Big East Bracketology: How the Big East Bracket is Likely to Play Out
- 0 comments - NCAA Basketball, NCAA Tournament - posted by Jeff Haley on February 28, 2013
The Big East looks poised once again to land seven or eight teams in the NCAA tournament bracket. Our Big East bracketology breakdown predicts that six teams from the conference appear to be locks for the 2013 NCAA tournament, with Georgetown, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame playing mostly for seeding, while Villanova and Cincinnati still sit on the bubble.
This post looks at two teams with an outside shot at a one seed, and the two Big East bubble teams, using our models to forecast the remainder of the season and and the conference tournament.
Could A Big East Team Earn A One Seed?
Probably not. Our models predict that Louisville is the most likely team in the conference to earn a one seed, with the Lousiville bracketology page giving the Cardinals a 17 percent chance of taking a top seed in the NCAA tournament. Our Lousiville season projections expect a strong finish for Rick Pitino’s team, giving them a an 80 percent chance of winning three of their four of their remaining regular season games, and a 30 percent shot of running the table. The Cardinals are also the most likely team to claim the Big East conference’s automatic bid by dominating the 2013 Big East bracket in Madison Square Garden, with our models indicating that Louisville has a 36 percent chance of winning the conference tournament.
Georgetown still has a shot at taking a one seed as well, but at it is even more remote. The Georgetown bracketology page indicates only an 11 percent chance of earning a one seed for the Hoyas. It would take quite a run to do it, and the regular season Georgetown projections show that difficult road games at Connecticut and Villanova remain, along with a challenging rematch against Syracuse. John Thompson’s schedule is too tough to give Georgetown a strong chance of racking up a bunch of wins between now and selection Sunday. It still could happen, of course, but the odds are against it.
How Does The Big East Bubble Look?
Cincinnati and Villanova look like bubble teams as of today. Our Villanova Bracketology page shows that the Wildcats have a 69 percent chance of making the NCAA tournament, slightly better than a 2-in-3 chance. For Cincinnati, the chances are not as good, with the Bearcats having a 57 percent chance of making the Big Dance, according to our Cincinnati Bracketology page.
Our models feel that Villanova’s strong resume puts them in better position as of today, and with just one more win Jay Wright’s team’s NCAA odds will become very good. That win is not certain though, with our Villanova projections showing tough regular season games against Pittsburgh and Georgetown still standing in the way. That means that there is a decent chance that the Wildcats will still need to pick up a win in the conference tournament, something that that our Big East bracket predictions give them less than a 50/50 chance of accomplishing.
The Bearcats look like they still have some work to do. They haven’t picked up as many big resume building wins as ‘Nova has. Still, according to our Cincinnati season projections the Bearcats still have some winnable games ahead, and we give them a 60 percent chance of finishing the season 21-10. Then it would be on to the Big East tournament, where our models predict that Mick Cronin’s team has a 65 percent chance of winning their first game, and a 25 percent chance of picking up an additional win.
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In closing, don’t forget to check out all of our bracketology 2013 projections, which update daily. And in case you didn’t know already, TeamRankings.com is your #1 source for coverage and analysis of the 2013 NCAA tournament bracket, including bracket predictions for all Division I teams, computer optimized 2013 NCAA bracket picks, NCAA bracket odds for surviving each tournament round, and algorithmic NCAA tournament betting picks.
