Bracketology Losers: 5 Teams With Plummeting 2013 NCAA Bid Odds
- 0 comments - NCAA Basketball, NCAA Tournament - posted by Jeff Haley on February 26, 2013
Every week of the season teams lose, harming their chances of making the 2013 NCAA tournament bracket. Every day, our algorithmic NCAA tournament bracketology models generate updated projections of the odds of each team making the Big Dance, enabling us to track teams as their chances rise and fall.
So which five teams most hurt their chances of making the 2013 NCAA tournament over the past seven days? Our bracketology trends pages reveal the answer:
1. Baylor (-38% NCAA Bid Odds Since Last Week)
Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: On The Bubble (58% chance)
Today: In Trouble (20% chance)
Baylor Bracketology
After getting off to a 6-1 start in Big 12 play, Baylor’s chances for a tournament bid looked promising. Three weeks ago, our bracketology models gave the Bears a 79 percent chance of earning an NCAA bid. Since that roaring start, Scott Drew’s team has lost six of their last eight games, including the last three games in a row.
Our Baylor season projections still see potential for a few more wins. Winnable games remain in two road trips to play West Virginia and Texas, and Baylor also has a decent shot of either beating Kansas or Kansas State at home. Still, even picking up a few more wins, Baylor’s most likely record is 18-13, indicating that the Bears will still have work to do in the Big 12 conference tournament bracket.
2. Cincinnati (-27% NCAA Odds)
Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: Probable (85% chance)
Today: On The Bubble (58% chance)
Cincinnati Bracketology
The Bearcats aren’t in as much trouble as Baylor just yet, but this week has not been kind to their NCAA tournament hopes for 2013. Mick Cronin and company lost road games this week against Connecticut and Notre Dame, which leaves Cincinnati few chances of picking up another impressive road win to help with their resume. The Cincinnati season projections give UC less than a 14 percent chance of winning their remaining conference road game against Louisville, while home victories against Connecticut and South Florida look likely. A 20-11 or 21-10 regular season record for the Bearcats seems most probable, followed by a chance to pick up a few more wins in the Big East tournament.
3. Mississippi (-23% NCAA Odds)
Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: Probable (70% chance)
Today: On The Bubble (47% chance)
Mississippi Bracketology
Coach Andy Kennedy has never made an NCAA bracket, but a few weeks ago that seemed likely to change. Three weeks ago, Ole Miss was riding high with a 17-4 record and an 87 percent chance of earning a bid, even if they were coming off consecutive losses against Kentucky and Florida. Since that point Mississippi has lost three more games, and with their loss last week to South Carolina their stock dropped further. Now the Marshall Henderson show looks in danger of heading straight to the NIT, having only a slim chance of an underdog win in the 2013 SEC bracket.
4. Alabama (-19% NCAA Odds)
Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: In Trouble (32% chance)
Today: Doubtful (14% chance)
Alabama Bracketology
Alabama has had a difficult road to the 2013 tournament for some time, and the Crimson Tide continues to drop games that it needs to win. This most recent plunge was due to a three point loss to LSU. If Alabama wants to keep their slim tournament hopes alive, they cannot afford to lose many more games. The problem for coach Anthony Grant and company is that two of their remaining four games are road trips to Florida and Ole Miss, both games that our Alabama season projections see as likely losses for the Tide.
5. Maryland (-11% NCAA Odds)
Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: Unlikely (19% chance)
Today: Down And Out (8% chance)
Maryland Bracketology
Maryland’s season has had a few highs, such as their home win against Duke two Saturdays ago. The problem for Maryland is that there just haven’t been enough highs. A loss to Boston College last week further hurt their NCAA bracket hopes, which were already pretty dreary. Our bracketology models indicate that the 19-8 Terrapins need to win five more games to get serious consideration for the tournament, and with only four remaining regular season games followed by a battle in the ACC conference bracket, five wins will be tough to come by.
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In closing, don’t forget to check out all of our bracketology 2013 projections, which update daily. And in case you didn’t know already, TeamRankings.com is your #1 source for coverage and analysis of the 2013 NCAA tournament bracket, including bracket predictions for all Division I teams, computer optimized 2013 NCAA bracket picks, NCAA bracket odds for surviving each tournament round, and algorithmic NCAA tournament betting picks.
