Now that our full and final 2012 college football preseason rankings are out, here are some of the highlights. Below you’ll find the top ten …
… Toughest schedules.
… Easiest schedules.
… Most improved.
… Biggest declines.
… Most likely undefeated.
… Most likely winless.
… Highest conference win odds.
… Bowl bubble teams.
All the ratings below are expressed in “points above average”. It’s essentially how much we expect the team to win (or lose) by, if they play a perfectly average opponent at a neutral site.
To give you an idea of the typical range, Alabama and LSU last year finished the year at +27.1, while New Mexico was the worst at -30.7. Our preseason ratings will have a narrower range (about +20 to -20), simply because the best ratings in real life we be a combination of good skill and good luck, and we’re only predicting the skill portion, not the luck.
Many of the odds below can be found on our college football season projections page, which updates daily throughout the season, or on individual team projections pages — like this Alabama projections page.
Toughest 2012 Schedule
The strength of schedule ratings answer the question: “If you replaced all of this team’s games with a single opponent, what rating would that opponent need to be in order for the team’s projected wins to stay the same?”
This is different than just averaging the opponent ratings. For example, for Oklahoma, playing a team rated -10 or a team rated -20 is basically the same (a near-automatic win), so their SOS wouldn’t change much if you switched one for the other. On the other hand, playing a team rated +10 or a team rated +20 is a huge difference — the difference between OU being a solid favorite, or the game being a toss up. So, for OU, the ratings differences of good teams make the most difference in their SOS. For a bad team, the situation is reversed.
| SOS Rank | Team | SOS |
| 1 | Oklahoma | 7.0 |
| 2 | Alabama | 6.9 |
| 3 | TCU | 6.2 |
| 4 | Notre Dame | 5.9 |
| 5 | Texas | 5.8 |
| 6 | LSU | 5.7 |
| 7 | Florida | 5.5 |
| 8 | Oklahoma St | 5.1 |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 5.1 |
| 10 | Missouri | 5.1 |
Easiest 2012 Schedule
| SOS Rank | Team | SOS |
| 124 | UT San Antonio | -16.7 |
| 123 | Memphis | -12.9 |
| 122 | New Mexico St | -12.6 |
| 121 | New Mexico | -11.2 |
| 120 | South Alabama | -10.9 |
| 119 | Colorado St | -10.8 |
| 118 | Middle Tennessee | -10.8 |
| 117 | Texas St | -10.7 |
| 116 | UNLV | -10.1 |
| 115 | San Jose St | -10.0 |
Most Improved In 2012 (Of Above Average 2011 Teams)
| 2012 Rank | 2011 Rank | Rank Change | Team | 2012 Rating | 2011 Rating | Rating Change |
| 10 | 26 | 16 | Florida | 13.0 | 7.7 | 5.3 |
| 31 | 55 | 24 | Tennessee | 5.4 | 0.6 | 4.8 |
| 14 | 30 | 16 | Nebraska | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 |
| 7 | 21 | 14 | Texas | 14.1 | 10.5 | 3.6 |
| 34 | 51 | 17 | Auburn | 4.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| 27 | 41 | 14 | South Florida | 6.9 | 3.9 | 3.0 |
| 28 | 43 | 15 | Georgia Tech | 6.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| 41 | 53 | 12 | North Carolina | 3.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| 22 | 34 | 12 | Ohio St | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.2 |
| 39 | 52 | 13 | Pittsburgh | 3.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
Biggest Declines In 2012 (Of Above Average 2011 Teams)
| 2012 Rank | 2011 Rank | Rank Change | Team | 2012 Rating | 2011 Rating | Rating Change |
| 20 | 7 | -13 | Boise St | 8.9 | 21.4 | -12.5 |
| 8 | 3 | -5 | Oklahoma St | 13.4 | 25.4 | -12.0 |
| 5 | 1 | -4 | LSU | 15.2 | 27.1 | -11.9 |
| 18 | 8 | -10 | Wisconsin | 9.1 | 21.0 | -11.9 |
| 35 | 10 | -25 | Houston | 4.4 | 15.8 | -11.4 |
| 70 | 24 | -46 | Arizona St | -2.6 | 8.2 | -10.8 |
