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November 14, 2011 - by David Hess
Oh, to be a college student again.
In roughly four hours, ESPN kicks off what is quickly becoming a tradition — their 24 hour college basketball marathon, with games ranging from South Alabama at Hawaii in the wee hours of the morning to Kentucky versus Kansas in prime at Madison Square Garden.
To help you prepare for this bacchanal celebration of the student-athlete, we’ve prepared a brief viewing guide. The emphasis here is on the word “brief” as we know anyone who finds this guide useful will have plenty on their plate in the coming day. We want to be nothing but a divining rod for your viewing pleasure.
For each game below, the Hotness Score is adapted from our college basketball schedule page, while the final score is derived from our Similar Games prediction model. The rankings for each team are those of our new predictive power ratings which take our preseason ratings into account.
Hotness Score: 3***
Predicted Score: Gonzaga 74 – 62 Washington State
What To Watch For: Gonzaga will have the toughest road to the West Coast Conference crown that they’ve had in years, with both St. Mary’s and BYU nipping at their heels. Watch to see if they struggle with Washington State at home, because if they do they may be in trouble in the WCC.
Hotness Score: 3***
Predicted Score: St. Mary’s 73 – 61 Northern Iowa
What To Watch For: Our power ratings are a little wonky for the first couple games of the season. The Gaels are likely the better team here, but they’re still figuring out how to replace Mickey McConnell. Watch to see how Matthew Dellavedova handles being the go-to guy for St. Mary’s.
Hotness Score: 2**
Predicted Score: Hawaii 72 – 66 Cal State Northridge
What To Watch For: One of the only two clunkers on the schedule, but at least it projects to be a relatively close game. Watch this one because you freaking love college basketball. There’s no other reason.
Hotness Score: 3***
Predicted Score: Rider 69 – 67 Drexel
What To Watch For: Rider lost their first two games, while Drexel hasn’t hit the court yet. Watch this one because a team hungry for a win versus a better team that’s a bit rusty is a recipe for a game that comes down to the buzzer.
Hotness Score: 1*
Predicted Score: College of Charleston 74 – 64 Morehead State
What To Watch For: Don’t watch this one. Seriously, if you need a power nap to get you through the night, this is the game for that. If you do make it through this one, watch to see how College of Charleston is going to replace Andrew Goudelock, one of the best players you never heard of.
Hotness Score: 3***
Predicted Score: West Virginia 73 – 64 Kent State
What To Watch For: The Mountaineers were forecast to go 9-9 in our preseason college basketball projections. Watch this game because UConn proved last year that a middle of the pack Big East team is possible national championship material, and you need to get your scout on.
Hotness Score: 5*****
Predicted Score: Belmont 70 – 63 Memphis
What To Watch For: We put Belmont at #14 in our preseason ratings, which is a good bit higher than most other prognosticators. They made us look smart in their first game by taking Duke down to the wire in Cameron. Watch this game to see the best small-conference school in the country notch a win over an AP top 25 team. This is March basketball, played in November.
Hotness Score: 5*****
Predicted Score: Baylor 72 – 71 San Diego State
What To Watch For: Baylor is the pick by many to win the Big 12 regular season title, while San Diego State is expected to take a step back after losing Kawhi Leonard. But our projections actually have SDSU closer to the top of the MVC than Baylor is to the top of the Big 12. Watch this one to see if the upstart mid-major Aztecs can pull off a major win and prove they belong in the discussion for front runner of the MVC, as well as demonstrate that this year’s Big 12 is anybody’s for the taking.
Hotness Score: 3***
Predicted Score: Texas 75 – 63 Rhode Island
What To Watch For: Texas lost a boatload of talent last year, but they return J’Covan Brown, who was second on the team in points per minute behind Jordan Hamilton. Watch this one to see how Brown handles being the man, rather than a complimentary piece. If he can average 20 points per game this year, the Longhorns could be dangerous.
Hotness Score: 5****
Predicted Score: Duke 73 – 67 Michigan State
What To Watch For: Duke struggled to put away Belmont at home in game one, while the Spartans were tossed over the bulwark in the Carrier Classic by a preening North Carolina squad. Both teams need to assert their authority in order to allay fears that they’re on the downswing. Odds are that Duke will be the one to do it. Watch this one because Krzyzewski versus Izzo only comes along every so often, and even in down years they both get the most out of their troops. It’s only November, but when March rolls around this game could be a major feather in either team’s cap.
Hotness Score: 4****
Predicted Score: Ohio State 75 – 64 Florida
What To Watch For: This game features two teams whose names have been bandied about as possible Final Four candidates. You could watch this for that reason alone, but watch it also because the Buckeyes return National Player-of-the-Year favorite Jared Sullinger, who could have an absolutely dominant season in the interior.
Hotness Score: 5*****
Predicted Score: Kentucky 69 – 68 Kansas
What To Watch For: The marquee matchup of the evening, this game pits two teams who are relying heavily on freshmen or other players who have hugely increased roles this year. It may be one of the only games of the year where Kentucky is more experienced than their opponent, and it’s the first game in a long time where Kansas is obviously less talented then their foe. Still, if Thomas Robinson can hold his own against Terrence Jones (a big if), and if the Wildcats display some freshmen foibles, the Jayhawks could pull off a minor shocker. Watch this one because of all the games tonight, this one features the best team (Kentucky) and the highly-ranked team with the most questions to be answered (Kansas).
Hotness Score: 3***
Predicted Score: California 74 – 68 Austin Peay
What To Watch For: California is being touted by many as the heir to the Pac-12 thrown now that UCLA has shown they may not be all that good (an opinion we shared a few days earlier). We tend to agree – the Golden Bears have a great shot at the Pac-12 title. However, the real reason to watch this is because it’s the last 2 hours of the 24-hour marathon. If you make it through 22 hours and then crash out on this one, you’ll be kicking yourself in the morning.
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