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September 1, 2011 - by David Hess
Throughout the preseason, we’ve been refining our college football season projections, adding bits of info that improve their accuracy (as confirmed by testing against historical data). The season is about to start, and we don’t have a static page up that will permanently display the preseason projections, so I’m posting them here, for the official record.
The page linked above will update throughout the season, always showing our most current projections for each team. The table below, that’s here to stay.
| TeamRankings Official 2011 College Football Projections | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | |||||||
| Atlantic | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Florida St | 6.1 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 90.40% | 28.60% | 5.70% |
| Clemson | 4.9 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 77.40% | 11.90% | 2.50% |
| NC State | 4.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 78.50% | 7.80% | 2.20% |
| Maryland | 3.7 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 58.90% | 5.60% | 0.80% |
| Boston Col | 3.6 | 4.4 | 6 | 6 | 58.00% | 4.60% | 0.80% |
| Wake Forest | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 46.50% | 2.60% | 0.40% |
| Coastal | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| VA Tech | 5.6 | 2.4 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 90.00% | 14.20% | 8.50% |
| Miami (FL) | 4.9 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 77.60% | 12.40% | 2.50% |
| GA Tech | 4.1 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 71.70% | 6.20% | 1.90% |
| N Carolina | 3.3 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 60.30% | 2.90% | 0.80% |
| Duke | 2.4 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 41.00% | 1.80% | 0.20% |
| Virginia | 2.2 | 5.8 | 5 | 7 | 43.60% | 1.40% | 0.20% |
| Big 12 | |||||||
| Team | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Oklahoma | 7.4 | 1.6 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 95.30% | 35.20% | 12.20% |
| Oklahoma St | 6.4 | 2.6 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 88.90% | 18.30% | 5.60% |
| Missouri | 6 | 3 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 88.10% | 13.90% | 3.90% |
| Texas A&M | 6 | 3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 84.40% | 14.90% | 3.40% |
| Texas | 5.4 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 76.10% | 10.30% | 2.20% |
| Texas Tech | 3.9 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 61.90% | 3.10% | 0.60% |
| Kansas St | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 46.20% | 1.70% | 0.20% |
| Baylor | 3 | 6 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 42.70% | 1.60% | 0.20% |
| Kansas | 2.1 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 24.50% | 0.50% | 0.00% |
| Iowa State | 1.7 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 8.7 | 20.00% | 0.40% | 0.00% |
| Big East | |||||||
| Team | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| W Virginia | 5.2 | 1.8 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 92.70% | 30.30% | 8.20% |
| Pittsburgh | 4.7 | 2.3 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 85.10% | 21.70% | 4.50% |
| Cincinnati | 4.2 | 2.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 84.50% | 17.20% | 3.90% |
| S Florida | 3.8 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 76.90% | 12.70% | 2.00% |
| Connecticut | 3.2 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 72.00% | 6.80% | 1.30% |
| Syracuse | 2.6 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 54.50% | 4.60% | 0.50% |
| Louisville | 2.4 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 52.30% | 3.50% | 0.40% |
| Rutgers | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 45.40% | 3.20% | 0.40% |
| Big Ten | |||||||
| Leaders | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Ohio State | 5.5 | 2.5 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 88.90% | 18.00% | 6.10% |
| Wisconsin | 4.9 | 3.1 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 84.90% | 10.40% | 3.60% |
| Illinois | 4.9 | 3.1 | 8 | 4 | 81.80% | 12.70% | 3.50% |
| Penn State | 4.8 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 81.50% | 11.10% | 2.50% |
| Purdue | 3 | 5 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 54.00% | 2.30% | 0.40% |
| Indiana | 1.4 | 6.6 | 4 | 8 | 29.70% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
| Legends | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Nebraska | 5.6 | 2.4 | 9.3 | 2.7 | 92.30% | 19.10% | 8.50% |
| Michigan | 4.6 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 77.20% | 10.60% | 2.70% |
| Michigan St | 4.6 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 81.90% | 6.90% | 2.10% |
| Iowa | 4.2 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 73.10% | 5.10% | 1.60% |
| Northwestrn | 3 | 5 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 54.50% | 2.60% | 0.50% |
| Minnesota | 1.5 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 28.50% | 0.80% | 0.10% |
| Conference USA | |||||||
| East | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Central FL | 5.9 | 2.1 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 86.40% | 21.60% | 4.60% |
| S Mississippi | 5.5 | 2.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 81.80% | 17.10% | 3.90% |
| E Carolina | 4.8 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 55.70% | 7.50% | 0.60% |
| UAB | 3.1 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 32.40% | 3.10% | 0.10% |
| Marshall | 2.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 23.70% | 1.70% | 0.00% |
| Memphis | 1.6 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 16.30% | 0.30% | 0.00% |
| West | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Tulsa | 6.1 | 1.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 78.00% | 20.60% | 0.70% |
| Houston | 5.7 | 2.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 85.20% | 12.70% | 4.60% |
| S Methodist | 4.9 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 68.50% | 10.50% | 0.50% |
| Rice | 3.6 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 36.40% | 3.30% | 0.10% |
| Tulane | 2 | 6 | 3.4 | 9.6 | 14.90% | 0.40% | 0.00% |
| TX El Paso | 2 | 6 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 31.30% | 1.10% | 0.10% |
| Independents | |||||||
| Team | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Navy | -- | -- | 7.4 | 4.6 | 75.30% | -- | 1.50% |
| Notre Dame | -- | -- | 7.2 | 4.8 | 71.40% | -- | 2.00% |
| Army | -- | -- | 4.6 | 7.4 | 38.10% | -- | 0.20% |
| BYU | -- | -- | 7.9 | 4.1 | 86.20% | -- | 2.10% |
