2011-2012 NCAA College Football Bowl Games Mailbag: User Questions About Pick’em Strategy, ATS Results, and Bowl Packages

December 9, 2011 - by David Hess

We’ve gotten a ton of emails over the past few days about our 2011-2012 college football bowl games section, so we thought it would be a good idea to post some of the questions and answers.

If you have a question not covered here, feel free to ask in the comment section below, email our support account, or Tweet it to us at @TR_CFB or @TeamRankings.

When does your Bowl package start?

Thanks,
2-kool

We have initial computer-based 2011-2012 College Bowl Pick’em Picks & Advice [premium] up right now, based on very early information. These picks could change significantly as we receive betting lines, process public pick data, and do additional analysis.

We intend to have our preliminary picks posted by Wednesday, December 14, and final picks posted by Friday, December 16. (It’s best to wait until the last minute to submit your pick’em picks.)

Quick question for you. I’m in a bowl pool with 100+. You get the points associated with losing teams subtracted from your total. Which strategy would you suggest?

Thanks
Adam P

Surprisingly, subtracting points for losing shouldn’t change your strategy at all. That’s mathematically equivalent to just doubling everybody’s score, and then subtracting 630 points. So the relative value of picks doesn’t change at all, it’s just that the actual numbers will be lower.

Our Aggressive strategy is the one we recommend for pools of around 100 people. Very Aggressive is for 500+. If you’re somewhere in the middle, you might try to use a blend, or just go with the Aggressive. We should have more in depth recommendations regarding pool sizes next week.

I am actually now looking to purchase your Bowl Pick’em Package. Quick question: What is the difference between the ‘College Bowl Pick’em Advice’ and the ‘College Bowl Game Winner Predictions 2011-2012?’ Are they synonymous and/or are they both included in the $19 option? Can you purchase each separately and is one analysis better than the other?

Thanks for all you guys do!

Best,
Christian

Those are very similar, but slightly different. Both are included in the $19 package. Here’s what you can expect if you sign up for a Bowl Season 2011-12 Package:

Which is the strategy that was used to beat 99.2% of ESPN users last year?

Thanks,
Rob

(This question is referring to our three different strategies for 2011-2012 College Bowl Pick’em Picks [premium].)

That would be our Very Aggressive strategy. That one is designed to be kind of boom-or-bust, and last year was a boom! But, all three of our strategies (Conservative, Aggressive, and Very Aggressive) finished in the 97th percentile or better.

been keeping an eye on your nfl ats picks 10 right last week wish i could find someone right around 12 but i know thats wishing big i like your site and im thinking about trying the bowl games ats i have a few people that are trying to get me into a couple of pools 1 with no spread involved and 1 with spread i usually dont get into those but i will see how your week 14 nfl ats picks go and i think that will be my swaying factor good luck

-anonymous

Thanks for the interest in our picks. We’re happy you’re checking out our site, but we’re a little concerned that you’re going to base your judgment on a single week of picks (16 games). That’s too small of a sample size to have much real meaning, and even excellent pickers will sometimes have bad weeks.

For example, even if a picker’s “true” rate is 60% for each game, there is almost a 1 in 3 chance that he’ll go 8-8 or worse in any given week. You need to look at much larger time periods in order to draw any kind of reliable conclusion. In your case, since you’re curious about NCAA football pick’em pools, I’d check out our college football Prediction Accuracy pages:

Also, check out our blog series on college football pick’em strategy. We’ll be going above and beyond this during bowl season, taking into account extra factors that our models usually miss. For example, check out our post on bowl team coaching turmoil.

At any rate, I hope you’ll find the depth of info on our site useful, and that you’ll trust our extensive history of Bowl Pick’em success. But if your decision still comes down to this week’s NFL games, well … I hope we go 16-0!

OK, That’s all for now! If the questions keep coming, I’m sure there will be another batch soon.

By the way, if you’re going to compete in a Bowl Pick’em or are planning on wagering on some of the games, make sure to check out our 2011-2012 college football bowl games section, complete with bowl predictions, bowl betting picks, and bowl pick’em advice and picks.