Bracket Predictions Update: Xavier, Kansas State Improve NCAA Resumes

March 2, 2014 - by Jordan Sperber

Here’s a look at how some of yesterday’s games impacted the 2014 NCAA bracket prediction landscape:

Xavier builds bracket resume with victory over Creighton

Back in January, the Big East looked like a three team race. After going undefeated in December, Xavier opened Big East play at 5-1 — then preceded to drop five out of their next eight games, landing themselves a spot on the NCAA bracket bubble. Just last week, we gave Xavier a 43% chance to make the tournament.

However, Xavier delivered when needed, capping off an impressive week with a win against Doug McDermott and Creighton yesterday. Today, our 2014 bracketology projections not only have the Musketeers as nearly a lock to make the NCAA tournament (84.6%), but just under a 60% chance of getting an eight seed or better.

Xavier closes out Big East play with a Seton Hall road game and a Villanova home game. A split should take most of the pressure off Xavier heading into postseason play. Still, seeding will be on the line for Xavier in the Big East tournament.

Chris Mack’s squad has looked like a potential Sweet 16 team at times this year, and moving up to the six or seven line would greatly help those aspirations.

Kansas State beats Iowa State, moves off NCAA tourney bubble

Kansas State has one of the more underrated defenses in the country, ranking first in the entire Big 12 in defensive efficiency. The Wildcats were able to slow down Iowa State’s high-powered offense on Saturday, and notched a key win.

As a result, Kansas State could now actually lose all its remaining games and still project as 85% favorites to make the 2014 bracket. With just one more win, either to close the season or in the conference tourney, Kansas State becomes a virtual lock to dancing. The Wildcats finish the regular season with Oklahoma State and Baylor.

It remains to be seen if Marcus Foster and company have enough offense to make some noise in March. The Wildcats rely heavily on their freshman guard to create on the offensive side of the ball, and Foster has shot the ball extremely well from deep of late (for the curious, here’s Marcus Foster’s season game log). He will have to continue to improve on his efficiency for Kansas State to make a deep run.

Biggest bracketology gainers & losers of the day

To wrap up, here’s a snapshot of all the biggest bracket projection moves after Saturday’s games (click to enlarge):