College Basketball Preseason Ratings For All 347 Teams Notes from the Sports Nerds

College Basketball Preseason Ratings For All 347 Teams

8 comments - NCAA Basketball - posted by David Hess on November 5, 2012

We released our official college basketball preseason top 25 Monday afternoon. Now, here’s our full ranking from 1 to 347, along with the key factors behind each team’s rating, and projected schedule strengths for the upcoming season.

Let’s go over what each column shows.

First, the columns that show our projections, along with basic team data:

Rank — Do we really need to explain this one? 1 is good. 347 is bad.
Team — Again, pretty self explanatory. However, note the links. These lead to individual team projection pages, which include many cool auto-updating data nuggets. Projected win distribution, easiest and toughest remaining games, odds to be each seed in the conference tournament along with the odds to win said tournament if they get said seed (this one we’re still tweaking, should be available by Friday), projected conference standings, and more.
Conf — Conference.
Rating — Projected team rating. This is expressed in “points above average” which basically means this is the expected score margin for a game against a hypothetical average opponent … or against Loyola Marymount, if that’s easier to grok.
W-L — Projected win-loss record. Note that this only includes currently scheduled games. Any possible games the team could end up playing in preseason tournaments (like the Maui Invitational), conference tournaments, or the NCAA tournament are not included.

The last four columns are the most important data points that go into our projections. This isn’t everything, but these four will get you most of the way there.

11-12 Rank — The most important factor. This is a team’s rank from last season. Good teams one year tend to be good teams the next year.
Ret. Off% — This is a single number that tries to capture how much of a team’s offensive value is returning for this season. Every player is given a value based on last year’s offensive rating, usage rate, and minutes played. Then we use this year’s rosters to figure out how much of that value is returning. Pretty simple in practice, pretty complicated to implement.
Ret. Def% — Same as above, except using defensive stats rather than offensive.
Rec + Trans — A single number that summarizes the projected value of a team’s new recruits and Division I transfers. Juco transfers are ignored, but we’d wager that’s not a huge issue.

For more info on the returning offense and returning defense values, check out our post from last year that lays out how we calculate returning value.

The four values above (along with some much-less-important variables related to how important returning freshmen were to each team, team ratings from previous seasons, and AP poll voting) are combined using an equation we found by examining historical data. The result is a team’s preseason rating.

The main purpose of these preseason ratings is to drive our college basketball projection pages. Right now, those are 100% based on these preseason ratings. As the year progresses, the preseason ratings will become less and less important, until they are nearly irrelevant at the end of the season.

But the secondary purpose of these rating is to give us something to talk about in the preseason! There are a ton of projections below; we’re sure there’s at least one you have a strong opinion on. So tell us about it! Are we crazy for ranking Michigan so low? Or is there a transfer for your favorite team that you think isn’t getting enough credit in our projections? Leave a comment in the discussion thread below, and we’ll respond as soon as we can.

Finally, here it is: the biggest freakin’ data table you’ve ever seen on a blog.

2012-13 Preseason College Basketball Ratings (All Teams)

