Researching and improving our prediction models is an ongoing process, and one to which we devote significant time. The past year has been particularly active, though, as we’ve been rolling out significant pick logic updates to all of our sports. These updates are primarily designed to eliminate a long-standing source of user confusion, conflicting picks, but they should also help to improve our long term pick accuracy.
MLB is the latest (and final) sport to join the club. So, what’s new?
The 2013 MLB season starts in only two days, as the Rangers and Texans kick things off with a Lone Star State Showdown. With opening day fast approaching, it’s time to release our preseason ratings and projections.
The main purpose of these ratings is to provide a data-driven starting point for our MLB projected standings. Just like last season, we’ll have fully automated win-loss predictions, playoff chances, and World Series win odds, and all the info will be updated every single day of the season to reflect the latest results and the most up to date MLB power ratings.
The All-Star Break presents us with a great opportunity to review how well our MLB projections have done so far this year. Unlike our highly profitable 2011 NFL projections and 2011 College Football projections, our 2012 MLB projections are just doing … fine. They’re basically right at par compared to the Vegas lines, which is about what we expected — and one of the main reasons we didn’t hype them at all heading into the season.
Mailbag time! We’ve received several questions recently about how often MLB teams win in certain situations, so we thought it would be useful to compile them all here in one place. Enjoy, and please feel free to ask any questions you might have in the comment section!
There have been a lot of questions in the comment section of our post on which MLB teams are best at avoiding being swept, and some of those can only be answered by posting more data. Rather than having this data buried in a comment where most people will miss it, we thought it would be better to publish a new blog post, and spread the word to more people.
So, without further ado, some more data on MLB series performance, this time broken down by team.
We received an interesting question via email from Brian:
Would you have stats on an how often an MLB home team, in a 3 game series, after losing the first game loses the following 2 games (or how often do they win one of the next 2?). Hopefully you can pull that up on your database for a few of the last seasons. Thanks!
Yep, of course we can!
Last week we added a feature that’s been on our to-do list for a long time: box scores for all the sports we cover. It’s nothing groundbreaking, but it’s a small step toward exposing as much information as possible.
For the most part, these box scores should look similar to those you see on other major sport sites or in your daily newspaper. (Those still exist, right?) All the basics are there. However, we have added a few pieces of valuable info to each sport’s box score that you won’t be able to get from your typical ESPN report.
The Major League Baseball regular season officially started in Tokyo on March 28th, but in most fans’ eyes, the true opening day is Thursday, April 5th. The last spring training games wrap up this evening, and the Cardinals visit the Marlins tonight in a game that counts, then half of the league gets in on the action tomorrow afternoon.
As the season gets underway, it’s time to release our preseason ratings and projections.
The main purpose of these ratings is to provide a data-driven starting point for our MLB projected standings, which we rolled out yesterday afternoon. We’ll have fully automated win-loss predictions, playoff chances, and World Series win odds, and all the info will be updated every single day of the season to reflect the latest results and the most up to date MLB power ratings.
When Atlantis Casino became the first sportsbook to release its Major League Baseball regular season win totals on Wednesday, there was one over/under in particular that stood out.
Atlantis opened the Houston Astros at 62.5, the lowest total in recent memory. Of the other 29 teams, none had a total lower than 70.5 — a number shared by both the Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres.
Since 2007, no team has had an over/under lower than this year’s Astros. The Pittsburgh Pirates (2011) and Washington Nationals (2010) came the closest, opening at 65.5 each. Both, however, went well over their win total and finished with 72 and 69 wins, respectively.
The Astros, quite obviously, deserve to have the lowest win total after they were hands-down the worst team in 2011, finishing 56-106. Even the Seattle Mariners, who lost 17 straight games at one point, finished with 11 more wins than Houston.
But in a market that’s more than likely going to take more action on overs, it’s still a bit surprising to see a total listed as low as 62.5. The question, then, is this: Is there any value on the over?
The Angels Signed Albert Pujols To A 10-Year $250 Million Contract. The Move Might Not Be As Foolish As You Think.
When I read that the LA Angels were signing Albert Pujols to a contract worth at least $250 million over 10 years my mind immediately flashed to Roberto Luongo and his much-maligned 12-year contract with the Vancouver Canucks. That’s not really a fair comparison, though, as Pujols has been an elite hitter for years, and has already established himself as one of the best hitters to ever play the game.
So, what is a fair comparison? For that, we can turn to the player similarity scores published on Baseball Reference. Here are the most similar players to Pujols, through age 31: Jimmie Foxx, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott, Juan Gonzalez, Willie Mays, and Manny Ramirez.