2012 West Coast Conference Tournament Projection: St. Mary’s, Gonzaga Favored

February 28, 2012 - by Beyond The Bets and TR Staff

Throughout the 2012 college basketball conference tournament season, we’ll be using the same projection engine that drives our college basketball season projections to predict the outcome of every conference tournament.

This post covers expected round-by-round advancement odds for the West Coast Conference Tournament Bracket 2012.

For similar breakdowns of other conference tournaments, please see our 2012 college basketball conference tournament projections overview blog post.

2012 WCC Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

Seed	Team	R2	Quarter	Semi	Champ	Win
1	St Marys	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	81.5%	40.3%
2	Gonzaga	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	62.2%	37.3%
3	BYU	100.0%	100.0%	94.4%	37.6%	18.9%
4	Loyola Mymt	100.0%	100.0%	60.6%	12.3%	2.5%
5	San Fransco	100.0%	81.1%	36.5%	6.2%	1.0%
6	San Diego	100.0%	57.9%	3.9%	0.1%	0.0%
7	Pepperdine	100.0%	42.1%	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Portland	54.0%	10.9%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Santa Clara	46.0%	8.0%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%

St. Mary’s and Gonzaga are not only the two best teams in the West Coast Conference, but they also have a distinct advantage with the way the league chooses to set up the tournament. As the top two seeds, both schools are automatically in the semifinals and only need to win two games to be crowned the tournament champions.

The Gaels and Bulldogs should both be safe to make the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in this tournament, but a team like third-seeded BYU likely needs to make a run and win it to earn a berth in the Big Dance.

The Favorite: #1 St. Mary’s (+155), 40.3% chance to win

The Gaels clinched their first outright WCC regular-season title in 23 years with their 67-60 victory over San Francisco on Saturday. Now, they’ll try to win their second conference tournament in the last three years, a tournament that’s been owned by Gonzaga, which has won 10 of the last 13.

St. Mary’s has a slightly better chance than Gonzaga, in large part because its road to the championship game figures to be a bit easier. The Gaels will likely play fourth-seeded Loyola Marymount (2.5% chance) in the semifinal round, while the Bulldogs are projected to take on No. 3 BYU (18.9%).

It’s worth noting, however, that the Gaels split the season series with Loyola Marymount and lost the most recent meeting, a 75-60 home defeat on Feb. 15. Also, St. Mary’s has lost three of its last six games after a 22-2 start.

The Challenger: #2 Gonzaga (+175), 37.2% chance to win

For the second straight year, Gonzaga finds itself as the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament. Last year, the Bulldogs seemed comfortable in the role, upsetting top-seeded St. Mary’s 75-63 in the championship game.

Our projections suggest the Zags have a strong chance at duplicating the feat in this year’s tournament — provided they can advance past the semifinals. Their most likely opponent is BYU, which probably won’t make the Big Dance unless it wins the WCC.

Gonzaga split the season series with both BYU and St. Mary’s.

Value Pick: NONE

Using odds from The Greek, there are no great bargains to be found in the WCC tournament. However, there might be a morsel of value on any of the top three seeds: St. Mary’s at +155, Gonzaga at +175, and BYU at +450.

We project the Cougars to have an 18.9 percent chance of winning the tournament crown. At the 4.5-to-1 odds, you’d need to win 18.2 percent of your bets to break even. While the Cougars can’t be considered a strong play, it might be worth a crack if you’ve got a hunch and are willing to go out on a limb.

The math for St. Mary’s and Gonzaga works out similarly. The lines offered for both seem fair, which is better than you’ll normally find. The other six teams in the WCC have less than a 3 percent chance, according to our projections.

Odds from The Greek:
St. Mary’s +155
Gonzaga +175
Loyola Marymount +385
BYU +450
San Francisco +1000
Field +1200