Rank	Team	Conf	Rating	W-L	11-12 Rank	Ret. Off%	Ret. Def%	Rec + Trans
1	Kentucky	SEC	19.7	27-4	1	5%	6%	11.1
2	Indiana	Big Ten	17.9	25-5	9	85%	82%	1.2
3	Florida	SEC	17.7	25-6	10	64%	66%	3.6
4	Ohio State	Big Ten	17.2	23-7	2	55%	62%	0.0
5	UCLA	Pac-12	16.8	25-5	54	63%	59%	8.8
6	Kansas	Big 12	16.5	23-7	4	50%	56%	1.2
7	Michigan St	Big Ten	16.3	23-8	3	52%	57%	1.1
8	Duke	ACC	15.3	22-7	14	63%	64%	1.4
9	Marquette	Big East	15.3	21-8	13	42%	60%	3.8
10	Wisconsin	Big Ten	15.3	22-8	8	49%	63%	1.7
11	Baylor	Big 12	15.0	21-8	15	48%	47%	4.3
12	N Carolina	ACC	14.9	22-7	5	28%	33%	3.3
13	Missouri	SEC	14.7	23-6	7	32%	29%	4.6
14	Louisville	Big East	14.6	21-8	19	45%	65%	3.1
15	Gonzaga	WCC	14.6	24-5	25	77%	74%	1.6
16	Syracuse	Big East	14.4	23-8	6	45%	49%	1.2
17	UNLV	MWC	14.4	24-6	24	55%	62%	4.4
18	Saint Louis	A-10	14.4	24-5	18	72%	78%	1.7
19	New Mexico	MWC	14.3	22-7	17	72%	64%	1.3
20	Kansas St	Big 12	14.3	20-8	22	84%	81%	0.0
21	Arizona	Pac-12	14.2	22-6	45	41%	51%	8.2
22	Notre Dame	Big East	13.8	23-7	43	91%	92%	1.2
23	Memphis	CUSA	13.8	24-5	12	60%	67%	0.3
24	Pittsburgh	Big East	13.4	21-7	62	67%	71%	4.8
25	NC State	ACC	13.2	21-8	39	72%	68%	3.8
26	Creighton	MVC	12.9	23-6	29	85%	88%	0.0
27	Davidson	Southern	12.5	23-4	61	98%	94%	1.4
28	Miami (FL)	ACC	12.3	20-8	48	87%	83%	1.2
29	Ohio	MAC	12.0	25-5	68	98%	97%	1.5
30	Iowa State	Big 12	11.8	21-9	32	54%	55%	4.4
31	Minnesota	Big Ten	11.7	18-11	46	86%	85%	0.4
32	W Virginia	Big 12	11.7	19-10	41	33%	61%	4.1
33	San Diego St	MWC	11.5	20-8	66	81%	76%	2.3
34	Georgetown	Big East	11.4	19-10	16	45%	53%	0.5
35	St Josephs	A-10	11.4	20-8	63	100%	100%	0.0
36	Belmont	OVC	11.3	21-5	21	61%	64%	1.9
37	Illinois	Big Ten	11.2	19-11	64	59%	70%	4.2
38	Texas	Big 12	11.1	18-11	27	49%	59%	1.0
39	Michigan	Big Ten	10.9	17-11	31	56%	55%	1.8
40	St Marys	WCC	10.8	22-6	35	66%	62%	1.2
41	Temple	A-10	10.6	22-9	40	52%	57%	3.6
42	California	Pac-12	10.5	19-9	28	67%	66%	0.5
43	Tennessee	SEC	10.4	18-10	65	89%	79%	0.0
44	Stanford	Pac-12	10.3	19-10	36	70%	67%	0.3
45	Alabama	SEC	10.2	20-10	30	64%	67%	0.6
46	U Mass	A-10	10.2	19-8	75	90%	88%	1.8
47	Cincinnati	Big East	10.2	19-11	33	67%	70%	0.0
48	Wichita St	MVC	10.1	21-8	11	24%	36%	3.0
49	VCU	A-10	9.8	20-9	51	75%	85%	0.0
50	N Iowa	MVC	9.3	19-9	80	91%	85%	0.2
51	Oklahoma	Big 12	9.3	16-12	92	91%	78%	1.7
52	Florida St	ACC	9.3	19-11	23	59%	35%	0.3
53	Connecticut	Big East	9.2	17-11	37	46%	45%	2.3
54	Washington	Pac-12	9.2	19-11	52	50%	54%	3.2
55	Seton Hall	Big East	9.0	19-11	55	50%	63%	3.2
56	Oral Roberts	Southland	8.9	23-5	91	65%	84%	2.7
57	Virginia	ACC	8.7	17-11	34	45%	58%	2.0
58	Villanova	Big East	8.7	17-13	81	48%	74%	3.0
59	Butler	A-10	8.6	18-11	120	76%	70%	3.2
60	La Salle	A-10	8.5	19-10	57	78%	71%	1.1
