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March 13, 2012 - by Marc Daley
***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This is an entry in our inaugural Stat Geek Idol contest. The opinions and predictions expressed below do not represent the views of TeamRankings.com, and are solely those of the author. It was conceived of and written by Marc Daley and is cross posted at Nine Points And One Blocked Shot.
Mississippi Valley State
The Good: Top 20 in steals percentage, Top 40 in effectively forcing turnovers and opponents’ free throw percentage.
The Bad: opponents make half their shots against them, one of the worst D-1 teams in three-point defense (in other words, they make Vandy look like zone gods).
The Ugly: They play in the Southwestern Athletic Conference, which hasn’t had a tournament victory since 1993.
Western Kentucky
The Good: They have a Final Four appearance in their history and are 3-2 in their last five tournament games.
The Bad: They can’t throw the ball in the ocean (315th in effective field goal percentage) and opponents are automatic from the charity stripe (72.6%).
The Ugly: At one point they were 5-14 and were forced to get rid of a coach that was the Todd Haley of college hoops, meaning his former charges suddenly exploded if only to say “You are correct. We REALLY hated our coach.”
The play-in games haven’t exactly made for gripping, close action in the past four tourneys (average score for the game: 68-57). The Delta Devils will try to push the tempo a bit (much like coach Sean Woods’ playing days for the Kentucky “Unforgettables” of the early 90s) and have scored above 75 points a game on a dozen occasions this season. The Hilltoppers want to keep the game in the 60s (they only hit the 75 mark or above in three of their 15 wins). The key to the outcome is the Delta Devils’ lack of offensive efficiency (268th) meaning they just try to throw up a shot as soon as possible and hope that opponents don’t have the depth to match them. Against the SWAC where many teams are just trying to figure out how to maximize their small resources that strategy can actually work but Western has gotten smarter as the season has progressed.
My Prediction: Western Kentucky 71, MVSU 63.
BYU
The Good: Top 50 overall in Kenpom and RPI, top 25 in keeping opponents off the offensive glass and defensive efficiency.
The Bad: not a good offensive rebounding team themselves (205th).
The Ugly: No Jimmer Fredette or Danny Ainge to pull their fat from the fire in a close situation.
Iona
The Good: One of the best shooting teams in the field of 68 (4th in effective FG%, 2nd in 2pt %).
The Bad: They never get to the line (302nd in free throw attempts/field goal attempts percentage) and don’t block shots (325 in percentage of blocked shots/opponents FGA).
The Ugly: They have become the poster child for the lack of quality of bubble teams in recent years.
Blame it on religious fervor or just mediocre bubble teams but the fact that these guys are 14 seeds and First Four opponents speak to the lack of quality once you get below the Top 25. Both of last year’s First Four games were blowouts but if you’re a fan of offense this should be an entertaining affair in that respect (Iona topped the century mark three times, BYU scored above 70 in every win but one). Head says BYU but remembering VCU’s run last year after their credentials were called into question fires up the Gaels just enough to pull this one out.
My Prediction: Iona 89, Brigham Young 77.
Lamar
The Good: Could have used the “We REALLY hate our coach” strategy as a 180 and gone in the tank after Pat Knight threw them under the bus but caught fire instead.
The Bad: rank below 200th in 3 point and 2 point shooting percentage.
The Ugly: Actually had a good run of tournament play in the early 80s (4-3 from 1980-83) but have only one tournament game since then.
Vermont
The Good: Well, good for them in 2005 when they beat an exhausted Syracuse team in OT behind T.J. Sorrentine and Taylor Coppenrath but I still spit Sorrentine’s name in weak moments after too many Genny Cream Ales.
The Bad: 0-3 against 2012 tournament teams.
The Ugly: got in by virtue of a 51-43 donnybrook over Stony Brook which nearly forced me to go blind.
All the verbal abuse in the world won’t get Lamar to suddenly turn into the mid-80s Celtics when it comes to offensive efficiency but they can score points in bunches (very similar to Iona in points production but also very similar to Miss. Valley State in just throwing it up there and seeing what sticks). Unlike a lot of slow-tempo teams the Catamounts can score (seven games above 80) but I’m not expecting a quality product out of this matchup. Look for North Carolina to dispatch either opponent in the first five minutes on Friday but since you asked:
My Prediction: Lamar 74, Vermont 69.
South Florida
The Good: Finished third in a Big East that sent nine teams to the Dance (even though Seton Hall could have been number 10 and not gotten TOO much of an argument).
The Bad: Watching this team can be the equivalent of a mid-80s Georgetown/mid-90s Knicks marathon.
The Ugly: Didn’t score above 60 points in any of their last seven outings. Think about that. They couldn’t hit 1.5 points a minute. Factor in two possessions a game so they had about a 33 percent offensive percentage…man, I’m gonna puke.
California
The Good: Excellent at keeping teams off the boards despite not shooting that well themselves.
The Bad: Lost seven games in the Pac-12 which is on par with Berkeley second-tier YMCA league.
The Ugly: Got blown out by UNLV and Missouri to the tune of a 28-point average and didn’t beat an RPI Top 50 team all year.
I expect that the most entertaining aspect of this game will be if Stan Heath imitates Herm Edwards in a “Hello?!? You PLAY to WIN the GAME!” speech while looking at a reporter as if that person has two heads before coming to the next press conference chain-smoking Salems, muttering to himself and sporting an afro that looks half-chewed on (wait, Mike Davis did that in 2004). In all seriousness, while Cal has a decent record against the Big East in tournament play (lost to Pitt in 2002 but beat favorite Villanova in 1997) I think their lack of quality opponents factored in with a South Florida team that will lull them to sleep or tick them off will be their undoing.
My Prediction: South Florida 61 (yes, they will break the 60 mark!), California 55.
Thanks to Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com) for the stats.
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