Here’s a rapid-fire list of weekly highlights from the vast array of NFL content we publish on TeamRankings. We’ll also share some predictions and picks for Week 6 and beyond.
Our NFL Week 6 contest is open! Total prize pool $2,249. Claim your spot now.
NFL Week 6 Power Rankings Update
- Our New Ratings are out of Beta! About three and a half years ago, we began developing a new set of predictive ratings. These “New Ratings” improve upon the original ratings system that served as the foundation of this site way back in the early 2000’s — primarily by getting much better at making early season predictions, but in other ways too. This week, we began shifting the entire site to focus on these new ratings, and eventually, we’re going to phase the old ratings out altogether. You can read more information, if you’re curious, in the new ratings announcement we published this week.
- The see-saw at #1 tilts again. Both Seattle and Denver increased their ratings with wins this week, but Denver’s 21-point shellacking of Arizona, despite an 0-2 turnover margin, was more impressive. As a result, Denver now reigns supreme at the top of our predictive ratings, edging the #2 Seahawks by the slimmest of margins.
As long time TR users know, our “New Ratings” have been around a for a while, and aren’t exactly “new” at this point. In fact, they were announced three years ago today.
To celebrate their birthday, and because we’re now confident that they’re ready for prime time, we’re making a few changes.
1. We’re removing “(Beta)” from the end of their name.
It’s like moving from a learner’s permit to real driver’s license.
2. We’re now using them on team and matchup pages.
Our new default power rating for team pages and matchup pages is the Predictive Rating from our New Ratings suite, so you’ll now see “Predictive Rank” where you used to see our old “Overall Rank”.
Unlike our previous Overall rankings, the new Predictive Rating is designed to be the best predictor of future games, so it relies heavily on margin of victory, and virtually ignores a team’s win-loss record.
This is the fifth installment in David’s diary about playing one-day fantasy football for the first time. All other posts are listed in this blog section.
Last week, I read a couple Daily Fantasy strategy books written by Jonathan Bales, based on the recommendation of reader Tony:
- Fantasy Football (and Baseball) for Smart People: How to Turn Your Hobby into a Fortune
- Fantasy Football for Smart People: Daily Fantasy Pros Reveal Their Money-Making Secrets
Yes, the titles sound kind of self-helpish, but I found them very enlightening. Bales doesn’t make a bunch of generic, unsupported claims about daily fantasy strategies. He makes specific claims and backs them up with actual data.
Here’s a rapid-fire list of weekly highlights from the vast array of NFL content we publish on TeamRankings. We’ll also share some predictions and picks for Week 5 and beyond.
Our NFL Week 5 contest is open! Total prize pool $2,249. Claim your spot now.
NFL Week 5 Power Rankings Update
- It was a week of blowouts. Seven teams won by at least 20 points in Week 4, which makes for an exciting week in the rankings, since margins of victory are the primary drivers of our predictive ratings.
- New England sets a new low. New England’s 41-14 loss at Kansas City was a crusher, dropping the Pats from #5 to #8 and shaving nearly two points off their rating. However, to the surprise of those who think the Patriots are terrible this year, as of Thursday afternoon the Vegas point spread only favored #3 Cincinnati by one point in this week’s matchup at Foxboro. Our ratings project it as a nearly even game.
This post provides data on how our picks for season-long football pick’em pools, as provided by our Football Pick’em Pools product, did during the 2013 season.
For those unfamiliar, here’s a quick background:
- We’ve built proprietary analytics to figure out your best picking strategy for winning various types of NFL and college football “pick’em” style office pools (season prize pools, weekly prize pools, or both)
- Our data-driven approach is based on thousands of computer simulations of pools similar to yours, factoring in details like the size of your pool, its prize structure, and your current position in the standings
- We use publicly available national picking trends data to forecast how your opponents are likely to pick each game, and then we identify the picks that give you the best chance to beat them
If you haven’t done it yet, we invite you to go set up your pool to see how the product works.
