Stat Geek Perspective: College Football Team Win Total Over/Under Predictions

August 23, 2011 - by David Hess

Four days ago we posted an analysis on which NFL teams were likely to go over or under their Vegas NFL win totals. Today, we’ll do the same for college football, though unfortunately we won’t be able to dig as deep into individual picks.

The table below is very similar to the one from last week, but we’ve decided to expose a few more of our internal numbers. Last week, we showed you a “TR Pick” that was based on an ROI (return on investment) calculation we’d done behind the scenes, along with some subjective adjustments. This week, we’re going to expose to you the actual calculated ROI values, un-adjusted. This, however, comes with a big, boldfaced disclaimer:

Our preseason projections are basically in a “beta” version, and don’t include some factors that are likely meaningful. Most importantly, they don’t include any information on A) recruiting class strength, B) which specific players left the team [though they do penalize teams for losing high draft picks, and for not returning very many starters], and C) coaching changes. Please consider these factors and adjust teams up or down as you see fit.

OK, now that that’s out of the way, let’s tell you exactly what’s in the table. For each team, we show:

Our predicted season win total for a team, taken from our college football projected standings. (For more info, see our season projections methodology)
The betting market win total for a team.
The current odds to bet on a team to win more than (Over) or less than (Under) the published win total.
Our projected probability of each team winning more than (Over), less than (Under) or exactly the same number as (Push) the betting market win total.
The ROI (return on investment) one would receive over the long run if they were to bet the Over or Under, assuming our projections are correct.

And, here’s the table. Due to time constraints, we’re going to have to present it without commentary on the individual picks. But, if there’s one that you’re particularly curious about, leave a comment, and we’ll try to respond promptly.

Team	Team Rankings	Vegas	Over Odds	Under Odds	Over Proj	Under Proj	Push Proj	Over ROI	Under ROI
Alabama	9.8	10.0	-146	125	31%	48%	21%	-26%	28%
Arizona	6.9	6.5	213	-256	56%	44%	0%	76%	-39%
Auburn	8.1	6.5	124	-145	74%	26%	0%	65%	-56%
Baylor	4.6	6.5	111	-130	23%	77%	0%	-52%	36%
Boise St	10.9	10.0	-315	258	56%	24%	20%	-6%	6%
Clemson	7.7	7.0	-104	-112	51%	34%	15%	14%	-20%
Florida	8.3	8.0	178	-211	45%	38%	17%	41%	-27%
Florida St	9.1	10.0	134	-157	21%	61%	18%	-32%	17%
Georgia	7.5	8.0	-184	156	33%	51%	16%	-33%	47%
Georgia Tech	7.2	6.0	-130	111	59%	27%	14%	19%	-29%
Iowa	7.8	8.0	156	-184	37%	47%	16%	11%	-11%
Kansas St	5.7	5.5	105	-123	54%	46%	0%	11%	-17%
Kentucky	6.5	6.0	-175	149	50%	34%	16%	-5%	0%
Michigan	7.3	7.0	-144	123	45%	40%	15%	-8%	3%
Michigan St	7.4	7.0	-304	250	47%	36%	17%	-20%	43%
Mississippi St	7.0	7.0	-195	165	41%	43%	16%	-22%	29%
Missouri	8.7	7.5	-127	109	67%	33%	0%	19%	-31%
Nebraska	9.1	10.0	122	-143	22%	61%	18%	-35%	21%
Notre Dame	7.1	9.0	134	-157	16%	72%	12%	-50%	29%
Ohio State	9.3	9.0	186	-221	42%	41%	17%	37%	-23%
Oklahoma	9.6	10.0	-121	104	27%	53%	19%	-31%	28%
Oklahoma St	8.5	8.0	-257	214	46%	38%	16%	-20%	34%
Oregon St	5.4	7.0	186	-221	20%	67%	14%	-30%	10%
Penn St	7.4	8.0	116	-136	32%	52%	16%	-15%	7%
South Florida	7.3	8.0	145	-171	30%	55%	15%	-11%	2%
Stanford	9.4	8.5	-216	182	62%	38%	0%	-10%	8%
Syracuse	5.4	6.0	-132	113	34%	50%	16%	-24%	22%
Tennessee	5.9	6.5	-146	125	41%	59%	0%	-31%	33%
Texas	7.3	8.5	173	-205	30%	70%	0%	-17%	4%
Texas A&M	8.2	8.5	-218	183	42%	58%	0%	-39%	65%
Texas Tech	6.7	7.0	129	-151	37%	47%	16%	1%	-6%
TCU	10.5	9.0	-151	129	71%	13%	15%	34%	-54%
UCLA	5.4	5.5	-103	-113	50%	50%	0%	-2%	-5%
USC	7.7	7.5	-140	120	51%	49%	0%	-12%	7%
Virginia Tech	9.5	10.0	-125	107	27%	54%	18%	-33%	31%
West Virginia	9.1	9.0	106	-124	40%	43%	18%	-1%	-5%
Wisconsin	8.7	9.0	-174	148	32%	50%	17%	-32%	42%