It’s been a strange season for a major conference when the 3-seed in the conference tournament has no legitimate at-large NCAA bid hopes. That’s the case in the SEC, where it appears that Georgia must win the conference tournament to make the NCAA bracket. Florida and Kentucky will almost certainly be representing the SEC in the NCAA tourney, but there are only three other SEC teams with good enough resumes to be called bubble teams.
The SEC conference tournament bracket will feature must-win quarterfinal games for Tennessee, Arkansas and Missouri. Our bracketology algorithm is currently projecting, on average, 2.9 NCAA tournament bids for the SEC. Three bids is more likely than two, but two bids wouldn’t be a total shocker either.
The first year of the new and improved ACC hasn’t gone exactly as hoped by the conference brass. The 15-team conference currently has just six teams with NCAA tournament hopes heading into the ACC tournament. Unsurprisingly, the top four seeds (Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, and UNC) are all virtual locks to make the field.
Our 2014 ACC bracket and predictions have the probability of one of the top four seeds winning the tournament at 85%. Bubble teams Pittsburgh and Florida State don’t have to win the entire tournament to get into the 2014 NCAA bracket, but a strong performance would really help their odds.
Seven Pac-12 teams enter the conference tournament with legitimate NCAA aspirations. Arizona and UCLA, the top two seeds, are virtual locks to make the field of 68. However, the next best NCAA bracket resume likely belongs to the 7-seed, Oregon. That makes for some extremely important quartefinal matchups in the Pac-12 tournament bracket.
The potential 3 vs. 6 (Arizona St-Stanford) and 4 vs. 5 (California-Colorado) games feature four teams all with different levels of NCAA tournament uncertainty.
Last week, we looked at the Big 12′s NCAA tournament outlook. Our bracketology algorithm then was projecting 6.2 bids for the conference. At the time, the two teams on the bubble were Baylor and Oklahoma State.
Since then, the conference’s outlook has improved in terms of potential tournament bids. Our bracketology projections now have the Big 12 getting on average 6.5 tournament bids, largely due to Baylor’s recent wins over Iowa State and Kansas State. Even with the Big 12 tournament this week, we already know a lot more about the Big 12 than most conferences.
The number of Big East teams expected in the NCAA tournament has fluctuated all year. The league has had a realistic chance at getting anywhere from two bids to five bids, depending on who you read. While Villanova and Creighton have been the class of the league all season, four more bubble teams have emerged. Xavier, Providence, St. John’s, and Georgetown have a lot at stake in the upcoming Big East tournament bracket.
Our 2014 bracketology currently lists Villanova and Creighton (obviously) as well as Xavier as Big East teams who are odds-on favorites to make the NCAA tournament field. However, our projections also deem it likely that the Big East gets more than three teams in overall; our bids by conference predictions indicates the Big East on average receiving 3.9 bids. What’s the reason for this discrepancy?
The answer is due to the nature of conference tourneys. Four teams will naturally win games to get to the Big East tournament semifinals; the whole conference can’t lose. In other words, at least one or two of the bubble teams outside of Xavier are going to help their resume and increase their tournament bid odds — we just don’t yet know which ones.
Arkansas’ current six-game winning streak has significantly helped increase their NCAA tournament hopes. Three weeks ago, our bracketology projections gave Arkansas just a 14.5% chance of making the bracket. Now we have the Razorbacks at a 41.1% chance of joining the field of 68. That 26.7% gain is the ninth highest for all teams over that time period in our 2014 bracketology trends.
Still, our bracketology projections are actually conservative for Arkansas relative to the bracketology consensus. Most everyone else has the Razorbacks currently in the field. However, what makes this story quite interesting is the large disparity in the Razorbacks’ home vs. away play.
Arkansas’ NCAA Tournament Resume
As previously mentioned, Arkansas has one of the best home-court advantages in the country. This season, our New Rankings have Arkansas ranked 12th in the country when playing at home. Even with the road win at Rupp Arena, our New Rankings have Arkansas just 80th in the country when playing on the road. This is the norm for Arkansas in Mike Anderson’s three years with the team. It seems like Anderson’s aware of the trend too. Arkansas didn’t play a single true road game in non-conference play this year.
As we all know, March Madness is right around the corner. But while your future bracket pool opponents were out sipping hot toddies and making snow angels this winter, guess what we were doing here at TeamRankings?
Geeking out over bracket picks, as usual.
Today, we’re excited to announce the 2014 edition of BracketBrains, the secret weapon used by thousands of successful bracket pool players. BracketBrains provides data-driven NCAA bracket picks, analysis, and tools that give you the best chance to win your bracket contest.
We are now fully in the midst of mid major conference tournament season. The first championship game takes place tomorrow in the Ohio Valley, with more coming the rest of the week. Most of these tournaments are 1-bid leagues, meaning that the only team representing the conference in the NCAA tournament will be the one that receives that automatic bid for winning the 2014 conference tournament.
Starting today and tomorrow, though, a few teams with actual at large hopes will begin their conference tourney runs. The Missouri Valley conference bracket includes one of those teams, Wichita State, who is a lock to make the NCAA bracket. Consequently, the MVC is a 1-bid league if Wichita State wins the conference tourney and a 2-bid league if not.
This leaves an opportunity for a potential “bid thief,” a team that makes the bubble even smaller for teams looking for an at-large NCAA bid, by unexpectedly winning a conference tournament.
Here’s a look at the three most realistic bid thieves set to play either today or tomorrow:
Here’s a look at how last night’s games impacted our 2014 bracket predictions:
Saint Louis drops third straight; NCAA tournament run gets less likely
After losing just two of their first 27 games, Saint Louis has now lost three in a row. Even more surprising, two of those games have been at home. Saint Louis is now ranked just 40th in our New Predictive Ratings, which power our bracketology simulations. This recent stretch of losses not only hurts Saint Louis’ seeding, but also raises significant questions for how SLU will perform in the NCAA tournament.
Just last week, Saint Louis had a 29.5% chance of making the Sweet 16 according to our algorithms. Now the combination of seeding and poor play have decreased Saint Louis’ chances of a Sweet 16 run to just 20.3%.
Here’s a look ahead at two games tonight bound to impact the 2014 NCAA bracket prediction landscape:
St. Joseph’s vs. George Washington: Improbable roads to the NCAA tournament
According to our 2014 NCAA bracketology trends, no one has done more for their tournament hopes over the last three weeks than St. Joe’s. Over that time period, the Hawks have gone undefeated with wins against VCU and Dayton. St. Joe’s now has a 91% chance of dancing heading into tonight’s game at George Washington.
George Washington is another Atlantic-10 school likely to hear their name called on Selection Sunday; specifically, our NCAA bracket projections currently have their tournament bid odds at 72%. However, GW has had a much different road to the postseason than St. Joe’s. The Colonials were an early season surprise, getting off to an 11-1 start including a neutral court win versus Creighton.