This is the fourth installment in David’s diary about playing one-day fantasy football for the first time. All other posts are listed in this blog section.
FIRST PLACE BABY!
That’s right, I had my first first place finish! Too bad it was in a 50/50, so it was worth exactly the same as 50th place…
In Week 3 my intention was to apply a couple of the lessons I (thought I) learned in Week 2.
- On Sunday morning, look for backups being thrust into starting roles due to late injuries.
- Stop coming up with crazy “angles” and entering lineups based on those angles.
One of those two goals worked out well…
Here’s a rapid-fire list of weekly highlights from the vast array of NFL content we publish on TeamRankings. We’ll also share some predictions and picks for NFL Week 4 and beyond.
The prize pool for our Week 4 NFL contest is up to $2,249. Claim your spot now.
NFL Week 4 Power Rankings Update
- Seattle and Denver still tops. Unsurprisingly, after playing to a tie in regulation, Seattle and Denver still top our NFL rankings entering Week 4. Partly because the Seahawks ended up winning by six in OT, which was slightly above their expectation for this game, their rating crept up a little bit to 7.5, while Denver’s rating stayed flat at 6.9. So the system currently sees #1 Seattle as about half a point better than Denver on a neutral field.
- Cincinnati makes a jump. The biggest ratings story of the week is probably Cincinnati, who leapfrogged the Patriots and 49ers en route to a current #3 ranking. The Bengals’ margin of victory performance this year has been impressive (for reference, Cincy has covered the Vegas spread by at least six points in all three of their games), and the blowout of the Titans raised Cincinnati’s rating by 1.3 points. The Bengals still have a ways to go to catch Denver, though, and none of the their three wins has come against a team currently rated in our top 10. However, #5 New England looms in Week 5, after a bye this week.
97 competitors entered our Week 2 NFL contest on FanDuel last week, up from 73 in Week 1. It’s great to see the competition picking up steam. If this trend continues, we’ll be announcing new additional bonus prizes soon!
As usual, this week we’ll be giving away a free Football Season Pass to TeamRankings (a $249 value) to the winner of our contest, to accompany the $1,000 in cash prizes.
Props to monst4r for outscoring almost 100 other TR users in Week 2, including us. You can see all Week 2 results and season-to-date stats for our fantasy tourneys here.
How To Get An Invite
If you’re reading this post, you’re welcome to play in our weekly fantasy football tournaments. All you need to do is use the link below to sign up for FanDuel.
Just make sure the “Promo code” field says TEAMRANKINGS when you sign up:
This is the third installment in David’s diary about playing one-day fantasy football for the first time. All other posts are listed in this blog section.
After familiarizing myself with the FanDuel interface in Week 1, I entered a few more tournaments in Week 2. I basically used this week to explore a few free daily fantasy player projection sites, and entered some lineups based on those projections.
Projection Sites I Explored
Here are the sites I checked out this week, all of which were partly chosen because they have projections available that take into account the FanDuel scoring system and player salaries. This allowed me to quickly see which players each site considered the best value picks.
- RotoWire — I mentioned this site last week. I like the lineup optimizer they have. It allows for a lot of customization of what players are included/excluded, which makes it easy to quickly come up with alternate lineups designed around specific concepts (e.g. lock in 2 star RB’s then optimize around them, lock in a couple studs from a specific team, then optimize around them, etc.)
- FantasyPros — Their projections seem to be based on the consensus of multiple fantasy “experts.” Without diving deeper into historical accuracy, it seems like a “wisdom of the crowd” approach might be a good idea, rather than trusting a single source.
- numberFire — Nothing particularly noteworthy about their features, I just wanted some more variety in my projections/entries.
TeamRankings user monst4r crushed the competition in our Week 2 private tournament on FanDuel, setting a new high score record for our contests with 156.44 points!
(You can see all the final standings here.)
That score was more than 10 points better than second place finisher adondarski at 146.32, and it bested adamhasu‘s previous high score of 148.08 by more than 8 points.