Wisconsin vs. North Carolina Matchup Preview: Key Numbers

March 25, 2015 - by Aaron Barzilai

Perhaps the juiciest matchup Thursday night pits Wisconsin against North Carolina in the early game (7:47 PM Eastern tip) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. The game features the 1 seeded (and 4th in our Predictive Rankings) Badgers against the marquee program of the 4 seeded (8th in Predictive Ranking) Tar Heels and will showcase multiple future pros on the floor.

At the moment, our models currently give Wisconsin a 69% chance to win the game, while the betting markets see them as 6 point favorites.

Wisconsin on Offense

As you’d expect from one of the top teams in the nation, Wisconsin has a a number of strengths. Most notably, they have the #1 offense in the nation on a per possession basis scoring 118.5 points per 100 possessions.  This fact is often overlooked by the general public since the team is only 46th in points per game as a result of playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation.  UNC’s defense ranks 82nd in the country allowing 95.4 points per 100 posessions.  What makes the Badgers offense so effective and does UNC have a chance to stop them?

  • Wisconsin leads the country by a wide margin in protecting the ball with only a 12.2% turnover rate.  The gap between the Badgers and 2nd ranked Davidson is 1.6%, the same as the gap between Davidson and Virginia, the 17th ranked team.  UNC ranks only 248th in the country at forcing turnovers, so expect very few miscues with the ball in Wisconsin’s hands.
  • The Badgers shoot the ball very efficiently.  Their effective FG% of 54.7% ranks 16th in the country.
    • In particular, Wisconsin is 7th in the nation on two-pointers shooting 55.4%.
    • They’re also 12th at the line with a 76.1% FT%, but they do not get to the line at a high rate.  They’re only 213th in FTA/FGA at 0.356.
    • Wisconsin doesn’t shoot the three particularly well as their 35.8 3P% ranks only 101st.  Their 3P rate is similarly slightly above average.

UNC’s defense is excellent from behind the three point line.  They allow teams to shoot only 30% from beyond the arc, ranking 12th in the nation.  Interestingly, teams take a high number of threes against the Tar Heels, as their three point rate allowed is 262nd with 36.8% of their opponents’ field goal attempts from behind the arc.  This generally seems to play right into UNC’s hands and could help when the teams face off if Wisconsin attempts more threes than usual.

North Carolina on Offense

North Carolina’s offense is not so shabby itself. Overall, the team is in the top 10% ranking 29th in the country by scoring 108.4 points per 100 possessions.  Wisconsin’s defense is comparable, ranking 34th and only allowing 93.1 points per 100 possessions.  What should we watch for when UNC has the ball?

  • The Tar Heels’ biggest strength is offensive rebounding. They rank 8th in offensive rebounding percentage, gathering 38.7% of their own misses. Fascinatingly, defensive rebounding percentage is a strength of Wisconsin as they are 3rd in the nation and only allow opponents to gather 21.5% of their misses. Prevailing on the glass here could dictate which team wins the game.
  • North Carolina is a below average team at getting to the line. Their 0.353 free throw attempts per field goal attempt is only 224th in the country.  Wisconsin leads the country in not sending teams to the line allowing only 0.207 free throw attempts per field goal attempt.  Couple those facts with UNC’s 70.3 FT% which is 138th in the nation and North Carolina should not expect to get lots of easy points from the charity stripe on Thursday.

Conclusion

While Wisconsin is the clear favorite, there are definitely avenues for North Carolina to pursue and earn the upset. The Tar Heels may need to dominate the offensive boards as they have all year to have a good shot at winning. This will be a tough challenge against Wisconsin’s defense and one that will be tougher if Kennedy Meeks doesn’t play or is not at full strength. He is UNC’s best offensive rebounder gathering 12.9% of misses himself which ranks 67th in the country.  Without his contribution, it could be a long night for North Carolina.