| 9 | 5 | -4 | Stanford | 13.1 | 23.8 | -10.7 |
| 3 | 4 | 1 | Oregon | 16.4 | 25.2 | -8.8 |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | Alabama | 20.7 | 27.1 | -6.4 |
| 32 | 20 | -12 | Michigan St | 5.0 | 11.3 | -6.3 |
Most Improved In 2012 (Of Below Average 2011 Teams)
| 2012 Rank | 2011 Rank | Rank Change | Team | 2012 Rating | 2011 Rating | Rating Change |
| 122 | 120 | -2 | New Mexico | -21.5 | -30.7 | 9.2 |
| 119 | 117 | -2 | Florida Atlantic | -17.0 | -26.2 | 9.2 |
| 61 | 93 | 32 | Mississippi | -0.6 | -9.6 | 9.0 |
| 67 | 97 | 30 | Bowling Green | -2.0 | -10.7 | 8.7 |
| 98 | 108 | 10 | Troy | -7.9 | -16.0 | 8.1 |
| 85 | 104 | 19 | Kansas | -6.2 | -14.2 | 8.0 |
| 100 | 106 | 6 | Central Michigan | -8.1 | -15.9 | 7.8 |
| 123 | 119 | -4 | Akron | -22.4 | -30.1 | 7.7 |
| 96 | 105 | 9 | Eastern Michigan | -7.6 | -15.0 | 7.4 |
| 101 | 107 | 6 | Indiana | -8.9 | -16.0 | 7.1 |
Biggest Declines In 2012 (Of Below Average 2011 Teams)
| 2012 Rank | 2011 Rank | Rank Change | Team | 2012 Rating | 2011 Rating | Rating Change |
| 99 | 67 | -32 | San Diego St | -8.0 | -1.6 | -6.4 |
| 97 | 72 | -25 | Washington St | -7.7 | -2.7 | -5.0 |
| 110 | 94 | -16 | San Jose St | -14.5 | -9.8 | -4.7 |
| 78 | 65 | -13 | Arkansas St | -4.4 | -1.1 | -3.3 |
| 76 | 62 | -14 | Northwestern | -4.0 | -0.8 | -3.2 |
| 121 | 112 | -9 | New Mexico St | -21.3 | -18.7 | -2.6 |
| 107 | 92 | -15 | Colorado | -11.9 | -9.5 | -2.4 |
| 72 | 63 | -9 | SMU | -2.9 | -0.8 | -2.1 |
| 77 | 69 | -8 | Wake Forest | -4.3 | -2.4 | -1.9 |
| 103 | 82 | -21 | Hawaii | -9.4 | -7.7 | -1.7 |
Most Likely Undefeated Teams
| Team | Team Rank | SOS Rank | Proj Record | Undefeated% |
| Oklahoma | 1 | 1 | 10.4 - 1.6 | 18.7% |
| Alabama | 2 | 2 | 10.3 - 1.7 | 16.7% |
| Oregon | 3 | 27 | 10.4 - 1.6 | 16.1% |
| Boise State | 20 | 74 | 9.9 - 2.1 | 12.4% |
| Southern California | 4 | 13 | 9.7 - 2.3 | 10.3% |
| Houston | 35 | 82 | 9.5 - 2.5 | 9.5% |
| Florida State | 12 | 36 | 9.5 - 2.5 | 8.9% |
| Nebraska | 14 | 29 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 7.2% |
| Louisiana State | 5 | 6 | 9.2 - 2.8 | 6.9% |
| Wisconsin | 18 | 47 | 9.1 - 2.9 | 6.8% |
Least Likely To Win A Single Game
| Team | Team Rank | SOS Rank | Proj Wins | Winless% |
| Akron | 123 | 113 | 1.9 - 10.1 | 10.2% |
| Memphis | 124 | 123 | 2.3 - 9.7 | 8.9% |
| Massachusetts | 112 | 81 | 2.9 - 9.1 | 6.5% |
| Tulane | 120 | 109 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 6.3% |
| New Mexico | 122 | 121 | 2.8 - 10.2 | 6.0% |
| New Mexico State | 121 | 122 | 3.0 - 9.0 | 4.6% |
| Florida Atlantic | 119 | 111 | 3.3 - 8.7 | 3.6% |
| Ball State | 88 | 72 | 4.6 - 7.4 | 2.8% |
| Buffalo | 109 | 85 | 3.3 - 8.7 | 2.7% |
| Rice | 108 | 91 | 4.1 - 7.9 | 2.7% |
Highest Conference Win Odds
| Team | Team Rank | Proj Conf Record | Win Conf% |
| Boise State | 20 | 7.2 - 0.8 | 48.1% |
| Louisiana Tech | 58 | 5.0 - 1.0 | 45.7% |
| Oklahoma | 1 | 7.6 - 1.4 | 39.5% |
| Florida State | 12 | 6.4 - 1.6 | 32.2% |
| Oregon | 3 | 7.4 - 1.6 | 30.9% |
| Utah State | 64 | 4.7 - 1.3 | 30.9% |
| Alabama | 2 | 6.5 - 1.5 | 29.9% |
| Southern California | 4 | 7.0 - 2.0 | 27.4% |
| Wisconsin | 18 | 5.6 - 2.4 | 25.1% |
| South Florida | 27 | 4.7 - 2.3 | 24.9% |
Bowl Bubble Teams (Bowl Eligibility Odds Closest to 50%)
| Team | Team Rank | SOS Rank | Proj Record | Bowl Eligible% |
| UL Monroe | 90 | 92 | 5.8 - 6.2 | 53.5% |
| UCLA | 57 | 37 | 5.7 - 6.3 | 53.5% |
| Colorado State | 106 | 119 | 5.7 - 6.3 | 53.2% |
| Washington | 54 | 34 | 5.6 - 6.4 | 51.8% |
| Wyoming | 104 | 108 | 5.6 - 6.4 | 51.5% |
| Miami | 52 | 25 | 5.5 - 6.5 | 51.3% |
| North Texas | 102 | 100 | 5.4 - 6.6 | 49.1% |
| Hawaii | 103 | 101 | 5.4 - 6.6 | 48.6% |
| Marshall | 93 | 80 | 5.3 - 6.7 | 47.3% |
| Virginia | 75 | 64 | 5.2 - 6.8 | 46.8% |
