College Football BCS Conference Preview: Big East

This is the last of six NCAA Football Conference Previews, covering the BCS conferences. The others: ACC PreviewSEC PreviewPac-12 PreviewBig Ten Preview, Big 12 Preview.

The Big East was easily the weakest BCS conference last year, sending middle of the road Connecticut to the Fiesta Bowl.  There is potential for the conference to improve this year though, as AP #24 West Virginia also sneaks into our top 25, with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati sitting just outside.  There likely won’t be any juggernauts coming out of this group, but at least their BCS representative could be respectable this season.

Here’s how we, Vegas, and a couple other popular computer projection systems see the conference shaking out:

TeamVegas BCS Champ OddsVegas Conf OddsVegas Win TotalTR Overall WinsTR Conf WinsAvg Conf Rank*
West Virginia30/12/19.09.15.01.25
Pittsburgh150/17/2--8.24.62.00
Cincinnati125/17/1--8.14.23.25
South Florida200/15/28.07.33.63.50
Connecticut--22/1--7.73.65.75
Louisville--10/1--6.02.86.25
Syracuse--18/16.05.42.37.00
Rutgers--12/1--4.81.97.00

*The average conference rank incorporates odds from leading sportsbooks, TeamRankings college football projections, and a variety of other expert and statistical projections (including those of Prediction Machine and Football Outsiders).

Pick to Win: West Virginia Mountaineers

Based off our power ratings West Virginia was probably the true best team in the conference last year.  They accomplished that despite having a negative turnover margin, which is likely not to continue this year.  Therefore, despite returning an average 13 starters this year, we see the Mountaineers improving slightly this season, and eventually outpacing Pittsburgh for the title.

Underrated: Cincinnati Bearcats

The Bearcats came out of nowhere last year to stink, going just 4-8.  Their one year dip however is more likely one bad egg than a trend (especially with their turnover margin), and we project them with a good chance to double their win total in 2011.  Don’t be surprised to find Cincinnati in the top 25 at the end of the year.

Overrated: South Florida Bulls

Most teams in the Big East are appropriately considered not too good, but the Bulls are a little bit of an exception.  By conference win odds Vegas sees them as almost on West Virginia’s level.  BCS championship odds though put them far below the Mountaineers.  With three straight mediocre seasons and only 12 returning starters, we think USF belongs in the middle of the pack.

Best Value

Connecticut Huskies to win the Big East (22/1)

4.3% break even percentage / 9.6% TR Odds

People appear to have correctly noticed that the Huskies only won the conference last year because they were lucky.  What they’re missing though is the 17 returning starters, and the fact that last year’s team may have been the worst of its previous four.  The Huskies are probably just an average team, but last year could happen again.