61	Drexel	CAA	8.1	20-8	67	81%	83%	0.0
62	Colorado St	MWC	8.0	19-11	88	83%	80%	1.1
63	Middle Tenn	Sun Belt	8.0	23-8	50	78%	78%	0.1
64	VA Tech	ACC	8.0	19-11	72	68%	62%	1.6
65	S Dakota St	Summit	8.0	22-8	56	86%	82%	0.0
66	Murray St	OVC	8.0	21-5	47	56%	59%	1.7
67	BYU	WCC	8.0	21-9	42	52%	64%	0.0
68	S Florida	Big East	7.9	17-13	60	57%	55%	2.6
69	Providence	Big East	7.8	16-12	127	78%	70%	4.0
70	Richmond	A-10	7.7	19-12	104	97%	94%	0.0
71	Illinois St	MVC	7.5	19-10	90	88%	87%	0.2
72	Oklahoma St	Big 12	7.5	15-13	93	56%	75%	1.5
73	Purdue	Big Ten	7.1	15-15	26	32%	45%	0.3
74	Oregon	Pac-12	7.1	19-11	58	41%	45%	3.4
75	Northwestern	Big Ten	6.9	16-14	69	55%	57%	1.8
76	Akron	MAC	6.4	19-8	76	77%	66%	0.2
77	Oregon St	Pac-12	6.4	18-12	74	76%	77%	0.0
78	Mississippi	SEC	6.4	17-12	100	86%	71%	0.1
79	Xavier	A-10	6.3	16-12	53	14%	29%	4.2
80	Lehigh	Patriot	6.3	19-6	86	83%	78%	0.0
81	Arkansas	SEC	5.9	17-13	114	70%	57%	2.6
82	Bucknell	Patriot	5.9	21-9	102	96%	86%	0.0
83	St Bonavent	A-10	5.7	16-13	59	62%	66%	0.0
84	Mercer	A-Sun	5.7	21-8	99	83%	85%	0.5
85	Rutgers	Big East	5.7	15-14	116	85%	85%	0.5
86	Penn State	Big Ten	5.6	14-14	132	77%	68%	2.3
87	N Mex State	WAC	5.6	21-10	70	37%	51%	2.6
88	Iowa	Big Ten	5.1	15-15	96	67%	71%	0.4
89	Colorado	Pac-12	5.1	14-14	78	54%	62%	0.5
90	USC	Pac-12	5.0	13-16	197	100%	54%	4.3
91	Nevada	MWC	4.9	16-14	113	72%	64%	1.5
92	Iona	MAAC	4.8	17-10	44	32%	33%	2.2
93	Marshall	CUSA	4.8	18-13	79	51%	64%	0.5
94	Wagner	NEC	4.8	21-7	101	69%	76%	1.3
95	Vanderbilt	SEC	4.8	13-15	20	4%	21%	1.1
96	Dayton	A-10	4.7	15-13	71	36%	41%	1.9
97	Rob Morris	NEC	4.7	20-8	129	99%	88%	-0.1
98	Oakland	Summit	4.6	18-12	159	92%	80%	1.6
99	E Carolina	CUSA	4.6	18-11	124	79%	76%	1.6
100	North Texas	Sun Belt	4.6	20-8	160	100%	79%	1.6
101	Manhattan	MAAC	4.5	18-10	123	84%	80%	1.1
102	TX El Paso	CUSA	4.3	15-12	134	63%	68%	1.8
103	S Mississippi	CUSA	4.3	18-13	73	40%	36%	2.0
104	Maryland	ACC	4.2	17-14	135	22%	43%	4.9
105	Valparaiso	Horizon	4.0	18-11	144	79%	80%	0.8
106	Lg Beach St	Big West	3.8	18-11	38	29%	30%	1.4
107	WI-Grn Bay	Horizon	3.8	18-11	179	96%	74%	2.5
108	N Dakota St	Summit	3.7	19-10	145	95%	85%	0.0
109	Boise State	MWC	3.6	15-15	126	80%	72%	0.0
110	Denver	WAC	3.6	17-11	84	56%	67%	0.0
111	Clemson	ACC	3.5	13-15	85	30%	54%	0.3
112	Col Charlestn	Southern	3.4	19-9	158	75%	75%	2.0
113	Montana	Big Sky	3.3	20-8	106	73%	58%	0.0
114	Wyoming	MWC	3.3	16-14	83	50%	51%	0.9
115	Texas A&M	SEC	3.3	16-14	117	60%	53%	0.4
116	Wash State	Pac-12	3.3	15-15	98	50%	45%	0.4
117	Missouri St	MVC	3.2	16-14	89	54%	54%	0.0
118	Cleveland St	Horizon	3.2	17-10	82	43%	48%	0.5
119	Georgia	SEC	3.0	14-16	108	49%	70%	0.0
120	Princeton	Ivy	2.9	17-11	107	69%	69%	0.0
121	GA Tech	ACC	2.9	14-14	157	67%	78%	0.6
