Mountain West Bracket Predictions & Preview
2013 Mountain West tournament site & location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
2013 Mountain West tournament dates: March 12th-16th, 2013
All season long, the Mountain West has been among the most competitive and entertaining leagues in college hoops. The Mountain West tournament promises more of the same, as four teams all have realistic shots of winning the title. Interestingly, while New Mexico and Colorado have the best in-conference win/loss records, our models favor UNLV to top the field, with a 39 percent chance of winning the MWC tournament. Dave Rice’s young and talented Rebels are led by Anthony Bennett, an inside-outside scorer who is perhaps the best freshman in the country.
MAC Bracket Predictions & Tournament Preview
2013 MAC tournament sites: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH & Campus Sites
2013 MAC tournament dates: March 11th-16th, 2013
Based on our predictive models, the Ohio Bobcats are slight favorites to win the MAC, essentially neck and neck with the Akron Zips. Led by center Zeke Marshall, one of the best rim defenders in the nation, the Zips only allow opponents to shoot 42 percent from two point range, and had Ohio’s number in their two regular season match-ups. But Akron was dealt a major blow this week when starting point guard Alex Abreu was arrested and suspended from the team. This helps Ohio’s chances considerably, although it should be noted that our models aren’t explicitly adjusting for the suspension.
Summit Bracket Predictions & Preview
2013 Summit tournament site & location: Sioux Falls Arena, Sioux Falls, SD
2013 Summit tournament dates: March 9th-12th, 2013
Our models see the Summit League conference tournament as a two team race between North Dakota State and South Dakota State. Led by their superstar guard Nate Wolters, South Dakota State has been the better team this season by win-loss record and holds the tournament’s top seed, but our models give the slight edge to their neighbors to the north. The two teams spit their regular season contests, making this league up for grabs. Fans who want to see more of Nate Wolters better watch, because there is a decent chance that he and the Jackrabbits won’t be playing in the NCAA tournament.
America East Bracket Predictions & Preview
2013 America East tournament site & location: SEFCU Arena, Guilderland, NY & Campus Sites
2013 America East tournament dates: March 9th-16th, 2013
The America East championship looks like a three-horse race, with Stony Brook in the pole position but Vermont and Albany both having a shot to win. Steve Pikiell’s Sea Wolves separated themselves from the rest of the conference this season with a 14-2 record, but the America East conference tournament doesn’t have a format that gives a huge advantage to the conference favorites, as some other one big leagues do. Despite leading the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency, the Sea Wolves only have a 51 percent chance of claiming the conference title.
All season long, we have used our models to develop detailed NCAA Bracketology predictions. But these models do more than just project likely tournament seeds; they also are capable of predicting NCAA tournament outcomes. You can find round by round tournament survival odds for all Division 1 teams, updated daily, on our NCAA bracket predictions 2013 page.
While these predictions are useful for identifying likely tournament winners, they also help us to look for NCAA sleepers in 2013. This post looks at three Final Four sleeper teams — teams that all have higher odds than most people think of making the Final Four, despite being most likely to receive a five seed or lower in the 2013 NCAA tournament.
Sun Belt Tournament Bracket Predictions & Preview
2013 Sun Belt tournament site: Summit Arena & Convention Center Court, Hot Springs, AR
2013 Sun Belt tournament dates: March 8th-11th, 2013
Middle Tennessee State has been the class of the Sun Belt all season long. With only one conference loss this year, in overtime at Arkansas State back in the first week in January, the Blue Raiders come into the Sun Belt Conference tournament on a 16 game winning streak. Coach Kermit Davis Jr. and his team have run roughshod over the competition, leading the Sun Belt in both offensive and defensive efficiency by a substantial margin. Because they have so throughly dominated the league, our predictions give them a 73 percent chance of winning the conference tournament.
Southern Bracket Predictions & Preview
2013 Southern tournament site & location: U.S. Cellular Center, Asheville, NC
2013 Southern tournament dates: March 8th-11th, 2013
Davidson is the heavy favorite to win the Southern Conference, with a 67 percent chance of taking the title. Bob McKillop’s Wildcats have the league’s most efficient offense and defense, and are led by talented big men Jake Cohen and De’Mon Brooks, along with senior guard Nik Cochran. Their size advantage inside gives them the conference’s best interior defense, and provides an edge on the defensive glass. Davidson beat up on the rest of the Southern this season, going 17-1 in conference play.
MAAC Bracket Predictions & Preview
2013 MAAC tournament site: MassMutual Center, Springfield, MA
2013 MAAC tournament dates: March 8th-11th, 2013
The MAAC tournament has no real favorite. The top of the half of league was balanced this season, showing just how much parity there is in the MAAC. Iona has the best chance of winning, with our models giving the Gaels a 28 percent chance, while Loyola, Niagara, Canisius, Fairfield, Rider, and Manhattan all look to be in the running.
MVC Bracket Predictions & Preview:
2013 MVC tournament site: Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO
2013 MVC tournament dates: March 7th-10th, 2013
While Creighton and Wichita State have led the way for the MVC this season, several other teams have reasonable chances of stealing the league title. Our MVC bracket predictions give the Bluejays a 49 percent chance of taking the league’s automatic bid, while the Shockers look to have a 26 percent chance of winning it all this weekend in Saint Louis. That leaves about a 25 percent shot for the field, meaning the door is still open for Illinois State and Northern Iowa, while Evansville and Indiana State also have somewhat more remote chances of going on a run and stealing the league’s automatic bid.
WCC Bracket Predictions & Preview
2013 WCC tournament dates: March 12th-16th, 2013
2013 WCC tournament site & location: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
All season long, the WCC has been dominated by one team, the Gonzaga Bulldogs. That dominance looks likely to continue in the conference tournament. Our WCC bracket predictions give the Zags a 69 percent chance of winning the conference tournament. Mark Few’s team has the top offense and top defense in the conference, scoring 1.19 points per possession, and allowing 0.91 points per trip this season.