| MAC | |||||||
| East | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Temple | 6 | 2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 84.00% | 14.10% | 3.60% |
| Ohio | 5 | 3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 77.60% | 11.10% | 3.00% |
| Miami (OH) | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 38.60% | 2.90% | 0.10% |
| Kent State | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 48.00% | 2.50% | 0.10% |
| Buffalo | 2.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 25.70% | 1.60% | 0.00% |
| Bowling Grn | 2.4 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 32.40% | 1.60% | 0.10% |
| Akron | 2.1 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 8.8 | 19.00% | 0.70% | 0.00% |
| West | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| N Illinois | 6.6 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 93.40% | 31.30% | 7.50% |
| W Michigan | 5.4 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 74.00% | 12.90% | 1.10% |
| Central Mich | 5 | 3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 67.00% | 9.90% | 0.90% |
| Toledo | 4.5 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 57.20% | 7.60% | 0.30% |
| Ball State | 3.3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 35.30% | 3.40% | 0.10% |
| E Michigan | 1.7 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 8.7 | 16.30% | 0.30% | 0.00% |
| MWC | |||||||
| Team | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Boise State | 6.5 | 0.5 | 11.1 | 0.9 | 99.40% | 59.00% | 30.00% |
| TX Christian | 5.6 | 1.4 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 99.00% | 22.20% | 12.30% |
| Air Force | 4.9 | 2.1 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 94.20% | 10.20% | 2.70% |
| San Diego St | 4.2 | 2.8 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 85.00% | 7.70% | 1.60% |
| Colorado St | 2.1 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 40.30% | 0.50% | 0.10% |
| Wyoming | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 39.70% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| New Mexico | 1.4 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 10.80% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| UNLV | 1.3 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 9.3 | 9.90% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| Pac-12 | |||||||
| North | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Oregon | 7.9 | 1.1 | 10.6 | 1.4 | 98.30% | 43.10% | 21.00% |
| Stanford | 6.7 | 2.3 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 93.80% | 19.90% | 8.60% |
| California | 5.4 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 76.40% | 7.20% | 1.30% |
| Oregon St | 4.5 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 66.90% | 3.70% | 0.90% |
| Washington | 2.3 | 6.7 | 4 | 8 | 26.90% | 0.40% | 0.00% |
| Wash State | 1.1 | 7.9 | 3 | 9 | 14.60% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| South | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Utah | 5.7 | 3.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 79.90% | 5.10% | 2.90% |
| USC | 5.4 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 79.50% | 7.10% | 2.20% |
| Arizona St | 5.3 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 76.10% | 4.90% | 1.70% |
| Arizona | 4.8 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 74.80% | 6.60% | 1.60% |
| UCLA | 3.7 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 54.60% | 1.50% | 0.50% |
| Colorado | 2.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 9.4 | 15.20% | 0.60% | 0.00% |
| SEC | |||||||
| East | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| S Carolina | 5.2 | 2.8 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 87.90% | 14.80% | 5.80% |
| Florida | 5.1 | 2.9 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 91.20% | 14.70% | 5.00% |
| Georgia | 4.9 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 79.80% | 11.40% | 2.60% |
| Tennessee | 2.7 | 5.3 | 6 | 6 | 59.90% | 2.10% | 0.40% |
| Kentucky | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 56.80% | 1.20% | 0.40% |
| Vanderbilt | 1.8 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 35.10% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| West | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Alabama | 5.8 | 2.2 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 95.20% | 18.00% | 9.60% |
| LSU | 5.1 | 2.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 80.90% | 14.90% | 2.50% |
| Arkansas | 4.6 | 3.4 | 8 | 4 | 83.60% | 7.60% | 3.00% |
| Auburn | 4.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 81.10% | 8.00% | 2.30% |
| Miss State | 3.8 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 78.90% | 5.50% | 2.00% |
| Mississippi | 2.4 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 46.90% | 1.40% | 0.40% |
| Sun Belt | |||||||
| Team | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Troy | 5.9 | 2.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 72.70% | 27.50% | 0.90% |
| Florida Intl | 5.1 | 2.9 | 7 | 5 | 70.00% | 17.60% | 1.90% |
| Arkansas St | 5.1 | 2.9 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 73.80% | 18.40% | 0.90% |
| LA Monroe | 4.4 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 50.50% | 12.00% | 0.10% |
| Middle Tenn | 4.2 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 51.20% | 9.60% | 0.40% |
| W Kentucky | 3.6 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 42.30% | 7.00% | 0.10% |
| North Texas | 2.7 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 8.8 | 20.20% | 2.70% | 0.00% |
| Fla Atlantic | 2.5 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 16.10% | 2.80% | 0.00% |
| LA Lafayette | 2.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 22.80% | 2.40% | 0.00% |
| WAC | |||||||
| Team | conf W | L | overall W | L | Bowl Eligible | Win Conf | Undef |
| Nevada | 6.2 | 0.8 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 93.50% | 53.80% | 1.60% |
| Hawaii | 4.4 | 2.6 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 73.90% | 13.00% | 1.90% |
| Fresno St | 4.3 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 46.20% | 12.00% | 0.10% |
| LA Tech | 4.1 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 62.80% | 11.30% | 0.60% |
| Idaho | 2.9 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 39.90% | 3.60% | 0.10% |
| Utah State | 2.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 40.10% | 3.40% | 0.10% |
| San Jose St | 2.3 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 9.1 | 15.80% | 2.40% | 0.00% |
| N Mex State | 1.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 10.8 | 5.70% | 0.50% | 0.00% |
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