NCAA Bid Thieves: Who Could Still Shake Up 2014 Tourney Bracket?

March 7, 2014 - by Jordan Sperber

We are now fully in the midst of mid major conference tournament season. The first championship game takes place tomorrow in the Ohio Valley, with more coming the rest of the week. Most of these tournaments are 1-bid leagues, meaning that the only team representing the conference in the NCAA tournament will be the one that receives that automatic bid for winning the 2014 conference tournament.

Starting today and tomorrow, though, a few teams with actual at large hopes will begin their conference tourney runs. The Missouri Valley conference bracket includes one of those teams, Wichita State, who is a lock to make the NCAA bracket. Consequently, the MVC is a 1-bid league if Wichita State wins the conference tourney and a 2-bid league if not.

This leaves an opportunity for a potential “bid thief,” a team that makes the bubble even smaller for teams looking for an at-large NCAA bid, by unexpectedly winning a conference tournament.

Here’s a look at the three most realistic bid thieves set to play either today or tomorrow:

Missouri Valley NCAA Bid Thief: Northern Iowa

Missouri Valley NCAA Tournament Odds
Type	Team	Auto Bid	At Large \| No Auto
Favorite	Wichita State	71%	100%
Thief	Northern Iowa	12%	0%

Although Indiana State is the 2-seed in the MVC conference tournament bracket, our New Ratings actually favor 3-seed Northern Iowa. The two teams will likely meet in the league semis tomorrow.

Northern Iowa had some offensive success in their second meeting against Wichita State. The Panthers scored 1.11 points per possession in that game, the second most points per possession by a Wichita State opponent all season. Still, defense has been the main problem all season long for Northern Iowa.

There’s no uncertainty regarding bids in the Missouri Valley. Bubble teams around the country will be rooting for Wichita State to continue their undefeated season for three more games.

West Coast NCAA Bid Thief: Saint Mary’s

West Coast Conference NCAA Tournament Odds
Type	Team	Auto Bid	At Large \| No Auto
Favorite	Gonzaga	47%	94%
Favorite	BYU	29%	75%
Thief	Saint Mary's	14%	1%

After a 9-0 start, 2013-14 has been a disappointing season for a Saint Mary’s team full of veterans. The Gaels have five seniors and three juniors receiving minutes. However, that experience didn’t transfer into WCC success (or at least, not the recent success to which Saint Mary’s has become accustomed). The 4-seed in the WCC tournament bracket will play Pepperdine in the quarterfinals tomorrow, potentially setting up a semifinal match up with Gonzaga.

According to our West Coast Conference NCAA bracket projections, both BYU and Gonzaga are likely in the field as at large teams, and our numbers indicate there’s a 14% chance Saint Mary’s will steal a bid from a bubble team around the country.

In what seems to be a growing trend for these bid thieves, Saint Mary’s went winless in the regular season against the tournament favorites (BYU and Gonzaga). Still, the talented combo of forward Brad Waldow and guard Stephen Holt is a rare find in a WCC tournament 4-seed — but they will likely face the difficult task of beating both BYU and Gonzaga on back-to-back days to steal a bid.

Horizon League NCAA Bid Thief: Cleveland State

Horizon League NCAA Tournament Odds
Type	Team	Auto Bid	At Large \| No Auto
Favorite	Green Bay	65%	66%
Thief	Cleveland State	22%	0%

The top two seeds in the Horizon League get byes into tomorrow’s semi finals. Wisconsin-Green Bay, a team getting labeled as a 2014 NCAA tournament Cinderella pick by many, has the important advantage of playing both games on their home court. With those two things in mind, our predictions give 2 seed Cleveland State a 22% chance of winning the Horizon League tournament.

That information factors into our bracketology projections, which currently see Wisconsin-Green Bay as a likely 11-seed in the NCAA bracket come Selection Sunday, which is slightly better than consensus.

Cleveland State lost both meetings to Green Bay by double digits during the regular season, but these two teams are the best teams in the conference by a wide margin. In fact, both teams are the only two Horizon League schools ranked in the top 100 of our New predictive ratings.

Green Bay has just two home losses all year. Cleveland State will need some good fortune on their side, but an upset could shrink the bubble down a spot.