2012 Conference Tournament Predictions: Sun Belt, Summit & Big Sky

March 2, 2012 - by David Hess

Throughout the 2012 college basketball conference tournament season, we’ll be using the same projection engine that drives our college basketball season projections to predict the outcome of every conference tournament.

This post covers expected round-by-round advancement odds for the 2012 Sun Belt Bracket, the 2012 Summit Bracket, and the 2012 Big Sky Bracket. For similar breakdowns of other conference tournaments, please see our 2012 college basketball conference tournament projections overview blog post.

2012 Sun Belt Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

Seed	Team	Quarter	Semi	Champ	Win
1	Middle Tenn	100.0%	89.9%	75.1%	50.5%
3	Denver	100.0%	84.6%	69.6%	35.3%
5	North Texas	100.0%	58.5%	13.7%	4.9%
2	AR Lit Rock	100.0%	59.5%	15.2%	3.5%
4	LA Lafayette	100.0%	41.5%	7.1%	2.0%
6	S Alabama	66.4%	12.8%	6.7%	1.4%
7	W Kentucky	56.5%	24.5%	5.1%	0.9%
8	Fla Atlantic	52.0%	5.6%	2.4%	0.6%
9	Arkansas St	48.0%	4.5%	1.8%	0.4%
10	Florida Intl	43.6%	16.1%	2.5%	0.4%
11	Troy	33.6%	2.6%	0.9%	0.1%

Favorite Middle Tennessee is a few spots below the current at large cut line in the latest Bracket Project update, which means they have no room for error, and had better take care of business. Will they? It’s a coin flip.

One bid conferences generally want their best team representing them in the NCAA tournament, as there is a monetary bonus for any wins. Middle Tennessee is the best team in the Sun Belt, but if they fail to win, chances are good that a solid Denver team will be the one to take their place.

2012 Summit Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

Seed	Team	Semi	Champ	Win
1	Oral Roberts	93.2%	72.9%	44.2%
2	S Dakota St	80.6%	61.1%	35.0%
3	Oakland	70.9%	24.9%	9.1%
5	N Dakota St	54.4%	14.5%	4.9%
4	W Illinois	45.7%	10.7%	3.2%
7	IUPUI	19.4%	8.6%	2.3%
6	S Utah	29.1%	5.4%	1.1%
8	IPFW	6.8%	1.9%	0.3%

Out of all the conference tournament bracket odds we’ve posted so far, the Summit is the first time our favorite has disagreed with Vegas.

The futures lines for the top two teams are South Dakota State -145, and Oral Roberts +125. That translates to break-even win odds of 59% for South Dakota State and 44% for Oral Roberts — but remember, there is a lot of juice (casino profits) built into those lines, so the true implied win odds for the teams are lower.

Our projections, on the other hand, have Oral Roberts as the favorite, winning 44% of the time, and South Dakota State as the next most likely champion, with 35% odds.

Why the difference? A lot of it comes down to location. The game is being played in Sioux Falls, South Dakota — that’s a home state game for SDSU, but not a true home game. While our individual game predictions take into account semi-home games like this by using distance traveled, these projections are simpler, and use only our power ratings. The projections are classifying these games as neutral site games, when in reality South Dakota State may have a slight advantage.

Based on some rough calculations, my best guess is that this could raise SDSU’s odds by roughly 5%, with most of that gain coming from Oral Roberts’ odds. That would leave the tournament as essentially a toss up, with Oral Roberts favored only 41% to 40%. In that case, both teams would still be bad bets, given the current lines.

2012 Big Sky Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

Seed	Team	Semi	Champ	Win
1	Montana	100.00%	89.69%	61.72%
2	Weber State	100.00%	79.47%	32.13%
3	Portland St	79.25%	18.52%	3.24%
4	E Washingtn	82.41%	9.87%	2.72%
6	Montana St	20.75%	2.01%	0.14%
5	Idaho State	17.59%	0.43%	0.05%

Top seed Montana is one of the biggest favorites we’ve covered so far this conference tournament season, with a 61.7% chance to win the Big Sky’s automatic bid. Either Montana or Weber State would likely be a #15 seed in the Big Dance, while any other Big Sky team would be in danger of dropping down to #16.

Strangely, that could actually be good for the conference, as they’d have a chance to get a monetary bonus for winning a play-in game.