TeamRankings.com College Basketball Daily Feast: Feb 28, 2011
February 28, 2011 - by David Hess
Welcome to the TeamRankings.com Daily Feast, where every weekday we stuff your head with the tastiest data-driven insights on college hoops.
Coffee & Cooler Talk: News And Results From Yesterday
In the most hyped game of the weekend, BYU completed a season sweep of San Diego State, winning at Viejas Arena by a score of 80-67. The Cougars jumped out to an early lead and kept the Aztecs at arm’s length for most of the game. As a result, BYU rose from #7 to #5 in our Predictive power ratings, while San Diego State dropped a spot to #9.
It was a given that a highly ranked team would lose in the above Mountain West battle, but several others went down this weekend in conference road games. Duke shot only 4 of 20 from three point range in losing to Virginia Tech, 64-60. Texas allowed 58 second half points to in allowing Colorado to come back from a 22 point deficit and beat the Longhorns 91-89. Arizona lost their second straight by being thoroughly outclassed by UCLA, 71-49. Finally, Pittsburgh was edged in overtime by Louisville, 62-59, though the Panthers were almost saved by a technical foul on one of Louisville’s male cheerleaders with one second left in OT. Each of these teams tumbled a couple spots in our Away power ratings.
Highly rated teams holding serve this weekend included: Kansas beating Oklahoma on the road, 82-70; Notre Dame coming back from three down at halftime to beat Seton Hall 60-48; Ohio State dominating Indiana, 82-61; Purdue handing Michigan State their worst loss in seven years, 67-47; and Wisconsin finishing a perfect home season by downing Northwestern 78-63.
Three other Big East games involving probable NCAA tournament teams ended with the road team victorious: Syracuse continued their excellent road play, winning at Georgetown by a score of 58-51; Steve Lavin’s surprising St. John’s squad won at Villanova, 81-68; and Connecticut beat Cincinnati, 67-59. Syracuse now has the best shot among these teams of winning the league’s automatic bid, with a 10.4% chance according to our latest Big East conference tournament simulation.
Finally, the biggest game that fits into none of the above categories: Kentucky avenged an earlier loss to Florida, beating the Gators at home, 76-68. This probably doesn’t come as much of a shock to anyone who has followed the Wildcats closely this year. They have one of the larger home court advantages in the country, ranking #16 in our Home Advantage power ratings.
The Horizon League regular season ended in a three-way tie for first between UW Milwaukee, Butler, and Cleveland State. Due to tiebreakers, their seeds in the conference tournament, which begins tomorrow, will be in the same order I just listed them. The top two seeds receive double byes to the semifinals, and the #1 seed gets home court advantage from that point on, meaning Cleveland State is at a huge structural disadvantage. Of course, that means we may get to see two extra games from Norris Cole, who may be the best player in the Horizon League.
The Big South tournament also begins on Tuesday. Coastal Carolina had the top seed wrapped up a couple games ago, but the standings were finalized with Saturday’s games. Presbyterian’s win and Gardner-Webb’s loss combined to drop Gardner-Webb into 9th place, meaning they’ll miss the conference tournament, along with Radford. Our Big South conference tournament simulation has Coastal Carolina as a large, but not prohibitive, favorite to win the league’s automatic NCAA bid.
Lunchtime Reading: Interesting Posts From Around The Blogosphere
Mike DeCourcy asks a few players and coaches how much conference championships are really worth. A couple of examples: John Calipari thinks they’re overrated, while Pitt forward Gilbert Brown thinks they’re underrated.
The new AP and Coaches polls come out today. See where we would have ranked the teams on our ballot by checking out our Predictive power ratings.
#24 Villanova at #10 Notre Dame A Big East game between a 9-7 team and a 12-4 team. All those who thought in the pre-season that the 12-4 team would be Notre Dame, raise your hand.
#30 Kansas St at #6 Texas Texas has lost two of three, while Kansas State has won four straight and is playing nearly as well as Texas over the last 10 games.
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