122	Utah State	WAC	2.9	19-10	125	70%	56%	0.3
123	SC Upstate	A-Sun	2.9	20-11	148	93%	92%	0.0
124	UAB	CUSA	2.8	14-15	131	55%	54%	1.3
125	Northeastrn	CAA	2.8	17-11	199	100%	64%	2.7
126	St Johns	Big East	2.7	12-16	152	74%	65%	0.6
127	Detroit	Horizon	2.6	17-13	122	64%	54%	1.6
128	Geo Mason	CAA	2.6	16-12	109	43%	60%	0.8
129	Central FL	CUSA	2.5	16-14	111	58%	56%	0.5
130	Loyola-MD	MAAC	2.5	19-10	138	81%	70%	0.6
131	Arkansas St	Sun Belt	2.4	19-10	194	78%	76%	3.2
132	Duquesne	A-10	2.2	14-16	112	37%	41%	1.7
133	Harvard	Ivy	2.2	16-12	49	35%	36%	0.0
134	Fresno St	MWC	2.2	12-17	177	72%	68%	2.7
135	LIU-Brooklyn	NEC	2.1	19-11	161	86%	84%	0.2
136	Evansville	MVC	2.0	15-15	130	67%	70%	0.0
137	Tulane	CUSA	2.0	20-11	170	96%	86%	0.0
138	DePaul	Big East	1.9	13-17	162	74%	80%	0.0
139	Drake	MVC	1.9	12-15	140	58%	46%	1.8
140	LSU	SEC	1.9	13-16	94	37%	45%	0.5
141	Kent State	MAC	1.8	17-13	119	51%	34%	1.5
142	Old Dominion	CAA	1.7	17-13	115	45%	39%	1.2
143	Auburn	SEC	1.7	13-16	151	65%	52%	1.3
144	Arizona St	Pac-12	1.7	15-15	213	48%	53%	4.2
145	TX-Arlington	WAC	1.6	16-12	105	44%	64%	0.3
146	Delaware	CAA	1.4	16-12	172	98%	79%	0.1
147	S Carolina	SEC	1.4	15-15	156	39%	50%	2.1
148	CS Fullerton	Big West	1.4	18-11	165	44%	38%	4.0
149	Fla Gulf Cst	A-Sun	1.2	18-12	175	97%	82%	0.7
150	Weber State	Big Sky	1.2	20-8	128	53%	64%	0.0
151	Buffalo	MAC	1.2	14-15	95	36%	49%	0.2
152	Air Force	MWC	1.1	12-16	181	95%	81%	0.0
153	Vermont	Am. East	1.0	19-9	133	56%	65%	0.3
154	Charlotte	A-10	0.9	12-16	146	58%	66%	0.0
155	Fairfield	MAAC	0.8	14-13	118	50%	52%	0.1
156	TX Christian	Big 12	0.7	13-17	155	46%	58%	1.4
157	Columbia	Ivy	0.6	16-11	187	89%	83%	0.9
158	Toledo	MAC	0.6	15-11	206	81%	86%	2.0
159	Georgia St	CAA	0.6	17-14	87	32%	24%	1.3
160	NC-Asheville	Big South	0.6	18-10	110	39%	40%	1.3
161	Morehead St	OVC	0.5	17-13	216	100%	98%	0.1
162	S Alabama	Sun Belt	0.5	16-12	200	76%	80%	1.3
163	Savannah St	MEAC	0.5	18-11	190	100%	100%	0.0
164	Quinnipiac	NEC	0.4	18-10	166	77%	77%	0.0
165	Geo Wshgtn	A-10	0.4	11-18	171	65%	66%	0.9
166	Tulsa	CUSA	0.3	15-15	97	26%	25%	0.6
167	American	Patriot	0.2	17-12	182	31%	49%	4.2
168	UCSB	Big West	0.1	16-13	103	34%	40%	0.0
169	WI-Milwkee	Horizon	0.0	15-14	139	50%	46%	0.7
170	Loyola Mymt	WCC	0.0	13-14	142	51%	61%	0.9
171	San Fransco	WCC	-0.1	14-14	147	60%	54%	0.5
172	Indiana St	MVC	-0.1	11-16	143	51%	42%	0.9
173	Miss State	SEC	-0.1	12-16	77	15%	18%	0.0
174	Nebraska	Big Ten	-0.2	10-20	137	37%	24%	1.5
175	Bowling Grn	MAC	-0.2	14-13	136	49%	56%	0.1
176	Miami (OH)	MAC	-0.2	13-15	184	40%	61%	2.0
177	Youngs St	Horizon	-0.3	15-14	169	74%	68%	0.0
178	TN State	OVC	-0.4	15-14	180	85%	77%	0.0
179	Niagara	MAAC	-0.4	15-14	246	94%	87%	1.1
180	Idaho	WAC	-0.4	14-14	153	50%	63%	0.2
