What Are Seed Gifts And Why Is Kansas Smiling? | Stat Geek Idol

March 23, 2012 - by Martin Manley

This is a Sweet 16 submission in our inaugural Stat Geek Idol contest. It was conceived of and written by Martin Manley of Upon Further Review.

Whenever most of us in my part of the world (Kansas City) think of the Kansas Jayhawks and NCAA upsets, we think in terms of Kansas being upset. After all, KU has lost to a team seeded eight or more places below the Hawks four times in Bill Self’s nine seasons – and this tournament isn’t over yet.

#2 Kansas escaped #10 Purdue by the skin of its teeth Sunday, but still has another giant-killer wanna-be waiting (#11 N.C. State) this Friday. So, it could still happen. If so, that would be five times in nine seasons – considerably more than any other team.

That’s what we think of when we talk upsets and Kansas. But, there is one other area that might surprise a few people. KU has been given a lot of gifts since the tournament went to 64 teams. By that I mean bracket upsets before Kansas played its next opponent.

What Are Seed Gifts?

This is the second part of my NCAA Tournament Upset series. I will address the question I brought up in Part I later, but for Part II, I thought it would be a good idea to look at what I call “Seed Gifts”. And, the reason is because of timing. Kansas is once again being handed a Final Four on a silver platter by the Seed Gods. It’s like most things in sports journalism. If KU loses on Friday, the story is meaningless on Saturday.

Seed Gifts are seeds of a team’s opponents which are more favorable than the worst-case scenario. In other words, #10 Purdue upset #7 St. Mary’s (good for Kansas = three Seed Gifts) and then #11 N.C. State upset #3 Georgetown (good for Kansas = 8 Seed Gifts). So far, Kansas has 11 Seed Gifts in this tournament.

Last year, Kansas was all but handed the Final Four, facing #9 (instead of #8) in the second round, #12 (instead of #4) in the Sweet Sixteen and #11 (instead of #2) in the Elite Eight. That’s 18 seeds more fortunate than the worst-case scenario. Of course, KU didn’t take full advantage of that, losing to #11 VCU and failing to make the Final Four, but that doesn’t change the fact that they were handed 18 Seed Gifts leading up to it.

The most famous of these in this area was 1988 when Kansas won the national title. KU was a #6 seed. In the second round, the team played a #14 (instead of #3). In the Sweet Sixteen, Kansas played a #7 (instead of #2). In the Elite Eight the opponent was #4 instead of #1. In 1988, KU was gifted 19 seeds prior to the Final Four. Add a #2 seed instead of a #1 seed as the opponent in the semifinals and Kansas’ total Seed Gifts were 20.

Even in KU’s other championship (2008), Kansas’ seeding prayers were answered by the Seed Gods. (#12 vs. #4) and (#10 vs. #2). That’s 16 Seed Gifts.

Now that we have perspective, it’s time to determine which teams, along with Kansas, have been gifted the most seeds since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985.

The Most Seed Gifts Ever Given By The Gods

After looking at KU’s two championships, an assumption you might make would be that most champions have been given some gifts along the way. While it is true that no champion since 1985 has had to face the worst case in all five rounds (first rounds not relevant), it is true that these two situations I mentioned for Kansas (1988, 20 Seed Gifts and 2008, 16 Seed Gifts) are unusual. In fact, they rank as #3 and #5 among the 27 tourney winners since 1985. (see table below)

Kansas is already sitting at 11 Seed Gifts for the 2012 tournament. Let’s imagine KU beats N.C. State and Ohio beats North Carolina this weekend. That scenario is not that far-fetched, NC’s point guard (Kendall Marshall) broke his wrist Sunday. The Tar Heels have little depth at that position because of prior injuries. Additionally John Henson is coming off a wrist injury and was in considerable pain in the game against Creighton.

If that scenario were to play out, Kansas would go against #13 Ohio instead of #1 North Carolina. That’s 12 Seed Gifts. Add it to the 11 the team already has and it would be 23. Should Kansas win it all and even if it played #1 seeds in the Final Four, it would be the easiest road any champion has ever had – one more Seed Gift than UNLV in 1990.

On the left side are all 27 champions with the number of Seed Gifts shown. On the right side are the most Seed Gifts shown regardless of championships. Analysis of all teams below the table.

*UNLV (Champion) faced (#8, #12, #11, #4, #3 = 38) instead of worst case scenario (#8, #4, #2, #1, #1 = 16). Difference (38 minus 16 = 22).

Note: In 1993, North Carolina (Champion) had a single Seed Gift. The Tar Heels played a #8, #4, #2 in the regionals and then a #2 and #1 in the Final Four. The #2 in the semifinals was, ironically, Kansas and represented the only Seed Gift Carolina received in that tournament.

Coincidentally, the two highest ever were in the same year – 1990. Arkansas played (#12 vs. #5), (#8 vs. #1), (#10 vs. #2), (#3 vs. #1) and then a #1 seed (UNLV) in the title game. That’s (7+7+8+2=24 Seed Gifts).

Besides Kansas’ four entries on the list, there are only two other schools with more than one – Florida and Michigan State (twice). So, it would seem probable that Kansas has been given the most Seed Gifts of any school since 1985.

Well, not quite. Actually Duke has been given the most. The Blue Devils haven’t been given a lot in any one season, just a lot of seasons. Through 2011.

Should Kansas beat N.C. State as well as Ohio beat North Carolina, KU’s 23 Seed Gifts will move the team past Duke’s total – even if Kansas loses to Ohio.

COOL FACTOID: With KU’s victory over Purdue, it gives Kansas 797 victories since 1985 – when the tournament went to 64 teams – breaking a tie with Duke (796).

At this very moment, and factoring in the teams that are scheduled to play Thursday and Friday, the Jayhawks have 75 just since 2003 – overwhelmingly more than any other school (next closest Wisconsin, 48). And, Kansas has the most since 2008 by a mile (51, next closest Baylor, 26).

The bottom line is that in Bill Self’s tenure (2004-12) the Seed Gods have been smiling upon Kansas. But, despite that, it’s been mostly early round upsets at the hands of much lower-seeded teams. Of course, there was that one exception and that covers a lot of sins. KU fans are hoping the Seed Gods are in a typically generous mood this weekend… because, who wants to play North Carolina?