2012 Conference Tournament Predictions: ACC Bracket, Big Ten Bracket, SEC Bracket, Mountain West, Big West & Great West

Throughout the 2012 college basketball conference tournament season, we’ll be using the same projection engine that drives our college basketball season projections to predict the outcome of every conference tournament.

This post covers expected round-by-round advancement odds for the 2012 ACC Bracket,  the 2012 Big Ten Bracket, the 2012 SEC Bracket, the 2012 Mountain West Bracket, the 2012 Big West Bracketand the 2012 Great West Bracket.

For similar breakdowns of other conference tournaments, please see our 2012 college basketball conference tournament projections overview blog post.

2012 ACC Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

SeedTeamQuarterSemiChampWin
1N Carolina100.00%97.66%83.21%63.21%
2Duke100.00%84.09%58.04%21.50%
3Florida St100.00%62.29%24.91%6.01%
4Virginia100.00%65.60%12.65%5.35%
6Miami (FL)81.10%35.03%11.83%2.25%
5NC State90.69%34.00%3.57%1.10%
7Clemson51.91%8.59%2.75%0.27%
10VA Tech48.09%7.32%2.22%0.20%
8Maryland66.41%2.04%0.53%0.09%
11GA Tech18.90%2.67%0.26%0.01%
9Wake Forest33.59%0.29%0.04%0.00%
12Boston Col9.31%0.40%0.00%0.00%

North Carolina’s dominant win at Duke proved they are the class of the ACC. They’ve climbed all the way to #2 in our predictive power ratings, nearly four points better than Duke. That might not seem like much, but a four point difference is actually quite large. It’s larger than the difference between Duke and Virginia, for example.

In fact, our projection for UNC is so optimistic that it actually implies there is some positive expected value (EV) in backing the Tar Heels to win the ACC tournament. Their line is -145, which means they’d need to have a true win probability higher than 59.2% in order for the bet to be profitable over the long run. Our projections peg them with a 63.2% chance to win the ACC title, which works out to an expected return on investment (ROI) of +7%.

If forced to pick a dark horse here, it would me #6 Miami FL. Though they have only a 2.3% chance to capture the automatic bid, that’s higher than #5 NC State. The Hurricanes are the only real bubble team in the ACC, though NC State could insert themselves into the picture with a run to the finals.

2012 Big Ten Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

SeedTeamQuarterSemiChampWin
1Michigan St100.00%89.67%57.14%34.56%
3Ohio State100.00%80.39%57.92%31.78%
5Indiana91.45%50.03%21.68%10.80%
2Michigan100.00%69.61%26.74%10.07%
4Wisconsin100.00%48.95%18.97%8.57%
6Purdue79.65%18.72%8.46%2.37%
7Northwestrn56.69%18.69%4.50%1.04%
10Minnesota43.31%11.70%2.23%0.40%
9Illinois55.61%6.71%1.48%0.30%
8Iowa44.39%3.62%0.65%0.11%
11Nebraska20.36%0.89%0.15%0.01%
12Penn State8.55%1.01%0.08%0.01%

Our projection for the top seeds in the Big Ten is at distinct odds with the betting markets and some other rating systems. While we give Michigan State the best chance to win, the offshore sportsbooks have installed Ohio State as the favorite. With +250 odds on Tom Izzo’s club, our tournament advancement odds would imply a +21% ROI if they are correct.

While our ratings view the two teams as essentially equal, the Spartans’ path to the championship appears slightly easier. The main difference is in their initial opponents — Michigan State’s toughest path would go through #66 Illinois and #8 Indiana, while Ohio State might have to face #33 Purdue and #14 Michigan.

Outside of the top two seeds, the most dangerous team might be 5-seed Indiana, both because of their quality, and because the event is being played in Indianapolis, Indiana.