181	Wake Forest	ACC	-0.6	10-18	193	83%	44%	0.3
182	Houston	CUSA	-0.7	17-12	174	41%	55%	1.2
183	Boston Col	ACC	-0.8	11-18	256	90%	71%	1.3
184	UC Irvine	Big West	-0.9	15-15	248	100%	98%	0.4
185	Santa Clara	WCC	-0.9	15-15	278	98%	86%	2.4
186	Texas Tech	Big 12	-1.0	11-18	219	100%	56%	0.0
187	San Diego	WCC	-1.0	15-16	230	88%	89%	0.2
188	Ste F Austin	Southland	-1.1	19-9	168	52%	61%	0.0
189	S Illinois	MVC	-1.1	11-17	220	62%	56%	1.8
190	Cornell	Ivy	-1.1	16-14	205	41%	69%	1.4
191	CS Bakersfld	Ind.	-1.3	15-14	238	65%	68%	3.4
192	E Tenn St	A-Sun	-1.3	14-15	150	40%	46%	0.3
193	Charl South	Big South	-1.4	17-10	178	72%	68%	0.0
194	Cal Poly	Big West	-1.4	14-14	164	48%	45%	1.4
195	James Mad	CAA	-1.4	15-16	239	77%	80%	1.4
196	N Florida	A-Sun	-1.5	14-16	191	86%	73%	0.0
197	TX-San Ant	WAC	-1.5	13-16	167	52%	45%	0.8
198	Stony Brook	Am. East	-1.6	17-12	154	49%	57%	0.0
199	W Illinois	Summit	-1.6	15-12	186	85%	64%	0.0
200	W Kentucky	Sun Belt	-1.6	15-15	204	60%	67%	0.0
201	Jksnville St	OVC	-1.7	14-12	225	100%	78%	0.2
202	Miss Val St	SWAC	-1.8	16-11	251	100%	100%	1.1
203	Yale	Ivy	-1.9	15-16	163	50%	53%	0.0
204	LA Tech	WAC	-2.0	15-16	202	61%	76%	0.0
205	Siena	MAAC	-2.1	13-16	227	63%	51%	1.4
206	Sacred Hrt	NEC	-2.1	15-14	240	92%	92%	0.0
207	GA Southern	Southern	-2.2	15-15	236	54%	68%	2.8
208	Stetson	A-Sun	-2.4	14-15	250	100%	85%	0.5
209	St Fran (NY)	NEC	-2.4	15-14	222	88%	77%	0.0
210	Pacific	Big West	-2.4	13-15	271	100%	88%	0.0
211	IL-Chicago	Horizon	-2.5	12-15	283	75%	63%	3.2
212	Seattle	WAC	-2.6	14-15	221	42%	56%	2.6
213	Hawaii	Big West	-2.7	15-12	217	47%	45%	2.5
214	Bradley	MVC	-2.7	10-19	260	49%	70%	1.9
215	Delaware St	MEAC	-2.8	16-13	258	100%	100%	0.0
216	S Methodist	CUSA	-2.8	12-17	183	42%	48%	0.7
217	Rhode Island	A-10	-2.8	8-20	223	28%	24%	2.8
218	Marist	MAAC	-3.0	11-16	270	100%	100%	0.0
219	Fla Atlantic	Sun Belt	-3.2	14-16	185	57%	44%	0.3
220	Albany	Am. East	-3.2	17-12	201	58%	64%	0.0
221	IUPUI	Summit	-3.3	13-14	210	41%	45%	0.6
222	Boston U	Am. East	-3.4	14-14	192	54%	49%	0.0
223	Hofstra	CAA	-3.4	12-19	209	29%	43%	1.9
224	TN Tech	OVC	-3.4	13-15	198	46%	38%	1.5
225	W Michigan	MAC	-3.5	13-16	176	40%	40%	0.0
226	N Colorado	Big Sky	-3.5	15-13	247	82%	62%	0.0
227	Elon	Southern	-3.6	14-15	252	81%	81%	0.0
228	AR Lit Rock	Sun Belt	-3.7	14-16	173	35%	37%	0.3
229	Lamar	Southland	-3.7	12-15	121	7%	28%	0.0
230	Portland	WCC	-4.0	10-19	282	91%	81%	0.0
231	Utah	Pac-12	-4.0	10-20	303	100%	36%	3.6
232	Furman	Southern	-4.0	14-15	229	57%	65%	0.8
233	IPFW	Summit	-4.0	15-15	276	61%	59%	2.4
234	NC-Wilmgton	CAA	-4.0	11-19	235	67%	67%	0.1
235	U Penn	Ivy	-4.1	10-18	149	14%	40%	0.0
236	Coastal Car	Big South	-4.3	15-12	196	48%	40%	0.0
