College Football BCS Conference Preview: Pac-12

August 22, 2011 - by David Hess

[Editor’s Note: This is the third of six NCAA Football BCS Conference Previews. We’ll have a new post every Monday and Tuesday evening. Already posted: ACC Preview, SEC Preview]

Last year, the Oregon–Stanford game determined the winner of the Pac-10 Conference, and granted the Ducks the privilege of squaring off against the SEC’s best in the BCS title game. This season, we wouldn’t be surprised if the exact same description holds — with the exception of the league’s new moniker.

While the addition of Utah and Colorado has shaken up the structure and logistics involved in determining the conference champion, not much has changed on the field of play. The same two teams are expected by nearly all sources to top the Pac-12, and only one of the newcomers even has a fighting chance to contend for a division title.

Here’s how Vegas, other experts, and TeamRankings see the conference shaking out:

Team	Vegas BCS Champ Odds	Vegas Div Odds	Vegas Win Total	TR Overall Wins	TR Conf Wins	Avg Division Rank*
NORTH DIVISION
Oregon	14/1	5/4	9.5	10.6	7.9	1.25
Stanford	20/1	7/4	8.5	9.4	6.6	1.75
Oregon St	200/1	13/2	7.0	5.4	4.3	3.63
California	150/1	10/1	--	7.5	5.6	4.00
Washington	200/1	13/2	6.0	4.4	2.6	4.38
Wash St	--	40/1	4.5	2.8	1.0	6.00
SOUTH DIVISION
Arizona St	50/1	19/10	8.0	7.7	5.5	1.50
USC	--	--	7.6	7.7	5.3	2.25
Utah	200/1	2/1	--	7.9	5.8	2.50
Arizona	200/1	3/1	6.5	6.9	4.5	3.75
UCLA	200/1	6/1	5.5	5.4	3.5	5.00
Colorado	--	8/1	4.0	3.8	2.4	6.00

*The average division rank incorporates Vegas odds from leading sportsbooks, TeamRankings college football projected standings, and a variety of other expert and statistical projections (including those of Prediction Machine and Football Outsiders).

Pick to Win: Oregon Ducks

Oregon and Stanford look similar in the eyes of our preseason ratings projection system: great prior season ratings (good), relatively high turnover margins (bad), 13 returning starters (average), no high draft picks lost (good), not solely reliant on passing for their offense (good). But there’s one important category that elevates the Ducks above the Cardinal — Oregon has been the better team every season for the last 4 years, and that better history counts for something.

While they’re not a unanimous pick to win the conference, the Ducks did receive first place votes in both preseason polls, so we feel our computer models are on the right track. Oregon returns their key offensive cogs in Darron Thomas and LaMichael James, and should be well-equipped to replace the starters they lost on defense, because their tendency to use up to 25 defensive players per game makes any single player less important and ensures that this year’s replacements already have some experience.

Underrated: Utah Utes

It seems the Utes may be getting dinged a bit due the difficulty of projecting their performance in a tougher conference, after transferring from the Mountain West. They were a top 25 quality team last season, and we project them to maintain that level this season — they didn’t lose any high draft picks, and there are no red flags in their projection profile. Yet they were picked to finish as low as 4th in their own division by one of the rival projection systems we polled, and their national title odds (200/1) are as long of those of Arizona, UCLA, Oregon State, and Washington. We think they stand a very good shot to capture the South Division crown.

Overrated: USC Trojans

Overall, Vegas and the other experts and computer projections we surveyed were in general agreement about the Pac-12; there were unanimous choices for the top two (Oregon, Stanford) and bottom three (Colorado, Washington State, UCLA). The biggest disagreement we had with the projected standings of any other ranking was with one publication that rated USC as the best in the South. We agree with their Vegas win total, and place them in the top Southern tier along with Utah and Arizona State, but feel the fact that they have to replace more draft picks than their competitors puts them at a slight disadvantage. Plus, they are slated to face the toughest schedule of any South Division squad.

Best Value

California Golden Bears to Win Pac-12 North Division (10/1)

9.0% break even percentage / 13.0% TR Odds

View the details of the Cal 2010 game log, and you’ll see they were one of the unluckier teams in college football, losing games by 1 (at Arizona), 2 (vs. Oregon), and 3 points (vs. Washington), while collecting most of their wins by huge margins. Despite their 4-7 record, they finished #28 in our predictive power rating, and return an impressive 19 starters. Both their defense and their offense showed flashes of brilliance last year, and if they can manage both at the same time, they have an outside shot at pulling an upset and claiming the division crown.

Oregon Ducks to Win Pac-12 North Division (5/4)

44.0% break even percentage / 53.8% TR Odds

We’re as surprised as you are. Rarely would you expect to find any value in betting one of the top ranked teams in the nation to repeat as division winners — defending division champs and highly ranked teams are usually both overpriced. Why not in this case? One game may hold the key.

Our projections have them as roughly 60/40 favorites in their game at Stanford, whereas we’d guess that the betting public assumes Stanford will be the favorite. That one game has a huge impact on the division standings. If you feel we’re overestimating Oregon’s chances in Palo Alto, then there’s no longer much value here, if any.