2012 SEC Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

SeedTeamQuarterSemiChampWin
1Kentucky100.00%98.24%87.14%80.31%
3Vanderbilt100.00%72.10%49.16%8.30%
4Florida100.00%62.39%9.10%5.58%
2Tennessee100.00%62.95%26.36%2.38%
5Alabama87.22%36.64%3.32%1.78%
6Miss State61.39%19.36%9.73%0.73%
7Mississippi62.64%26.12%8.86%0.54%
11Georgia38.61%8.54%3.32%0.14%
8LSU53.42%1.02%0.27%0.09%
10Auburn37.36%10.93%2.57%0.09%
9Arkansas46.58%0.73%0.17%0.05%
12S Carolina12.78%0.97%0.01%0.00%

Kentucky is obviously the huge favorite here. The -250 line implies only a 71.4% break-even tournament win rate, compared to our projection of 80.3%. In theory, that means the Wildcats look like a good value, but some people may believe motivation may be an issue. However, a look at John Calipari’s record seems to show he’s had no problems with his heavily favored teams slacking off. The last time he coached a team that did not win its conference tournament was 2005.

If UK doesn’t cut down the nets, the most likely alternatives would be #3 Vanderbilt or #4 Florida. Yes, Tennessee is the #2 seed, but it was really a three way tie for second place at 10-6, and our predictive ratings see the Vols as the weakest of the trio.

2012 Mountain West Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

SeedTeamSemiChampWin
3UNLV80.54%52.43%40.01%
2New Mexico88.73%39.99%26.50%
1San Diego St80.52%51.65%18.87%
4Colorado St68.66%32.68%9.39%
6Wyoming19.46%6.46%2.89%
5TX Christian31.34%9.50%1.39%
8Boise State19.48%6.17%0.68%
7Air Force11.27%1.12%0.27%

At various points in the Mountain West season, all three of the top seeds looked like they might be the best team in the conference. Third place UNLV impressed in nonconference play with a win over North Carolina, but then promptly lost to San Diego State to start the MWC season. The Aztecs beat both UNLV and New Mexico in January, but then lost 4 of 6 at the beginning of February. New Mexico beat both of the other top seeds back to back in mid-February, but closed by losing two of four.

While the top three teams garnered most of the acclaim, fourth seed Colorado State quietly put together a solid season. In fact, every team mentioned in this section — including the Rams —  went 1-1 against every other team, with the league title being decided by who stumbled the fewest times outside of this round robin. CSU has proven they can beat the other Mountain West powers, and at +1100 odds to win the conference tournament, they appear to be the best value on the board.

2012 Big West Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

SeedTeamSemiChampWin
1Lg Beach St99.42%91.90%74.67%
3UCSB81.68%52.97%14.52%
2CS Fullerton73.64%34.63%7.14%
4Cal Poly65.45%6.56%2.49%
7UC Irvine26.36%6.66%0.46%
6Pacific18.32%5.74%0.37%
5UC Riverside34.55%1.42%0.35%
8UC Davis0.58%0.11%0.01%

Top seeded Long Beach State played an absolutely murderous nonconference schedule — it was the 5th toughest in the country according to our ratings. It prepared them well for Big West play, and they breezed through, only missing an undefeated record by 3 points in their final game of the year. They are heavy favorites to represent the conference in the NCAA tournament, and if they make it no higher seed will want to see the 49ers across from them in the 2012 March Madness Bracket.

2012 Great West Tournament Round-By-Round Advancement Odds

SeedTeamSemiChampWin
1Utah Val St100.00%75.70%50.02%
2North Dakota100.00%64.46%29.07%
3TX-Pan Am100.00%35.54%11.21%
4NJIT58.96%16.00%6.87%
5Houston Bap41.04%8.30%2.83%

And finally, last but not least — well, OK, probably least as well — the Great West. The conference doesn’t own an automatic bid into the NCAA Bracket, and won’t until the year 2020. The fact that they play a tournament anyway means they must really love the game. Having only five teams participate also means that this is one of the tournaments in the country where every team really does have a reasonable shot to win.