This post is the first in a four-part series on key strategies for winning bracket contests.
More than anything else, the number of brackets you’re competing against in your 2013 NCAA bracket contest should dictate your strategy for making picks.
Changing your mindset to make picks based on pool size is very difficult, and can be a challenge to implement in practice. However, if there is one factor that’s given us a huge edge in bracket pools over the years via our BracketBrains technology, it’s this one.
So what do we mean exactly?
All season long, we have used our models to develop detailed NCAA Bracketology predictions. But these models do more than just project likely tournament seeds; they also are capable of predicting NCAA tournament outcomes. You can find round by round tournament survival odds for all Division 1 teams, updated daily, on our NCAA bracket predictions 2013 page.
While these predictions are useful for identifying likely tournament winners, they also help us to look for NCAA sleepers in 2013. This post looks at three Final Four sleeper teams — teams that all have higher odds than most people think of making the Final Four, despite being most likely to receive a five seed or lower in the 2013 NCAA tournament.
Each team in college basketball plays two or three times per week, meaning that there are many chances for schools to help or hurt their chances of making the 2013 NCAA tournament. Every day, our algorithmic NCAA bracketology models generate updated projections of the odds of each team making the Big Dance.
Our 2013 bracketology trends pages allow us to track teams as their tournament odds rise and fall. Since last week, these three teams have improved their NCAA bid odds by the largest amount:
This time of the year, chatter about bubble teams — the teams that may or may not make the 2013 NCAA tournament — dominates the airwaves and blogosphere. Using our algorithmic NCAA tournament bracketology predictions, we can apply our methods to explore the potential paths of various bubble teams, and assess their odds of making the NCAAs.
This post looks at three current bubble teams, their chances for making the tournament, and what it will take for them to get there.
Our mathematical models do more than just predict the likely NCAA tournament seeding, as you will find at our 2013 Bracketology page. They can also be used to forecast how the NCAA tournament will play out. This post looks at the three most likely NCAA champions according to our NCAA bracket predictions.
The Big East looks poised once again to land seven or eight teams in the NCAA tournament bracket. Our Big East bracketology breakdown predicts that six teams from the conference appear to be locks for the 2013 NCAA tournament, with Georgetown, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame playing mostly for seeding, while Villanova and Cincinnati still sit on the bubble.
This post looks at two teams with an outside shot at a one seed, and the two Big East bubble teams, using our models to forecast the remainder of the season and and the conference tournament.
Every week of the season teams lose, harming their chances of making the 2013 NCAA tournament bracket. Every day, our algorithmic NCAA tournament bracketology models generate updated projections of the odds of each team making the Big Dance, enabling us to track teams as their chances rise and fall.
So which five teams most hurt their chances of making the 2013 NCAA tournament over the past seven days? Our bracketology trends pages reveal the answer:
1. Baylor (-38% NCAA Bid Odds Since Last Week)
Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: On The Bubble (58% chance)
Today: In Trouble (20% chance)
With each passing week of the season, many teams’ chances of making the 2013 NCAA tournament bracket rise and fall — dramatically, in some cases. Every day, our algorithmic NCAA tournament bracketology models generate updated projections of the odds of each team making the Big Dance.
So which five teams most improved their chances of making the 2013 NCAA tournament over the past seven days? Our bracketology trends pages reveal the answer:
1. California (+36% NCAA Bid Odds Since Last Week)
Odds To Make The 2013 NCAA Bracket
Last week: On The Bubble (54% chance)
Today: Near-Lock (90% chance)
This week we launched a site update to enhance our NCAA Tournament 2013 section. A few weeks ago we introduced improved 2013 bracketology pages, and we’re now rolling out additional analytics to explore how we predict teams to do once the NCAA tournament begins. Remember that all of this new bracket predictions info updates daily, so check back frequently to see what’s changed.
(For more background on our approach to projecting the 2013 NCAA bracket, and why our approach is different and better than that of human bracketologists, you can see our post from November introducing our new NCAA bracket predictions.)
As of February 15th, 2013, Indiana and Florida lead the nation in average scoring margin with +21.7 and +21.3, respectively. The next closest team is Pittsburgh with +16.6. To put those numbers in perspective, the last team to have a higher average scoring margin at this point of the season was 2001 Duke (+22.6).
Below is the list of teams since 2000 that have had an average scoring margin better than +20 on February 15th of a given season. Just missing the cut were 2012 Kentucky (+19.9) and 2009 North Carolina (+19.8) – both national champions.