Bracket Predictions Update: Arkansas Surges, Iowa Slides, Oregon Up

February 28, 2014 - by Jordan Sperber

Here’s a look at how last night’s games impacted the 2014 bracket prediction landscape:

1. Arkansas breaks through on the road vs. Kentucky

There’s not a team in the country that doesn’t prefer playing at home, but Arkansas and Kentucky are both teams with unique home/road splits in recent years. Entering last night’s game, Kentucky was 38-2 in SEC home games under John Calipari. On the other hand, Arkansas entered just 4-20 in SEC road games under Mike Anderson.

The Razorbacks held Kentucky to just .875 points per possession, the best defensive performance for any Kentucky opponent this season. Willie Cauley-Stein and the rest of the UK frontcourt were up to their normal offensive rebounding ways, rebounding just under half of their misses, but Kentucky couldn’t get anything going from the field. Kentucky’s Harrison-Harrison-Young backcourt combined to shoot just 8-29 from two and 3-10 from three. Arkansas has now held SEC opponents under one point per possession for four games in a row.

The top-50 road win is a much needed boost to Arkansas’s NCAA tournament resume. Entering Thursday’s game, our algorithmic NCAA bracket predictions gave Arkansas just a 19% chance of receiving an NCAA tournament bid. Now with just three regular season games remaining, Arkansas’s chances to hear their name called on Selection Sunday shot up to 41% — not quite a 50/50 shot, but close.

2. Iowa continues to slide with loss at Indiana

Close road losses in the Big Ten are generally not a cause for concern, but Iowa’s recent defensive performances might be. Iowa is one of the longest teams in the country with all players receiving significant minutes, except Mike Gesell, 6’6″ and above. The staple of Fran McCaffery defenses have been the ability to contest shots without fouling. However, Iowa hasn’t been effective at contesting or not fouling recently. Indiana shot 56% from two-point range and took 38 free throws in Assembly Hall yesterday.

Three game losing streaks in the Big Ten happen, but Iowa isn’t doing their NCAA tournament seeding any favors with the recent skid. Last week, our NCAA bracket projections gave Iowa a 59% chance of receiving at least a five seed. Today, Iowa’s chances of getting a five seed or better have dropped to just 14%.

Life in the Big Ten isn’t easy, but neither is playing a two seed in the round of 32. Iowa has looked like a strong Final Four contender at times this season, but with three games left in conference play, our models are giving them less than a 1 in 5 chance of making it that far. The Hawkeyes need to start correcting their recent defensive struggles.

3. Oregon knocks off short-handed UCLA in double-OT

With Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams serving one-game suspensions, we got to see the Bryce Alford show on Thursday. The UCLA coach’s son dropped 31 points in a losing effort. Oregon did everything in its power to hand the game over to UCLA at the end of regulation, but the Ducks managed to pull out what felt like the most unimpressive top-50 road win possible.

After the win at Pauley Pavilion, our updated bracketology projections now move Oregon to a nine seed. Games like this one illustrate just how difficult the committee’s job can be. UCLA certainly loses a lot with Anderson and Adams out, but it’s tough to gauge exactly how much.

Oregon’s roller coaster season has been well-documented. The Ducks have one game left, at USC, in their (relatively) weak five game conference stretch before getting both Arizona schools at home. The Ducks on the right side of the bubble for now, but a strong finish would greatly increase their chances of avoiding a one seed in the round of 32.

S-Curve Snapshot: Friday Morning

Here’s the latest top 16 S-curve from our 2014 bracketology projections, as of Friday morning: