Super Bowl Predictions 2013: Picks, Props And Key Stats For The Big Game
- 1 comments - NFL - posted by Matt Woods on January 30, 2013
After 256 regular season games and 10 playoff games, we’re down to just the 49ers and Ravens left fighting for the Lombardi trophy. With the Super Bowl almost here, we wanted to present a breakdown of all the Super Bowl predictions and prop bet advice we have available on the site. Some of this information is free and open to the public, but most is only available as part of our new premium packages.
Super Bowl Betting Picks
Including playoff games, both playable (2-star or better) NFL spread picks and playable NFL over/under picks are profitable for the season. Our playable totals picks have particularly excelled, going 56-33-4 (62.9%, +17.9 units) for the year so far. For the Super Bowl, as of Wednesday evening, our models see a spread of San Francisco -3.5 as relatively efficient, but the over/under is playable at 47. All of our 2013 Super Bowl betting picks are available to our All Star level subscribers.
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Free Super Bowl Prop Analysis: Which Team Will Score First?
- 4 comments - NFL - posted by Tom Federico on January 30, 2013
Over in our premium NFL forum, which is available to TeamRankings subscribers (sign up now), we’ve been posting daily, data-driven analysis of Super Bowl prop bets. We take care to do a deep, thorough analysis of each of the props we look into, and wanted to post one of our analyses on the blog to give all of our readers an example.
If you like what you see here, there are seven other props broken down in the NFL forum so far, with more coming. And if you’re a subscriber and you want us to look at a specific prop, just ask us in the forum! We love fielding questions.
Super Bowl Prop Analysis: Which Team Will Score First?
TR’s David Hess has rolled up his sleeves and jumped headlong into the data to explore this prop. The lines mean that San Francisco is the favorite to score first, but where is the value?
- San Francisco: -135 (5Dimes), -132 (Pinnacle), -130 (Bovada)
- Baltimore: +115 (5Dimes), +117 (Pinnacle), +100 (Bovada)
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NFL Playoff Time! A Menu Of Our Playoff Predictions & Coverage
- 2 comments - NFL - posted by Matt Woods on January 5, 2013
The NFL regular season has come to an end, 20 teams have been sent home and seven coaches have been fired. It’s now playoff time in the NFL, and as the Wild Card round kicks off, we wanted to break down all of the playoff related predictions and contest advice we have available on the site. Some of this information is free and open to all, but most is available as part of our new premium packages.
Algorithmic NFL Playoffs Betting Picks
Playable NFL spread picks (2-star or better) from our computer models are 68-56-4 (54.8%, +5.8 units) so far this season, and playable NFL totals picks are 54-31-4 (63.5%, +18.1 units). For the Wild Card round, as of Saturday morning, our models see three of the eight available spread and totals bets as playable. All of our 2012 NFL playoff betting picks including the Super Bowl are available to our All Star level subscribers.
- NFL Playoffs Point Spread Picks
- NFL Playoffs Over/Under Totals Picks
- NFL Playoffs Money Line Value Picks
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QB Performance Plots for Week 17: Manning Finishes In Style
- 2 comments - NFL - posted by Gregory Matthews on January 3, 2013
This is a guest post by Greg Matthews (Twitter: @StatsInTheWild), founder of Stats In The Wild, a blog focused on sports analytics and data visualization. If you’re interested in guest posting on TeamRankings, email us your post and we’ll consider it.
Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers both turned in 140+ passer rating performances to lead all quarterbacks in the final week of the NFL regular season. While Manning’s and Rivers’ passer ratings were similar in Week 17 (144.8 and 142.0, respectively), that’s about where the similarities stop between the two.
In Week 17 Manning led his team to a 38-3 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs by throwing for 304 yards on 23 of 29 passing, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. The win was the thirteenth of the season and eleventh in a row for the Broncos, who claimed the number one seed in the AFC for the playoffs.
Alternatively, the San Diego Chargers finished the season 7-9 after their Week 17 victory over the lowly Oakland Raiders. In that game, Rivers only threw the ball 17 times completing 13 of his attempts for 151 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. This kind of stat line leads to a good passer rating, but it doesn’t really stand out on the graph like Russell Wilson.
(Just click the graph below to enlarge it…)
Week 17 NFL Survivor Strategy: Use It Or Lose It
- 69 comments - NFL, NFL Survivor Pools - posted by David Hess on December 28, 2012
Welcome to the Week 17 installment of our NFL Survivor contest advice column. We apply a data-driven strategy to get an edge in Survivor pools, using analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models, public picking trends, future team schedules, and other data.
As the season progresses, Survivor pool elimination rates usually increase. People use up all the good teams at the beginning of the year, and their choices over the last few weeks become more difficult.
Week 16 bucked that trend, as over 98% of Yahoo! contestants survived. It was the second safest week of the season, behind Week 11. Our pick, the Denver Broncos, breezed past the Cleveland Browns by a 34-12 score.
We’re now entering the final week of the season. The decision-making process becomes much simpler this week, as there is no future value to consider. If you’ve got a big favorite available, it’s now or never.
Week 17 NFL Pick’em Strategy: One Last Shot At Glory?
- 14 comments - NFL, NFL Pick'ems - posted by Matt Woods on December 27, 2012
It’s the final week of the regular season, so you need to assess your position and act accordingly. If you’re not near the very top of your pool, you’re almost certainly not going to win it. If the contest awards weekly prizes, though, should try to maximize your odds of winning this week’s prize by rolling the dice with very aggressive, unpopular picks.
In smaller pools, if you’ve been using our Conservative game winner picks, you may be finding yourself around 5th place in a 100-person pool, or even better if you’re in a spread based pool. In that case, your pool’s prize structure is the most important factor at this point.
If you’re in position to win some money (or only 1-2 wins out of the money) and are happy with that, you should probably play it conservatively. In that case, you should look to pick teams that you think many of your close competitors will also pick, regardless of which team you think will win, in order to minimize opportunities for opponents to gain ground on you. Making a risky, unpopular pick isn’t a good way to defend a lead.
If you’re more than a few games behind the money positions then you need to take some risks. How much risk depends on how far out of the money you are, so feel free to ask questions about your specific situation in the comments and we’ll do our best to answer.
Where We Stand After Week 16
Here is where our game winner pick’em strategies currently stand on ESPN (not confidence points based) heading into Week 17. While the more aggressive strategies basically held their positions, our Conservative strategy dropped slightly, yet still continues to rank in the top 5% nationally on ESPN:
- Conservative: 95th percentile (-1.4 from last week)
- Aggressive: 87th percentile (+0.2)
- Very Aggressive: 81.5th percentile (-0.2)
Week 16 NFL Survivor Friday Update: Much Ado About Nothing
- 26 comments - NFL, NFL Survivor Pools - posted by David Hess on December 21, 2012
Well, it’s December 21st, and there have been no signs of an alpacalypse (though it may feel differently if your $200K Survivor prize pool was just seized by the feds). That means you still need to make a Survivor pick this week.
There have been quite a few shifts in the money lines and win odds since Wednesday. If, like us, you’ve still got one last trump card that you’re using this week, then those changes probably won’t make a big difference to you.
On the other hand, if you’re dipping into the Tier 2 pot, you’ll probably want to pay close attention.
QB Performance Plots for Week 15: Sanchez Finally Loses It
- 0 comments - NFL - posted by Gregory Matthews on December 20, 2012
This is a guest post by Greg Matthews (Twitter: @StatsInTheWild), founder of Stats In The Wild, a blog focused on sports analytics and data visualization. If you’re interested in guest posting on TeamRankings, email us your post and we’ll consider it.
In Week 15 Matt Ryan and Drew Brees both led their teams to blowout, shutout victories with passer ratings of 142.6 and 124.6, respectively. Ryan completed 23 of 28 passes for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns, whereas Brees went 26 for 39 for 307 yards and four touchdowns and neither quarterback through an interception.
Ryan Tannehill also had a standout performance completing about 76% of his 28 passing attempts for 220 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 52 yards rushing on eight attempts and, most importantly, no interceptions.
So maybe Miami actually has a quarterback … or maybe it’s because they were playing the Jaguars. Either way Tannehill had a good week leading his team to a 24-3 victory.
(Just click the graphic below to enlarge it…)
Week 16 NFL Pick’em Strategy: Ride the Cowboys
- 9 comments - NFL, NFL Pick'ems - posted by Matt Woods on December 19, 2012
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has truly struggled this season, allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Only Tampa Bay was allowed more. Dallas, meanwhile, ranks 2nd in the NFL in pass attempts per game (41.3) and 11th in yards per pass attempt (7.1).
Dez Bryant has been the Cowboys top target with 10 touchdowns and over 1000 receiving yards. While Bryant does have a hand injury that will require surgery, he hauled in four catches for 59 yards and a touchdown playing through the pain last week.
This appears like an excellent matchup for the Dallas offense, and our models see the Cowboys as narrow favorites to win. Vegas, similarly, has made Dallas 1-point favorites. With only 40% of the public backing the Cowboys, taking Dallas in game winner pools provides a solid chance to gain ground on the public without picking a risky upset.
Where We Stand After Week 15
Here is where our game winner pick’em strategies currently stand on ESPN (not confidence points based) heading into Week 16. While the more aggressive strategies took slight hits in the standings, our Conservative strategy rose for the third week in a row. The Conservative pick set now ranks in the top 4% nationally on ESPN:
- Conservative: 96.4th percentile (+0.6 from last week)
- Aggressive: 86.8th percentile (-1.3)
- Very Aggressive: 81.7th percentile (-4.8)
Week 16 NFL Survivor Strategy: Back In The Saddle
- 45 comments - NFL, NFL Survivor Pools - posted by David Hess on December 19, 2012
Welcome to the Week 16 installment of our NFL Survivor contest advice column. We apply a data-driven strategy to get an edge in Survivor pools, using analysis based on NFL predictions from our algorithmic Team Rankings models, public picking trends, future team schedules, and other data. This article presents our preliminary Survivor pick of the week; we publish our final, official pick on Fridays.
While the Miami Dolphins’ victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 advanced over half of Survivor contests on to Week 16, the next most popular team, the Detroit Lions, couldn’t manage a win in Arizona. Their loss knocked out around one fifth of the public.
Our pick, the New Orleans Saints, laid a 41-0 whipping on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That ends our two-week losing streak and gets us back in black for the close of the regular season.
This week’s choice is probably obvious to those of you who have been following the blog all season, but let’s review the data before we make it official.
