NCAA Tournament Bid Odds for Arkansas, A Two-Sided Team

March 8, 2014 - by Jordan Sperber

Arkansas’ current six-game winning streak has significantly helped increase their NCAA tournament hopes. Three weeks ago, our bracketology projections gave Arkansas just a 14.5% chance of making the bracket. Now we have the Razorbacks at a 41.1% chance of joining the field of 68. That 26.7% gain is the ninth highest for all teams over that time period in our 2014 bracketology trends.

Still, our bracketology projections are actually conservative for Arkansas relative to the bracketology consensus. Most everyone else has the Razorbacks currently in the field. However, what makes this story quite interesting is the large disparity in the Razorbacks’ home vs. away play.

Arkansas’ NCAA Tournament Resume

As previously mentioned, Arkansas has one of the best home-court advantages in the country. This season, our New Rankings have Arkansas ranked 12th in the country when playing at home. Even with the road win at Rupp Arena, our New Rankings have Arkansas just 80th in the country when playing on the road. This is the norm for Arkansas in Mike Anderson’s three years with the team. It seems like Anderson’s aware of the trend too. Arkansas didn’t play a single true road game in non-conference play this year.

A record of 21-9 going into the final game of the regular season in a major conference certainly looks like an NCAA tournament team. However, the 21 wins are a bit misleading given a down SEC this year and Arkansas’ non-conference scheduling. The Razorbacks went 1-2 in Maui, but otherwise went undefeated at home during non-conference play.

Today Arkansas travels to Alabama to close out SEC play. That’s a road game that can really only hurt the Razorbacks. Alabama is just 6-11 in SEC play, but it won’t be an easy win given Mike Anderson’s road struggles. Our algorithm sees it as a nearly must-win game for Arkansas, although most of the human bracketologists seem to disagree.

How Unique are the Home/Road Splits of Arkansas?

This season, Arkansas is number one in our Home Advantage Rankings. In fact, in Mike Anderson’s three years Arkansas has been in the top 10 every year. Not only are they the one team in the country in the top 10 all three years, but only one other team (Houston) has even been in the top 50 throughout that time.

Consequently, it’s not entirely clear how we should expect Arkansas to perform in the NCAA tournament, on a neutral court. The Hogs’ home/road splits are unprecedented so we can’t look at other schools with very similar context, and the sample size of neutral court games under Mike Anderson is simply too small for meaningful results. Arkansas has been bounced out of the SEC tournament in their first game in both of Anderson’s seasons, but this year the Razorbacks will at least be expected to break that trend.

Take a look at Arkansas’ home and road splits in Mike Anderson’s three seasons:

Arkansas Home/Road Splits Under Mike Anderson
Year	Home Rtng	NCAA Rank	Away Rtng	NCAA Rank
2012	10.2	77	3.2	176
2013	14.2	25	-0.2	181
2014	17.3	12	7.3	80