Pac-12 Bracket Predictions 2013: 4-Seed Arizona Leads Wide Open Field Notes from the Sports Nerds

Pac-12 Bracket Predictions 2013: 4-Seed Arizona Leads Wide Open Field

2 comments - NCAA Basketball - posted by Jeff Haley on March 12, 2013

With the 2013 Pac-12 tournament bracket set and the Vegas action tipping off on Wednesday, here’s our conference tourney preview and Pac-12 bracket predictions.

Pac-12 Bracket Predictions & Tournament Preview

2013 Pac-12 tournament site: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Paradise, NV
2013 Pac-12 tournament dates: March 13th-16th, 2013

While UCLA won the regular season conference championship, no Pac-12 team really separated itself from the competition. The Bruins’ 13-5 record only put them a game ahead of Arizona, Oregon, and California in the end of the season standings. Our models indicate that this Pc-12 conference tourney title is up for grabs this week in Las Vegas.

4-seed Arizona is actually the favorite according to our models, with Sean Miller’s Wildcats having a 33 percent chance of winning the Pac-12 tournament. Overall, Arizona has been better than UCLA over the course of the season, although the Wildcats have lost both of their contests against the Bruins. Oregon and Cal also warrant consideration, with both teams’ fortunes seeming to flip during the month of February.

In Cal’s case, it was for the better, as Mike Montgomery’s team went 7-1 during National Bird-Feeding Month. Over the same span, Oregon went on a slide, dropping three games in February, and additionally losing on January 30th and in both of their games this month.

Bracketology Impact Of The Pac-12 Tournament

Despite the conference tournament being wide open, there doesn’t seem to be much chance of bracketology chaos resulting from the Pac-12 championship. All five of the conference’s best teams appear to be locks, or at least near-locks, for the NCAA tournament bracket, and there’s only about a 1 in 5 chance that any of the league’s bottom seven teams go on a run and take the Pac-12 title.

2013 Pac-12 Bracket Predictions

Using our algorithmic power ratings, here are the results of our computer simulations of the Pac-12 tournament bracket, in terms of round by round advancement odds:

Pac-12 Tournament Futures Odds & Value Analysis

As a comparison to our round by round Pac-12 bracket odds, here are recent futures betting odds that offshore casino Sportsbook.com is offering on the Pac-12 tournament. The number in parentheses represents the implied Pac-12 tournament champion odds that would make each bet a break-even proposition in the long run.

#4 Arizona: +180 (35.7% implied Pac-12 champion odds)
#1 UCLA: +350 (22.2%)
#3 Oregon: +700 (12.5%)
#8 Stanford: +700 (12.5%)
#2 California: +700 (12.5%)
#5 Colorado: +800 (11.1%)
#9 Arizona St: +2000 (4.8%)
#6 Washington: +2000 (4.8%)
The Field / Any Other Team: +2500 (3.9%)

Notice how the sum of the implied Pac-12 champion odds totals more than 100%. That’s just another example of how the deck is stacked against sports bettors; most futures bets are sucker’s bets with negative expected value. Here, though, as we’ve seen in at least one other conference with multiple contenders, a few teams actually have value based on our predictive ratings.

Both Oregon and California offer positive ROI as futures bets, although there is only about a 1 in 4 chance of either of those teams winning. There is also a positive ROI on The Field, but the odds are so low of that hitting that it’s probably not worth much of a look. None of the other teams make carries any value based on these futures odds. We thought Stanford could have value as an underseeded 8-seed, but the reality at +700 is quite the opposite.

Best Pac-12 Teams Against The Point Spread In 2013

With relatively small sample sizes, it’s typically best not to read too much into ATS records if you’re considering a wager on the Pac-12 tourney; a few close calls that go a team’s way over the course of a season can mean the difference between a good and a not-so-good record against the spread. However, it’s always interesting to look at teams’ relative ATS cover margins.

#10 Utah: 18-9-1 (66.7%) ATS, average ATS margin +2.2 points
#9 Arizona St: 16-10-0 (61.5%), +1.9
#5 Colorado: 16-12-0 (57.1%), +2.2

Worst Pac-12 Teams Against The Point Spread In 2013

#3 Oregon: 11-17-1 (39.3%) ATS, average ATS margin +0.3
#7 USC: 11-16-3 (40.7%), -0.8
#1 UCLA: 13-17-0 (43.3%), -1.4

Best Current Pac-12 Winning Streaks

If you think momentum coming into a tournament actually means something, point us to some solid evidence, because it’s a myth. However, a team on a hot streak may attract a lot of public money in the betting markets, potentially providing value in betting against them, and vice versa. For those that care, here are the top Pac-12 winning and losing streaks.

#8 Stanford (W2)
#10 Utah (W2)
#11 Washington St (W2)

Worst Current Pac-12 Losing Streaks

#9 Arizona St (L4)
#7 USC (L2)
#3 Oregon (L2)

Top Pac-12 Scorers vs. Division 1 Opponents

Allen Crabbe, California (18.6 points/game)
Brock Motum, Washington St (18.4 points/game)
Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA (18.3 points/game)

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