Bracket Bubble: Weak SEC Tourney Means Bleak NCAA Outlook

March 12, 2014 - by Jordan Sperber

It’s been a strange season for a major conference when the 3-seed in the conference tournament has no legitimate at-large NCAA bid hopes. That’s the case in the SEC, where it appears that Georgia must win the conference tournament to make the NCAA bracket. Florida and Kentucky will almost certainly be representing the SEC in the NCAA tourney, but there are only three other SEC teams with good enough resumes to be called bubble teams.

The SEC conference tournament bracket will feature must-win quarterfinal games for Tennessee, Arkansas and Missouri. Our bracketology algorithm is currently projecting, on average, 2.9 NCAA tournament bids for the SEC. Three bids is more likely than two, but two bids wouldn’t be a total shocker either.

How will SEC tournament wins impact NCAA tournament bid odds?

The table below lists the chance that each team has to make the NCAA tournament, given how far it advances in the SEC tournament bracket.

NCAA Tournament Bid Odds by SEC Tournament Result
Seed	Team	Lose Play-In	Lose 1st Round	Lose Quarters	Lose Semis	Lose Finals	Win Finals
1	Florida	--	--	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Kentucky	--	--	94%	97%	99%	100%
3	Georgia	--	--	0%	1%	4%	100%
4	Tennessee	--	--	23%	57%	75%	100%
5	Arkansas	--	1%	3%	23%	54%	100%
6	Mississippi	--	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
7	LSU	--	0%	0%	0%	4%	100%
8	Missouri	--	1%	5%	16%	32%	100%
9	Texas A&M	--	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
10	Alabama	--	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
11	Vanderbilt	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
12	Auburn	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
13	South Carolina	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
14	Mississippi State	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%

Tennessee may well have the tragic honor of being the best team (statistically) left out of the field of 68. The Vols are currently ranked 22nd in our New Predictive Ratings. The only bubble teams ahead of them are Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh, but Tennessee’s tournament chances are the shakiest of all three. The Volunteers will likely get Arkansas in the quarterfinals. A loss to there might knock them out of the field entirely, but a win would raise their NCAA chances to 57% according to our current projections. A semifinal win over Florida would remove all doubt.
Arkansas did themselves no favor in their regular season finale by getting blown out at Alabama. Our projections indicate that Arkansas will probably have to win three games to get into the NCAA bracket. And as we know, the Razorbacks haven’t played well away from home.
If Missouri beats Texas A&M, they will likely meet Florida in the quarterfinals. Unfortunately for the Tigers, not even a huge Florida upset would likely get them into the tournament. If Missouri can get to the SEC bracket finals they could have a small shot at an at-large bid, but the Tigers need to pin their hopes on winning it all. Unfortunately for Missouri, our SEC tournament predictions give them just a 2% chance to do that.