Tournament Predictions: ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC…

March 10, 2015 - by Aaron Barzilai

March Madness really gets rolling today with the first tournament games from a Power Conference: the ACC opening round.

While not exactly marquee matchups (#12 seed Boston College faces #13 Georgia Tech at 1 PM Eastern, followed #11 Wake Forest against #14 Virginia Tech), any time we have major college basketball during the day it’s a good thing. Tomorrow, the Big 12, Pac-12, Big Ten, SEC, and Big East tournaments will also join the fun.

Below you will find our 2015 conference tournament predictions for all of these tournaments. All projections were generated before the first games tipped.

ACC Conference Tournament Predictions 2015

Our 2015 ACC conference tournament bracket prediction favors 2 seed Duke. They are projected to win the tournament 40% of the time, while Virginia has 28% odds to win the ACC regular season and conference tournament for the second season in a row.

#5 North Carolina actually has the third best chance to win at 12%, followed by #4 Louisville and #3 Notre Dame at 9% and 8% respectively.

Both our Duke bracketology projection and our Virginia projection see a roughly 50/50 chance that each team will be end up as a 1 seed in the 2015 NCAA tournament. If they face each other in the conference final Saturday, they’re probably playing for a 1 seed in the Big Dance.

Big 12 Conference Tournament Predictions 2015

Our 2015 Big 12 conference tournament bracket prediction sees a very evenly matched tournament, as you’d expect given the depth of the conference. 1 seed Kansas is favored, but has only a 26% chance to win. Close on their heels are #3 Oklahoma at 20%, #2 Iowa State at 17%, and #4 Baylor at 13%.

However, Kansas’ chances will certainly depend on whether Perry Ellis, Brannen Greene, and Cliff Alexander end up taking the floor for them. (Our projections assume past Kansas games are representative samples of the team going forward.)

Our Kansas bracketology projection indicates that even if they were to win their conference tournament, a 1 seed in the NCAA is pretty unlikely. They have a 77% chance to receive a #2 seed at the time of writing.

Pac-12 Conference Tournament Predictions 2015

Our 2015 Pac-12 conference tournament bracket prediction strongly favors 1 seed Arizona. They are forecast to win their conference tournament 63% of the time.

3 seed Utah is the only team with a non-trivial chance (27%) to pull off the upset. Despite Oregon’s recent surge to earn the conference’s 2 seed, we see them as having only a 2-3% chance to take home the Pac-12 tournament title, so this conference tournament looks like a two-horse race.

Especially given the likelihood they win their conference tournament, our Arizona bracketology projection currently gives the Wildcats slightly better than a coin flip chance (57%) to land a 1 seed in the Big Dance.

Big Ten Conference Tournament Predictions 2015

Our 2015 Big Ten conference tournament bracket prediction sees Wisconsin as a significant favorite, despite the fact we project the conference will receive six bids from the selection committee. The Badgers are projected to win over 50% of the time.

Despite being the conference tournament’s 6 seed, Ohio State has played strongly this year and ranks second in our forecast with a 17% chance to win. Our expectations for Ohio State are primarily based on the Buckeyes currently ranking 9th in the nation in our predictive rankings.

The Wisconsin bracketology projection from our model currently sees them as a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but by the slimmest of margins. Right now we give them a 56% chance to hear their name called as a top seed on Selection Sunday, but an early loss in the tournament would almost certainly dash that hope.

SEC Conference Tournament Predictions 2015

All season, the SEC has been maligned as being “Kentucky, and everyone else.” Not surprisingly, Kentucky is the overwhelming favorite in our 2015 SEC conference tournament bracket prediction, with a 78% chance to win the tournament and enter Selection Sunday undefeated on the year.

However, our NCAA bracketology by conference predictions do still project the SEC with five teams making the NCAA tournament. We currently see Arkansas looking the best to the NCAA Selection Committee out of the remaining SEC teams, most likely landing a 5 seed in the Big Dance.

Big East Conference Tournament Predictions 2015

Our 2015 Big East conference tournament bracket prediction gives 1 seed Villanova a 55% chance to cut down the nets in Madison Square Garden on Saturday. That’s about four times the tournament champion odds of 2 seed Georgetown, with a 14% chance to win it all.

While the Big East has been perceived to be weaker with realignment, we current project the conference to score two 5 seeds (Butler and Providence), a 7 seed (Georgetown) and two 8 seeds (St. John’s and Xavier) in the 2015 NCAA tournament. That makes Villanova’s achievements during the regular season even more impressive.

As a result, our Villanova bracketology projection currently sees them as a pretty strong favorite for a 1 seed in the NCAA tourney. Right now we give them a 76% chance to score a top seed, second only to Kentucky.