ACC Tournament Bracketology: Any Hope For Teams Seeded 5 Or Worse?

March 12, 2014 - by Jordan Sperber

The first year of the new and improved ACC hasn’t gone exactly as hoped by the conference brass. The 15-team conference currently has just six teams with NCAA tournament hopes heading into the ACC tournament. Unsurprisingly, the top four seeds (Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, and UNC) are all virtual locks to make the field.

Our 2014 ACC bracket and predictions have the probability of one of the top four seeds winning the tournament at 85%. Bubble teams Pittsburgh and Florida State don’t have to win the entire tournament to get into the 2014 NCAA bracket, but a strong performance would really help their odds.

How will ACC tournament wins impact NCAA tournament bid odds?

NCAA Tournament Bid Odds by ACC Tournament Result
Seed	Team	Lose 1st Round	Lose 2nd Round	Lose Quarters	Lose Semis	Lose Finals	Win Finals
1	Virginia	--	--	100%	100%	100%	100%
2	Syracuse	--	--	100%	100%	100%	100%
3	Duke	--	--	100%	100%	100%	100%
4	UNC	--	--	100%	100%	100%	100%
5	Pittsburgh	--	39%	70%	86%	94%	100%
6	Clemson	--	0%	1%	6%	26%	100%
7	North Carolina State	--	0%	1%	8%	24%	100%
8	Maryland	--	0%	1%	4%	19%	100%
9	Florida State	--	3%	20%	51%	80%	100%
10	Miami	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
11	Georgia Tech	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
12	Wake Forest	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
13	Notre Dame	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
14	Boston College	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
15	Virginia Tech	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%

It’s hard to believe that Pittsburgh still has work to do in mid-March considering their 16-1 start. A loss to the winner of Wake Forest and Notre Dame would certainly make things interesting, and not in a good way for Pitt fans. The Pittsburgh team we have seen recently is certainly capable of an early round exit, but overall Jamie Dixon’s team looks to be in decent shape for an NCAA bid.
Florida State is currently on the wrong side of the bubble, but don’t count them out yet. Our bracketology projections currently give the Seminoles a 22% chance of making the tournament, but as you can see in the table above, Florida State can fight its way to at least becoming a coin flip to make the NCAA tourney with two consecutive wins over Maryland and Virginia.
Clemson, NC State, and Maryland would all make the selection committee at least look twice with a run to the ACC tournament championship game. It’s still would probably be too little, too late for all three teams though, not to mention that a deep ACC tourney run is highly unlikely.