Will The Big 12 Get Seven Teams In The 2014 NCAA Tournament?

March 11, 2014 - by Jordan Sperber

Last week, we looked at the Big 12’s NCAA tournament outlook. Our bracketology algorithm then was projecting 6.2 bids for the conference. At the time, the two teams on the bubble were Baylor and Oklahoma State.

Since then, the conference’s outlook has improved in terms of potential tournament bids. Our bracketology projections now have the Big 12 getting on average 6.5 tournament bids, largely due to Baylor’s recent wins over Iowa State and Kansas State. Even with the Big 12 tournament this week, we already know a lot more about the Big 12 than most conferences.

How will Big 12 tournament wins impact NCAA tournament bid odds?

The table below lists the chance that each team has to make the NCAA tournament, given how far it advances in the 2014 Big 12 tournament bracket.

NCAA Tournament Bid Odds by Big 12 Tournament Result
Seed	Team	Lose Play-In	Lose Quarters	Lose Semis	Lose Finals	Win Finals
1	Kansas	--	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Oklahoma	--	100%	100%	100%	100%
3	Texas	--	99%	100%	100%	100%
4	Iowa State	--	100%	100%	100%	100%
5	Kansas State	--	85%	97%	99%	100%
6	West Virginia	--	0%	1%	4%	100%
7	Baylor	80%	94%	96%	99%	100%
8	Oklahoma State	8%	32%	59%	80%	100%
9	Texas Tech	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
10	TCU	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%

Oklahoma State appears to be somewhat under-appreciated by our algorithm relative to the consensus. This might be due to human bracketologists compensating (or over-compensating?) for Marcus Smart’s suspension. Our algorithm thinks Oklahoma State needs to not only win the play-in game, but also knock off Kansas to have a greater than 50% chance of getting an NCAA bid. However, the Cowboys might still get in without beating Kansas.
Baylor and Kansas State would both be major Selection Sunday snubs if either wasn’t in the 2014 NCAA bracket. We have both former bubble teams mostly off the bubble now. Of course, seeding is still very much at stake for these two schools.