2012 MAC Tournament Predictions: Top Four All Decent Shots To Win

March 5, 2012 - by David Hess

Throughout the 2012 college basketball conference tournament season, we’ll be using the same projection engine that drives our college basketball season projections to predict the outcome of every conference tournament.

This post covers expected round-by-round advancement odds for the 2012 MAC Bracket. For similar breakdowns of other conference tournaments, please see our 2012 college basketball conference tournament projections overview blog post.

2012 MAC Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

Seed	Team	R2	Quarter	Semi	Champ	Win
1	Akron	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	68.57%	38.60%
3	Ohio	100.00%	100.00%	73.72%	42.95%	23.42%
2	Buffalo	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	47.26%	21.91%
4	Kent State	100.00%	100.00%	73.25%	26.73%	11.45%
6	Bowling Grn	80.40%	56.84%	19.44%	8.26%	3.21%
8	W Michigan	57.04%	38.43%	12.46%	2.65%	0.70%
9	Ball State	42.96%	26.09%	6.86%	1.12%	0.23%
5	E Michigan	80.91%	33.06%	7.34%	0.93%	0.16%
10	Miami (OH)	50.45%	18.17%	3.18%	0.75%	0.16%
7	Toledo	49.55%	17.66%	3.03%	0.70%	0.15%
11	Central Mich	19.60%	7.34%	0.63%	0.09%	0.01%
12	N Illinois	19.09%	2.42%	0.09%	0.00%	0.00%

The MAC is one of the more wide open conference tournaments of the year, as only the Colonial and the Horizon so far have had a predicted champion with under a 40% chance to win. Akron is that team here, at 38.6%, but it would come as no shock at all to see any of the top four seeds win.

This tournament is one of the most heavily tilted towards the top seeds out of all the conference tournaments, as the top four teams get double byes, and the top two get triple byes into the semifinals. So Akron (13-3) and Buffalo (12-4) only need to win two games to take home the title, while a team like Eastern Michigan (9-7) has to win five.

None of these teams are anywhere close to an at-large bid, so bubble teams across the country don’t need to pay close attention.