2011-12 College Basketball Preview: Most Productive Returning Players

November 2, 2011 - by David Hess

Yesterday we posted some stats designed to measure the percent of returning production for the AP Top 25. That post told us, among other things, that Alabama’s defense might take a step back and that UConn’s would probably be alright.

Those team values were built from individual player stats like Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating, which we combined to try and estimate how much a player produced on each end of the court, compared to what you might expect from a replacement player off the bench. Since we have those values sitting in a spreadsheet, we thought it would be fun to share who the top returners are.

[Before we lay out the numbers we should point out that we didn’t make any adjustments for opponent strength. Since the original purpose was to look at how much a team is losing, and all the players on the team face basically the same schedule, other than a missed game here and there, we didn’t think it was necessary. Now that we’re comparing players between teams, that’s not really fair. As a quick and easy way to account for this, we’re going to group players according to conference quality, and show you separate “Top Returners” lists for major, mid major, and small conferences.]

OK, now that the disclaimer is out of the way, let’s get to the main point — what returning players were the most productive last year, on both ends of the court? First, the best offensive players…

Most Productive Returning Players (Offensive)

Name	Team	%Minutes	Usage Rate	Offensive Rating	OffVORP
MAJOR CONFERENCES
Jordan Taylor	Wisconsin	90.6%	23.8	131.0	9.7
Jared Sullinger	Ohio St	80.0%	21.6	126.9	7.1
Ashton Gibbs	Pittsburgh	74.5%	20.1	131.3	6.8
John Jenkins	Vanderbilt	78.3%	20.3	127.9	6.6
Marcus Denmon	Missouri	75.3%	17.9	130.2	6.0
MID MAJOR CONFERENCES
Terrell Holloway	Xavier	94.5%	22.8	118.4	7.0
Arsalan Kazemi	Rice	73.7%	20.3	123.8	5.7
Kevin Foster	Santa Clara	78.8%	27.8	111.5	5.6
Kyle Weems	Missouri State	77.7%	21.5	119.3	5.6
Matthew Dellavedova	St. Mary's	87.8%	17.9	119.7	5.3
SMALL CONFERENCES
Ken Horton	Central Conn. St.	87.3%	20.4	126.6	7.3
Orlando Johnson	UC Santa Barbara	82.2%	26.0	116.2	6.5
Dominique Morrison	Oral Roberts	71.4%	20.6	127.5	6.1
Reggie Hamilton	Oakland	71.7%	24.7	118.4	5.7
James Johnson	Quinnipiac	84.8%	20.6	118.9	5.7

It’s no wonder Jordan Taylor is a common choice for player of the year — he’s head and shoulders above the rest of the crowd in terms of offensive production, and voters love offense. To me, the most surprising major conference name on this list is Marcus Denmon. Maybe as a Kansas fan I naturally underrate him, but if you’d have given me a hundred guesses I might not have come up with him. It’ll be interesting to see how his production changes under new coach Frank Haith.

In the mid major section, Tu Holloway is no surprise at all. He stands a great chance of following in the footsteps of Jimmer Fredette, Stephen Curry, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Adam Morrison, and Jameer Nelson. All of those mid major players were named first team AP All-Americans, and all led their teams to the Sweet 16 or further in the NCAA tournament.

Out of those small conference players, the one belonging to best team may be Dominique Morrison of Oral Roberts. They should be the Summit League favorites by just a hair over Oakland, a team with — perhaps not coincidentally — another player on this list, in Reggie Hamilton.

Most Productive Returning Players (Defensive)

Name	Team	%Minutes	Defensive Rating	DefVORP
MAJOR CONFERENCES
Tony Mitchell	Alabama	78.3%	88.4	4.3
Jared Sullinger	Ohio St	80.0%	89.5	4.2
Terrence Jones	Kentucky	78.4%	89.6	4.1
John Henson	North Carolina	66.6%	85.6	4.0
JaMychal Green	Alabama	63.6%	84.9	4.0
MID MAJOR CONFERENCES
Kent Bazemore	Old Dominion	76.8%	90.7	3.9
T.J. McConnell	Duquesne	75.6%	90.9	3.8
Cameron Moore	UAB	74.3%	91.9	3.6
Keith Clanton	Central Florida	76.2%	92.8	3.5
Kendall Timmons	Tulane	89.8%	96.7	3.5
SMALL CONFERENCES
Brian Voelkel	Vermont	76.2%	87.5	4.3
Ryan Olander	Fairfield	74.9%	87.4	4.3
Derek Needham	Fairfield	87.4%	92.1	4.2
Ken Horton	Central Conn. St.	87.3%	92.7	4.1
Darrion Pellum	Hampton	87.2%	93.5	3.9

