ACC Bracket Predictions 2013: Tournament Critical For Virginia

• 7 comments - NCAA Basketball - posted by David Hess on March 13, 2013

With the 2013 ACC tournament bracket set play beginning tomorrow, here’s our conference tourney preview and ACC bracket predictions.

ACC Bracket Predictions & Tournament Preview

2013 ACC tournament site & location: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC
2013 ACC tournament dates: March 14th-17th, 2013

The Miami Hurricanes beat out Duke for the ACC regular season title, but our models give the edge to the Blue Devils in the conference tournament. Over the course of the season and factoring in non-conference performance, Duke has been the best team in the ACC. Led by Mason Plumlee, Seth Curry, and a now healthy Ryan Kelly, the Blue Devils have the ACC’s best offense, scoring 1.14 points per possession, and their defense is pretty good, too.

If there is a weakness in the Duke D, it is that they have not guarded two point attempts particularly well during conference play, allowing opponents to hit 50 percent of their shots inside the arc. Miami is the strongest challenger to Duke, followed by North Carolina, Virginia, and NC State.

Bracketology Impact Of The ACC Tournament

Among the better teams in the ACC, Virginia is the only one on the bubble. As of today, our models give the Cavaliers a 52 percent chance of making the NCAA tournament. The Virginia bracketology predictions suggest that Virginia needs a couple of wins in the ACC tournament to boost their at large chances, and if they manage to win the ACC tournament it would erase the NCAA hopes of another bubble team elsewhere in the country.

2013 ACC Bracket Predictions

Using our algorithmic power ratings, here are the results of our computer simulations of the ACC tournament bracket, in terms of round by round advancement odds:

ACC Tournament Futures Odds & Value Analysis

As a comparison to our round by round ACC bracket odds, here are recent futures betting odds that offshore casino Sportsbook.com is offering on the ACC tournament bracket. The number in parentheses represents the implied ACC tournament champion odds that would make each bet a break-even proposition in the long run.

• #2 Duke: even (50.0% implied ACC champion odds)
• #1 Miami (FL): +300 (25.0%)
• #3 N Carolina: +500 (16.7%)
• #5 NC State: +650 (13.3%)
• #4 Virginia: +1000 (9.1%)
• The Field / Any Other Team: +1000 (9.1%) 

Notice how the sum of the implied ACC champion odds totals more than 120%. That’s just another example of how the deck is stacked against sports bettors; most futures bets are sucker’s bets with negative expected value. While none of these ACC futures bets offer a positive ROI based on our power ratings, Duke at even money looks like the “least bad” bet of the bunch, with UNC and Virginia not too much worse. NC State looks highly overvalued.

Best ACC Teams Against The Point Spread In 2013

With relatively small sample sizes, it’s typically best not to read too much into ATS records if you’re considering a wager on the ACC tourney; a few close calls that go a team’s way over the course of a season can mean the difference between a good and a not-so-good record against the spread. However, it’s always interesting to look at teams’ relative ATS cover margins.

• #3 N Carolina: 19-10-1 (65.5%) ATS, average ATS margin +1.1 points
• #1 Miami (FL): 17-9-0 (65.4%), +3.4
• #4 Virginia: 17-11-1 (60.7%), +4.7

Worst ACC Teams Against The Point Spread In 2013

• #6 Florida St: 12-16-1 (47.8%) ATS, average ATS margin -2.4 points
• #12 Virginia Tech: 12-14-2 (46,2%), -2.2
• #7 Maryland: 11-12-1 (42.9%), +0.7

Best Current ACC Winning Streaks

If you think momentum coming into a tournament actually means something, point us to some solid evidence, because it’s a myth. However, a team on a hot streak may attract a lot of public money in the betting markets, potentially providing value in betting against them, and vice versa. For those that care, here are the top ACC winning and losing streaks.

• #8 Boston Col (W3)
• #2 Duke (W3)
• #6 Florida St (W2)

Worst Current ACC Losing Streaks

• #11 Clemson (L6)
• #12 VA Tech (L2)
• #7 Maryland (L2)

Top ACC Scorers vs. Division 1 Opponents

• Erick Green, VA Tech (25.4 points/game)
• Mason Plumlee, Duke (17.2 points/game)
• Seth Curry, Duke (17.1 points/game)

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Computer Optimized 2013 NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks