On the Bubble: Key Games Tonight With NCAA Bracket Implications

March 5, 2014 - by Jordan Sperber

Here’s a look ahead at two games tonight bound to impact the 2014 NCAA bracket prediction landscape:

St. Joseph’s vs. George Washington: Improbable roads to the NCAA tournament

According to our 2014 NCAA bracketology trends, no one has done more for their tournament hopes over the last three weeks than St. Joe’s. Over that time period, the Hawks have gone undefeated with wins against VCU and Dayton. St. Joe’s now has a 91% chance of dancing heading into tonight’s game at George Washington.

George Washington is another Atlantic-10 school likely to hear their name called on Selection Sunday; specifically, our NCAA bracket projections currently have their tournament bid odds at 72%. However, GW has had a much different road to the postseason than St. Joe’s. The Colonials were an early season surprise, getting off to an 11-1 start including a neutral court win versus Creighton.

St. Joe’s will attempt to do tonight what only Massachusetts has done this year: Win at George Washington. Both teams are in good enough shape to lose tonight and still get in the tourney, but the winner will lock themselves in while also improving odds for a better seed.

Take a look at how St. Joe’s and George Washington’s NCAA tournament odds have changed throughout the season (click to enlarge):

Colorado and Stanford battle to solidify NCAA tournament berths

Life without Spencer Dinwiddie hasn’t been easy for Colorado. Tad Boyle’s squad is just 6-6 since Dinwiddie’s injury. In addition, our New Ratings show Colorado ranked just 84th in the country in the last 10 games. Colorado has generally been successful at home without Dinwiddie, but has just one road win (USC) since the injury.

That’s not great news for a team that ends Pac-12 play on the road against Stanford and California. Our bracketology models currently give Colorado a 61% chance of dancing, but it remains to be seen how the committee will treat the Dinwiddie-less Buffaloes.

Stanford ends Pac-12 play with two home games against Colorado and Utah, and Johnny Dawkins’ job may depend on the Cardinal getting an NCAA tournament bid this year. Even after an 0-2 road trip in Arizona last week, Stanford’s NCAA bid odds only dropped a hair, to just under an 80% chance of making the field of 68. The odds appear to be in Stanford’s favor going forward, but a third straight loss to a team that struggles on the road would raise eyebrows.

Take a look at how Colorado and Stanford’s NCAA tournament odds have changed throughout the season (click to enlarge):

Of course, you can check our bracketology pages tomorrow morning to see how our models have adjusted the NCAA tournament bid odds for all four of these teams.