2012 Will Be A Year Of Chalk | Stat Geek Idol

March 14, 2012 - by The Commish

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This is an entry in our inaugural Stat Geek Idol contest. The opinions and predictions expressed below do not represent the views of TeamRankings.com, and are solely those of the author. At this time, the author wishes to be known only as The Commish.

It’s that time of the year again where aspiring “bracketologists” emerge from the darkness of winter and the post Super-Bowl void in the sports world that is known as February.

It’s the annual rite of spring known to all of us as “March Madness”. The Madness is defined by the hordes of people who have never even watched a college basketball game in the past 2-3 months who suddenly find themselves parading around the office waving their completed brackets and bragging about how they have identified the “sleepers of all sleepers.”

This army of misfits typically displays 3 characteristics: (1) they went to a college with a strong basketball tradition; (2) they try to convince anyone whose ear they can chew on that their alma mater is going all the way (“This is finally our year baby!”); and (3) their bracket sheet will soon have more value as toilet paper than as an office pool entry.

Now let’s get right to the strategy that will help you take these suckers down as well as their money.

To Chalk Or Not To Chalk? That Is The Question

Do you ride the top-ranked seeds all the way through or go against the grain and take some sleepers to go all the way?

Well, the Commish is here to talk you off the ledge with the latter strategy this year. I know it appears “unsexy” to have too many #1 and #2 seeds in the Final 4, but sticking with the chalk clearly gives you the best chance of winning in any given year so play it safe.

If you can stay in the running until the later rounds, then you have put the odds in your favor and can then bank on some luck and your ability to pick some mid-range Sweet 16 sleepers and the ultimate champion/runner-up as the deciding factors in whether you win, place or show in the prize money.

From the table below, you can see that Chalk hits paydirt approximately 45% of the time, with chalk-like seeds at 42% and Aberrations at slightly above 10%.

Note- In looking at the chart above, I tried to fit the quality of the Final 4 teams based into one of three buckets (1) chalk; (2) chalkish; or (3) an Aberration. Chalk is where (i) a #1 or #2 seed won it all; (ii) at least 2 #1 seeds made the Final 4 or the total sum of the seeds did not exceed 10; and (iii) there were no teams seeded at 5 or above. An aberration was defined as the sum of the seeds being 20 or more. Chalkish was anything did not fit neatly within the Chalk or Aberration bucket, but was closer to chalk.

The final results: 15 Chalk, 14 Chalkish and 4 Aberrations.

Don’t Be Fooled By Focusing On 2011

It seems that for this year in particular that many have become emboldened by thinking back to last year’s Final 4 and have convinced themselves that a sleeper strategy is the way to go. Don’t be the one to make the same mistake. Not this year at least. Here’s why.

First, let’s revisit last year’s Final 4 which as per the table above did not include one #1 or #2 seed in any region. There was #3 UConn which won it all, #4 Kentucky, #8 Butler (for second year in a row) and #11 VCU. This was the only time in the past 30 years that there were absolutely zero #1 or #2 seeds in the Final 4. In fact, it was only the second time in that same time frame that there was no #1 seed in the Final 4 (2006 being the other).

So what does this mean for the 2012 tourney? Revenge. Chalk will rule the day in this tourney. For starters, the #1 seeds are far more talented and dominant than the rest of the field. There is no way that there will be a repeat of last year’s maddening array of tourney upsets.

The Commish has analyzed 33 years of data for the Final 4 seeds (see below) and has concluded the following to be gospel: upset-minded tourneys are an Aberration, an once in every 5-10 year thing. And it never happens in consecutive years. Never. The last time it happened was in 2006, and the following 3 seasons were all-chalk, all the time (with 12 spots being filled by 8 #1 seeds, 3 #2 seeds and 1 #3 seed.)

After the 2000 tourney aberration, where 2 #8 seeds made the Final 4, the following 5 years saw nothing but chalk.

How Can I Use This Info?

Now, I am not recommending acting like a complete drone (leave that to Louie from Accounting) and taking all higher seeds in every game. You should also have fun with this thing so go ahead and take a few late tourney upsets or try to find the 1 or 2 #1 seeds that will get knocked out in the Elite 8.

But don’t go crazy and select Temple, Wichita St, Alabama and Xavier to make the Final 4 either. Not going to happen this year. Balance and common sense are your best friends in filling out your brackets this year. And let the Chalk be your friend and not your enemy.

Good luck!

The Commish