Look at that. The consensus top three teams this year — UNC, Kentucky, and Ohio State — all have a great defensive big man returning to anchor the squad. Of the three, John Henson was the best at altering shots without getting overly physical, ranking third in the nation last year in blocks per foul. Alabama has twice as many great defenders as those top squads, so I guess that makes them twice as good. (Some sartalics are desperately needed right about now.)

Kent Bazemore tops the list of returning mid major defenders, and he does it mostly by managing to nab 2.2 steals per game, while avoiding fouls like the plague. He actually had more steals than fouls this year, something only 40 players in the country managed.

Fairfield is apparently the Alabama of the MAAC. They had the lowest raw defensive efficiency in the country last season, and they’re returning their two key cogs: Ryan Olander and Derek Needham. So expect good things from the Stags.

Most Productive Returning Players (Combined)

Name	Team	%Min	Usage	OffRtg	DefRtg	OffVORP	DefVORP	TotVORP
MAJOR CONFERENCES
Jordan Taylor	Wisconsin	90.6%	23.8	131.0	104.7	9.7	2.0	11.7
Jared Sullinger	Ohio St	80.0%	21.6	126.9	89.5	7.1	4.2	11.3
Tony Mitchell	Alabama	78.3%	20.0	116.7	88.4	4.8	4.3	9.1
Ashton Gibbs	Pittsburgh	74.5%	20.1	131.3	102.3	6.8	2.0	8.8
John Jenkins	Vanderbilt	78.3%	20.3	127.9	104.1	6.6	1.9	8.5
MID MAJOR CONFERENCES
Terrell Holloway	Xavier	94.5%	22.8	118.4	98.7	7.0	3.3	10.2
Kyle Weems	Missouri State	77.7%	21.5	119.3	95.7	5.6	3.2	8.7
Arsalan Kazemi	Rice	73.7%	20.3	123.8	97.6	5.7	2.7	8.4
Kent Bazemore	Old Dominion	76.8%	20.6	111.8	90.7	4.1	3.9	8.0
Keith Clanton	Central Florida	76.2%	19.9	114.5	92.8	4.3	3.5	7.9
SMALL CONFERENCES
Ken Horton	Central Conn. St.	87.3%	20.4	126.6	92.7	7.3	4.1	11.3
Orlando Johnson	UC Santa Barbara	82.2%	26.0	116.2	100.5	6.5	2.6	9.0
James Johnson	Quinnipiac	84.8%	20.6	118.9	98.2	5.7	3.0	8.8
Michael Glover	Iona	84.6%	19.1	119.9	98.2	5.5	3.0	8.5
C.J. McCollum	Lehigh	85.5%	26.2	106.6	94.7	4.6	3.6	8.3

Ladies and gentlemen, we have our third Jared Sullinger sighting. He gets it done at both ends, and the 15 pounds he shed in the off-season should give him even a bit more elevation, so expect his block totals to rise, and perhaps his minutes played totals as well.

Kyle Weems is a player you may be hearing about a lot this year, if you’re a fan of mid major basketball. He was the Player of the Year last year in the Missouri Valley, and was the only player in the conference to crack the top 5 in points per game, rebounds per game, steals per game, field goal percentage, and free throw percentage.

In the small conference section, you’ll find five guys that, to be honest, I don’t know a whole lot about. However, I do know that one of the names on last year’s list of most productive returning small conference players was Kenneth Faried, who led Morehead State to an upset of Louisville in the NCAA tournament, while showing off his fantastic locks. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the players from this year’s list accomplishes a similar feat.