Duke’s Road to the Final Four & Championship

March 18, 2015 - by Aaron Barzilai

Previously, we looked at Kentucky and Villanova’s path to the National Championship. Today, let’s look at a team not nicknamed the Wildcats: the South 1 seed Duke Blue Devils.

We can drill into the data we have used while generating optimized bracket picks for you. Duke’s progression of game win odds, as it turns out, is quite comparable to Villanova’s.

Duke’s Odds by Round

We’ve released our round by round survival odds for each team that made the tournament. From those numbers, we can determine the chances Duke wins in each round, if they make it there:

Duke's Odds to Win By Round

Some indications from the chart above:

  • Duke will be strongly favored through their Sweet 16 game
  • The challenge Duke will face in both their Elite 8 and Final Four game is expected to be roughly comparable. For both games, Duke is expected to be a moderate favorite if they make it.
  • If they make the final, the Blue Devils are likely to be moderate underdogs.

Duke’s Odds against the South

Using our matchup tool, we can examine the odds of a team to win against any other opponent in the South region:

Duke's Odds to Win Against Teams in the South Region

Key points of note here:

  • Duke’s toughest game would be in the Regional Final against Gonzaga, where Duke would be only slightly favored
  • 3 seed Iowa State and 5 seed Utah are the next tier of opponents, somewhat less challenging than Gonzaga
  • Due to the structure of the bracket, Duke could have a tough second week of the tournament if they have to face Utah followed by Gonzaga
  • Duke’s win odds against any other team in the region are 76% or better

Duke’s Odds against the Top Seeds

We can also look at Duke’s odds against the top seeds in the tournament:

Duke's Odds Against the Top Seeds

The highlights:

  • Kentucky, Arizona, and Wisconsin are the only three teams that our odds would favor against Duke (and the Wisconsin game is close to a tossup)
  • With the Midwest and West on the opposite side of the bracket, Duke would have to face only of them

The real question, though, is this: How far should you pick Duke to give you the best chance to win your bracket pool? Here’s how to find out.