Notre Dame Is On Fire: A Closer Look At The Irish’s 5-Game Winning Streak

February 9, 2012 - by Beyond The Bets and TR Staff

In case you haven’t been following Big East basketball (a.k.a. you haven’t turned on ESPN on any weeknight for the past month), Notre Dame is on quite the tear.

If you’d bet $100 on the Fighting Irish to win each of their past five games, you’d be up a cool $1,305.

Why? Because not only are the Irish winning, but they’re doing it as underdogs. Take a look at their past five matchups:

vs. Syracuse (+9); won 67-58.
at Seton Hall (+6.5); won 55-42.
at Connecticut (+9); won 50-48.
vs. Marquette (+2.5); won 76-59.
at West Virginia (+7); won 55-51.

Notre Dame has covered the spread by an average of 15.8 points during the run, and in four of the five games, the Irish were listed at +245 or higher on the money line. It’s pretty obvious this team was severely undervalued over the past couple weeks, and that likely won’t still be the case going forward, but how on earth is Notre Dame doing it?

Looking Deeper At Notre Dame’s Streak

What makes this run so attention-grabbing is that it’s seemingly come out of nowhere. Most “experts” didn’t think Notre Dame would be good this season — they finished ninth in the Big East preseason poll. The TeamRankings 2012 college basketball preseason projected standings had a higher opinion of the Irish, forecasting them in 6th place with a 10-8 record, and ranking them 28th nationally.

For awhile, it seemed the general public might have had a better read on Notre Dame. The Irish started 5-4, and hope seemed virtually lost when star forward Tim Abromaitis suffered a torn ACL on Nov. 26.

But after what head coach Mike Brey described as a “dysfunctional” November and December, the Irish have finally started to turn a corner — and they’re doing it by slowing down games and playing lock-down defense.

There are a lot of stats you can dissect when examining Notre Dame’s hot stretch, but here are some key points.

The Irish are playing at a grinding pace. Leading up to the five-game winning streak, Notre Dame averaged 61.6 possessions per game in Big East play. During the streak, they’re averaging only 57.8 possessions, a difference of 3.8.
The Irish are taking and making more 3-pointers. While the number of 3’s Notre Dame is chucking up per game has slightly decreased from 22.2 to 20.2 attempts, that’s entirely due to the much slower pace. During the streak, 44.5% of Irish field goal attempts have been from three, compared to only 38.4% in prior Big East play. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has been much more accurate from beyond the arc, connecting at 35.6% three point field goal percentage instead of 26.3%. What does that lead to? A much improved effective field-goal percentage (from 44.4% to 51.1%) and more points per possession (0.99 to 1.05).
The Irish are locking down on D. It’s clear that opponents haven’t been comfortable playing at Notre Dame’s new slow-it-down pace, scoring only 51.6 points in five losses. That’s 11.1 points less than the Irish allowed in their previous Big East games. Their defensive efficiency has improved from 1.02 points per possession (about average) to a stingy 0.89, and it’s in large part the result of 20.3% opponent three point percentage and only a 39.1% opponent effective field-goal percentage. Given that opponents’ free throws have also dropped significantly, the Irish seem to be cutting off dribble penetration, forcing opponents to take (and miss) long, contested jump shots.

It’s no shock that four of Notre Dame’s five wins during the streak have also gone under the total, making the Irish’s total ‘under’ record in Big East play 9-2. Oddsmakers will surely adjust to all of these recent trends, but Brey seems to have finally found a team that can with with defense.