Predictions & Odds For The 2014 NCAA Conference Tournament Brackets

With conference tournaments for the college basketball power conferences starting today, here’s a quick review of our predictions for each one, along with a link to see all teams, seedings, and round by round survival odds:

ACC Bracket Predictions 2014

Our New Ratings, which drive our conference tournament predictions, are high on Duke this year. Vegas futures also favor the Blue Devils to win the ACC tournament this year, but not by as wide a margin of probability. Given that the top four seeds in the ACC bracket are virtual locks to make the NCAA bracket, the side story in this tourney is whether a team like Pittsburgh or Florida State can make a run and lock up an NCAA bid. Interesting fact: 2-seed Syracuse is the top ranked team in the ACC in away games, according to our ratings.

American Bracket Predictions 2014

2-seed Louisville is the clear favorite (both by our ratings and by the sports books) to take home the first American Conference tournament championship. Interestingly, the Cardinals have actually played slightly better on the road than at home this year. Compared to Vegas, our odds are relatively pessimistic about Cincinnati and SMU’s chances to cut down the nets, but do see some value in Connecticut as a longshot pick to win it all.

Big East Bracket Predictions 2014

It’s a two-horse race in the Big East, with our odds giving Villanova and Creighton a combined 72% chance to cut down the Big East tournament nets. That’s in line with Vegas, and value looks tough to find here with the third most likely winner, St. Johns (or Xavier right after them) having a less than 7% chance to win it all and get an auto-bid to the NCAA tournament.

Big Ten Bracket Predictions 2014

The 2014 Big Ten tournament should be a fun one, with a wide open field. In fact, there are no less than five teams with tournament win odds between 15% and 22%. Out of the frontrunners, the closest thing to a value pick according to our odds would likely be 5-seed Ohio State, who was listed recently at 5-1 but projects as slightly better than that. A whopping seven teams in the Big Ten are still jockeying for NCAA tournament bids, so a lot of these games will make or break NCAA bracket dreams.

Big 12 Bracket Predictions 2014

In the Big 12 tournament bracket, Kansas is the clear frontrunner, despite a key injury to Joel Embiid. You then need to go all the way down to the 8-seed line to get the second most likely winner of the tourney, Oklahoma State (and Vegas agrees with us there). OSU and Iowa State both have a decent shot to steal Kansas’s thunder, but the main takeaway here is that our projections see Oklahoma (at 5/1) and Texas (at 10/1) as seriously overpriced by current Vegas futures odds.

Pac-12 Bracket Predictions 2014

Our Pac-12 bracket odds give Arizona at least a 50/50 shot of winning the Pac-12 tournament, with the next closest contender being 2-seed UCLA at around 15%, then 7-seed Oregon at only around 8%. As a result, there’s about a 1 in 3 chance that a major surprise winner of the Pac-12 tournament (i.e. any team besides Arizona or UCLA) grabs the NCAA tournament auto-bid. There will also be a lot of jockeying for bids and seeding going on for teams like Arizona State, Stanford, and Colorado, all teetering on the bubble.

SEC Bracket Predictions 2014 

Our predictions see a 70%+ chance that either Florida or Kentucky wins the SEC tournament this year. With 3-seed Georgia looking like a pretender and a horrible bet, a storyline here is whether Tennessee can upset Florida (or benefit from an upset of Florida by Texas A&M or Missouri) and make a run to the conference tournament finals, a course of events likely needed for the Vols to lock up a spot in the 2014 NCAA bracket. Despite Kentucky’s recent struggles, by our numbers, they do appear underrated by Vegas odds.

All 2014 Conference Tournament Brackets & Odds

We’re not biased toward big name conferences here at TeamRankings. In fact, our algorithms are predicting all of the 2014 NCAA Division 1 conference tournaments on the site. (Well, besides the silly SWAC, who decided at the last minute to reinstate four teams previously suspended from conference tournament play.) Click above for the full list.