237	NC-Grnsboro	Southern	-4.3	14-15	285	74%	76%	1.5
238	E Kentucky	OVC	-4.3	15-15	265	33%	40%	3.5
239	Ball State	MAC	-4.4	13-15	188	39%	44%	0.0
240	SE Missouri	OVC	-4.4	16-14	233	81%	66%	0.0
241	Rider	MAAC	-4.4	11-19	224	52%	48%	0.0
242	Texas State	WAC	-4.5	11-17	261	54%	62%	1.6
243	Holy Cross	Patriot	-4.5	12-17	231	51%	64%	0.0
244	Portland St	Big Sky	-4.5	13-14	208	35%	33%	0.4
245	Rice	CUSA	-4.7	11-17	141	16%	19%	0.0
246	W Carolina	Southern	-4.7	12-17	234	52%	65%	0.0
247	Wofford	Southern	-4.7	13-18	203	26%	48%	0.0
248	Campbell	Big South	-4.8	16-13	226	51%	50%	0.5
249	E Washingtn	Big Sky	-4.9	14-16	195	44%	34%	0.1
250	Lipscomb	A-Sun	-4.9	11-18	212	45%	32%	0.0
251	St Peters	MAAC	-5.0	11-17	312	94%	72%	3.1
252	TX Southern	SWAC	-5.0	15-16	277	74%	68%	1.4
253	Gard-Webb	Big South	-5.0	15-14	257	55%	63%	0.9
254	McNeese St	Southland	-5.1	14-14	243	51%	56%	0.5
255	S Utah	Big Sky	-5.3	13-16	242	60%	57%	0.0
256	North Dakota	Big Sky	-5.4	13-16	273	85%	85%	0.3
257	Jacksonville	A-Sun	-5.4	12-18	244	47%	47%	0.2
258	Morgan St	MEAC	-5.5	12-15	264	56%	45%	1.1
259	Loyola-Chi	Horizon	-5.6	11-18	267	64%	59%	0.2
260	Fordham	A-10	-5.7	5-23	275	77%	64%	0.0
261	NW State	Southland	-5.7	14-14	232	56%	55%	0.0
262	E Michigan	MAC	-5.8	12-18	262	8%	59%	2.2
263	Wright State	Horizon	-5.8	11-18	214	0%	44%	0.2
264	Sac State	Big Sky	-5.8	14-14	291	97%	92%	0.0
265	Central Conn	NEC	-5.9	11-18	218	23%	50%	0.0
266	Canisius	MAAC	-5.9	10-19	322	91%	80%	3.1
267	Utah Val St	Great West	-6.0	17-13	241	40%	51%	0.5
268	Mt St Marys	NEC	-6.1	12-17	297	80%	69%	0.8
269	Chattanooga	Southern	-6.1	14-16	249	53%	49%	0.0
270	App State	Southern	-6.2	12-17	255	46%	41%	0.4
271	LA Lafayette	Sun Belt	-6.2	11-20	189	14%	27%	0.2
272	Norfolk St	MEAC	-6.3	14-16	207	28%	38%	0.1
273	NC Central	MEAC	-6.3	16-14	211	39%	52%	0.0
274	Wm & Mary	CAA	-6.5	10-19	296	56%	64%	1.1
275	Austin Peay	OVC	-6.6	11-17	215	16%	30%	0.0
276	Army	Patriot	-6.8	11-16	295	84%	85%	0.0
277	Maine	Am. East	-6.9	12-17	268	51%	64%	0.0
278	Troy	Sun Belt	-6.9	11-20	263	46%	48%	0.0
279	High Point	Big South	-6.9	14-13	237	28%	51%	0.0
280	UMKC	Summit	-6.9	11-18	281	43%	80%	0.0
281	Cal St Nrdge	Big West	-6.9	11-19	302	74%	58%	0.9
282	San Jose St	WAC	-7.0	10-19	274	40%	50%	0.3
283	Dartmouth	Ivy	-7.0	10-17	287	80%	64%	0.0
284	Pepperdine	WCC	-7.2	9-20	279	23%	38%	2.1
285	N Hampshire	Am. East	-7.3	13-15	293	50%	66%	0.8
286	Lafayette	Patriot	-7.5	11-20	245	26%	41%	0.0
287	Florida Intl	Sun Belt	-7.5	9-20	228	0%	21%	1.9
288	Liberty	Big South	-7.6	14-16	292	55%	58%	0.3
289	Beth-Cook	MEAC	-7.6	14-16	280	64%	54%	0.0
290	SE Louisiana	Southland	-7.7	11-17	305	94%	61%	0.3
291	Samford	Southern	-7.8	10-20	272	52%	42%	0.1
292	Presbyterian	Big South	-7.9	12-18	254	23%	43%	0.2
