The 5 Boldest Upset Picks Of The 2013 NCAA Tournament Bracket

March 21, 2013 - by Mike Greenfield

So, which teams should you pick for an early round upsets this year in your 2013 NCAA bracket?

If you’re in a traditional bracket pool with no upset bonus in the scoring system, the first answer is probably “not many.” People tend to agonize over the Round of 64 games because there are so many of them, but for the majority of bracket pickers, those games are worth next to nothing in terms of points.

Especially if you’re in a smaller bracket pool, the risk of picking lots of upsets simply doesn’t justify the reward. In most cases, you’re better off taking measured risks on later round games, where a game that swings your way can really differentiate your bracket from the pack.

However, if you’re in a pool with upset bonuses, or you want to throw caution to the wind for the chance to be immortalized as the clairvoyant that called a bunch of bold upsets in 2013, then picking some underdogs to win is a more sensible idea.

Another Banner Year For The 12 Seeds?

Everybody loves the 12 over 5 upset, and lo and behold, all of the 12 seeds have a strong chance against their 5-seed opponents this year. Oregon projects the best pick, and has essentially a 50-50 shot against Oklahoma State. Although the other 5 seeds are bigger favorites, we’d hardly be shocked if UNLV, VCU, or Wisconsin went down in their first game of the 2013 tournament.

But 12-5 upsets are kind of boring. Let’s get bolder.

Our Five Boldest NCAA Upset Picks Of 2013

#13 La Salle over #4 Kansas State.
The most likely big first round upset is La Salle over Kansas State. Kansas State is one of the weakest top four seeds — only Marquette ranks lower in our system — and La Salle acquitted themselves well in their play-in game. If La Salle can neutralize Kansas State’s biggest advantage, rebounding, they could very well win. We give them a one in three shot.

#14 Davidson over #3 Marquette.
#3 seed Marquette is the weakest of the top-four seeds, and they have a tough opponent in Davidson. They’re playing the game in Kentucky, much closer to Davidson, and Marquette doesn’t have any major statistical advantages. Marquette’s the favorite here, but we also give Davidson around a one in three shot to win.

#14 Valparaiso over #3 Michigan State.
The third most likely upset is #14 Valparaiso over #3 Michigan State. This promises to be an interesting matchup. Valpo is one of the best shooting teams in the country, from both 2- and 3-point range, but turns the ball over a lot. Michigan State doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, but their field goal defense is fairly strong. If Valpo can shoot as well as they usually do, they’ll give the Spartans a game. If not, Michigan State likely wins by double digits. We give Valparaiso about a 20% shot to pull it off.

#13 New Mexico State over #4 Saint Louis.
Saint Louis, the Midwest’s #4 seed, could find themselves in trouble in the first round. The #4 seed plays a New Mexico State team that is 17-2 in 2013 after a 7-8 start. The Aggies are a good offensive rebounding team, and have the advantage of playing in the West against a Midwestern foe. The odds of an upset here are just shy of one in five.

#15 Pacific over #2 Miami
Our final upset possibility is #15 Pacific over #2 Miami. Miami is a strong team, but they’ve been inconsistent and are playing a strong #15 seed. Pacific is largely a 3-point shooting team, and statistically, Miami doesn’t defend the three as well as they do other things. As a result, Pacific is both a high variance team (they could get lucky and hit a bunch of threes) and has a playing style well-built to defeat the Canes. They  have between a 10% and 15% chance to win.

The Reality Behind Expecting The Unexpected

Add up the probabilities, and we expect 1.2 upsets to happen out of the list of 5 above. Going 1-for-5 may not seem impressive at all, but if you’re in a pool with “difference in seed” upset points bonus, the bonus points you get from just one of these David-beats-Goliath picks happening would give you twice as many total points as picking all the favorites to win and getting all five right.

You absolutely need to think twice about picking some of these teams to lose in the first round, especially Miami, because you’re giving up a lot of potential future points if Miami wins and keeps winning. But if you don’t have any of the favorites above going beyond the Sweet 16, then in a difference-in-seed upset bonus pool, you should definitely have them lose in the first round rather than making the Sweet 16 and losing.

Other Round of 64 Games On Spicy Bold Upset Watch

There are two other games to keep an eye on:

• One other 2-15 game that could be an upset is #15 Iona over #2 Ohio State. Iona stands out as by far the best 15-seed. If there’s going to be another Lehigh-over-Duke outcome in this year’s tourney, Iona would be our pick.
• Just to put it out there, Indiana is deservedly a huge favorite over James Madison, but the Hoosiers are still the most likely 1-seed to lose this year. We doubt that this will be the year that a 1-seed loses to a 16-seed, though.

Sweet 16 Spicy Bold Upset Watch

In terms of 6-seeds or worse who have a shot to be Sweet 16 sleeper teams, our top three picks would be:

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