293	Central Mich	MAC	-7.9	9-19	253	7%	26%	1.1
294	Brown	Ivy	-8.0	9-19	309	63%	55%	1.7
295	Sam Hous St	Southland	-8.1	14-17	290	15%	52%	0.5
296	Monmouth	NEC	-8.3	10-21	299	63%	70%	0.3
297	Nicholls St	Southland	-8.5	10-18	339	100%	100%	1.9
298	Jackson St	SWAC	-8.6	11-16	330	100%	100%	1.2
299	VA Military	Big South	-8.6	12-15	286	39%	46%	0.2
300	Montana St	Big Sky	-8.6	10-17	288	46%	37%	0.0
301	UC Riverside	Big West	-8.6	9-19	266	7%	19%	1.6
302	Winthrop	Big South	-8.7	11-17	259	7%	36%	0.0
303	Ark Pine Bl	SWAC	-8.7	12-17	327	100%	99%	1.2
304	NC A&T	MEAC	-9.1	12-18	301	50%	76%	0.0
305	SIU Edward	OVC	-9.2	10-16	307	71%	81%	0.3
306	Colgate	Patriot	-9.3	9-21	321	55%	60%	1.8
307	Howard	MEAC	-9.6	11-17	319	85%	91%	0.0
308	South Dakota	Summit	-9.6	8-20	289	30%	31%	0.5
309	LA Monroe	Sun Belt	-9.7	7-19	308	77%	30%	1.0
310	UC Davis	Big West	-9.7	8-21	328	100%	55%	1.5
311	Hampton	MEAC	-9.7	10-19	284	24%	33%	0.0
312	TN Martin	OVC	-9.8	9-19	333	87%	67%	1.5
313	Prairie View	SWAC	-9.8	14-16	324	100%	81%	0.8
314	Citadel	Southern	-9.8	9-18	315	85%	57%	0.0
315	Hartford	Am. East	-9.9	9-20	311	57%	59%	0.2
316	Kennesaw St	A-Sun	-10.0	8-22	317	90%	50%	0.5
317	Idaho State	Big Sky	-10.2	9-20	298	28%	45%	0.0
318	Coppin State	MEAC	-10.2	9-21	269	4%	29%	0.1
319	Radford	Big South	-10.3	13-17	313	71%	56%	0.0
320	St Fran (PA)	NEC	-10.6	7-22	306	32%	61%	0.0
321	Towson	CAA	-10.7	7-24	337	50%	26%	3.4
322	TX-Pan Am	Great West	-10.9	14-17	314	70%	53%	0.0
323	TX A&M-CC	Southland	-11.1	8-20	304	9%	45%	0.2
324	E Illinois	OVC	-11.5	9-21	294	13%	20%	0.3
325	N Illinois	MAC	-11.6	6-22	331	70%	67%	0.0
326	Bryant	NEC	-11.7	7-22	336	100%	76%	0.5
327	Navy	Patriot	-11.7	9-20	316	19%	52%	0.0
328	NJIT	Great West	-11.8	12-15	300	47%	41%	0.0
329	Houston Bap	Great West	-12.0	12-17	325	80%	67%	0.0
330	Alabama St	SWAC	-12.2	11-20	320	0%	47%	0.7
331	N Arizona	Big Sky	-12.4	6-23	335	43%	62%	0.0
332	Northern Kentucky	A-Sun	-12.7	5-22	--	--	--	--
333	Central Ark	Southland	-12.7	8-20	338	81%	74%	0.0
334	New Orleans	Ind.	-13.0	8-17	310	50%	38%	0.0
335	Southern	SWAC	-13.1	12-18	326	43%	68%	0.0
336	Maryland ES	MEAC	-13.3	6-21	329	73%	43%	0.5
337	Maryland BC	Am. East	-13.4	8-21	344	55%	83%	0.1
338	Nebraska Omaha	Summit	-13.8	7-22	334	62%	50%	0.1
339	F Dickinson	NEC	-13.8	6-24	332	4%	55%	0.3
340	Alab A&M	SWAC	-13.9	10-19	340	79%	64%	0.0
341	Binghamton	Am. East	-14.2	8-21	346	100%	56%	0.3
342	Florida A&M	MEAC	-14.8	8-21	323	11%	23%	0.0
343	Alcorn State	SWAC	-15.7	8-25	341	71%	48%	0.0
344	Longwood	Big South	-15.9	7-22	343	29%	50%	0.0
345	Chicago St	Great West	-16.3	6-21	342	0%	48%	0.0
346	S Car State	MEAC	-16.7	7-22	345	34%	29%	0.0
347	Grambling St	SWAC	-18.7	4-23	347	50%	100%	0.0

OK, somehow you made it through that entire list. Give us your reaction below!

Dustin R.

So Houston, adding one of the top recruits in the country in Danuel House, gets the same rating for new players as do Jackson State and Arkansas Pine Bluff? Curious.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Hey, thanks for the heads up on that data error. … Though, it’s not the error you’re hoping for. We gave Arkansas Pine Bluff transfer credit they don’t deserve. Houston looks correct.

House is only rated #29 in the RSCI index. That’s decent, but the value of recruits drops of VERY quickly after the top few. Check out this old Luke Winn article on the topic: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/luke_winn/11/17/freshman.realism.project/index.html … The table near the bottom shows that for a recruit of House’s rank, we’d only expect a roughly average offensive performance (NCAA average offensive rating is about 100).
Dustin R.

House at #29 seems awfully low to me. Rivals and ESPN both had him top 20, despite automatically dropping him a few spots after he committed to a non-power program (Rivals had him #15 when he was uncommitted, which dropped to #20 when he became a Cougar. Hmm.) I understand the value in using an aggregate to try and improve the accuracy of recruiting rankings, but this doesn’t pass the smell test to me. (I’ll freely admit my bias, but it doesn’t necessarily mean I’m wrong.) Time will tell.

I also take issue with disregarding JuCo transfers. Given how catastrophically lousy UH’s point guard play was last year, I think the addition of two transfers at the position will have a huge impact if one of them can just be decent.

I know it’s easy to get starry-eyed in regards to your team before the season starts, but if ECU really finishes 3rd in C-USA and Houston finishes 10th, I will eat my shorts.

Thanks for putting this together, very interesting read.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Well, we didn’t ignore JuCo transfers entirely by choice. It’s partly because we didn’t find an easy way to systematically account for them. But my guess is that while there are a few cases where JuCo transfers make a big difference, the *standard* effect will be fairly small.

As for House, we don’t do any recruiting evaluation ourselves, so we just have to go with what the data says.

Anyway, the points you laid out here do make a pretty convincing argument that Houston will be better than we projected. That will definitely happen in any systematic approach — the model can’t account for everything, and there will be some misses. Of course, there’s no way a human is going to correctly account for all those details for 347 teams, either.
Ed Feng

Awesome. What’s the correlation coefficient for team rating from year to year?

Marquette has been the most underrated team in college basketball for the last 4 years.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

I’m sure it varies depending on the power rating used, but over the past 6 years, looks like about 0.84. So, really high.
http://www.teamrankings.com/ David Hess

Though keep in mind that this includes teams like Grambling State and Kentucky. So, of *course* the rating will correlate well with next year. If you limit it to teams whose year1 rating is above average, the correlation drops to 0.73.
3blind

Yesterday is another losing day vs. the spread in ncaab….down $850 if every star is worth $100.

College Basketball Preseason Ratings For All 347 Teams

2012-13 Preseason College Basketball Ratings (All Teams)

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