NFL Week 16 Predictions, Rankings, and Tips: The Weekly Rundown

With just two weeks left in the NFL season, the playoff races are coming down to the wire. Here’s a quick-hit list of weekly highlights from the vast array of NFL content we publish on TeamRankings. We’ll also share some predictions and picks for Week 16 and beyond.


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Power Rankings Update

Current NFL rankings

  • Pats widen lead on #1 spot. After New England’s dominant 28-point home win over the previously 11th-ranked Dolphins, the Patriots are now rated as almost a full point better than #2 Denver on a neutral field.
  • Green Bay’s ranking stands pat despite loss. Because of the huge lead the top four teams had on the rest of the league heading into last weekend, #4 Green Bay retained its ranking despite its 21-13 loss to the Bills, but the gap between the Packers and #5 Indianapolis narrowed a bit.

  • A bit more separation for the Big Three. The elite teams in the NFL now look more like a triad, with New England, Denver, and #3 Seattle all rated within 1.5 points of one another. Green Bay is on a bit of an island at #4, trailing Seattle by a significant 1.5 points, but also nearly two full points ahead of Indianapolis.
  • Top 10 remains mostly constant. Indianapolis and #6 Baltimore were the only teams in the top 10 whose ranking actually changed this past week. Indy barely edged ahead of the Ravens after Baltimore’s narrower-than-expected margin of victory against lowly Jacksonville, while the Colts generally performed as expected against Houston. After Baltimore, there’s a big pack of teams rated as “good but not outstanding.” #7 Philadelphia leads that pack, along with #8 Arizona, #9 San Francisco, and #10 Kansas City.
  • Cincy surging late. The Bengals jumped six spots after a dominant 30-0 victory over Johnny Manziel and the Browns Sunday. Cincinnati’s current #11 ranking is the highest they’ve been since they were #9 after Week 6.
  • Cowboys squeak into NFL’s top half, still trail Eagles by significant margin. After a 38-27 road win over Philly, the Cowboys leapt ahead of the Eagles in the NFC East standings and rose two spots in our rankings to #16. However, our Predictive ratings still see Dallas (10-4) as 1.2 points worse than the #7 Eagles (9-5) on a neutral field. A contributing factor here is schedule strength, in which the Cowboys rank a lowly #27 on the year, while Philly ranks a more respectable #15.

Season Projections Update

Current NFL season projections

  • Still 3 clear top dogs for 2015 Super Bowl Champion, but one change. According to our latest simulations, New England (28%), Denver (21%), and Seattle (16%) form a clear leading triumvirate in terms of current Super Bowl win odds. Seattle has recently replaced Green Bay among this trio, after the Packers lost to the Bills and only narrowly beat the Falcons at home in recent weeks. The Packers now sit at #4 in Super Bowl win odds at 11.1%.
  • Seattle posts big gains in past two weeks. Seattle’s odds of winning the NFC West and avoiding a Wild Card game have jumped significantly in the last two weeks, and we now have them as basically a coin flip (at 51%) to wrestle the division title away from Arizona. That will all be decided in a head-to-head showdown this week on Sunday Night Football. The Seahawks are currently favored by more than a touchdown in that game, and a win would nearly clinch the division for Seattle. A loss would hand the division to the Cardinals.
  • Odds of “the field” winning Super Bowl shrinking. As of two weeks ago, there was a roughly 30% chance a team other than New England, Denver, Green Bay, or Seattle would win the 2015 Super Bowl, according to our simulations. Those odds have narrowed to only a 26% chance for the rest of the pack, mostly as a result of the still-surging Patriots, which now have a strong lead as the championship favorite. Because of the potential to avoid a Wild Card game, Arizona (6% to win it all) has the best odds to win it all out of the also-rans.
  • AFC divisions mostly clinched. The Colts, Broncos, and Patriots all officially clinched their respective divisions this week. The only intrigue remains in the hotly contested AFC North, where the Bengals, despite their current lead, still only have a 39% chance winning the division.
  • NFC division winner projections. The NFC division races are much more up for grabs, and the team with the strongest odds of winning its division is surprisingly the Cowboys, which had only a slim 13% chance just two weeks ago. Dallas now has a 67% chance to win the NFC East (a head-to-head upset victory over the former division leader goes a long way). The Packers (62%), Saints (62%), and Seahawks (51%) are the other division winner favorites. Interestingly, the Saints are the only team among that trio actually leading its division in the standings right now, but all three have critical games remaining against lower-rated divisional competition.
  • Slim (or no) hope for the playoffs. After crushing losses this weekend, AFC wild card hopefuls San Diego (13%) and Houston (6%) are now long shots to make the playoffs, and Miami (0%) won’t be playing in January.

Pick’em Pools Update

Week 16 NFL pick’em pool picks

  • Past advice. Two weeks ago, we advised picking underrated and unpopular Tennessee over the New York Giants to people who needed to make up some ground in their pools, while Washington over St. Louis projected as a very attractive upset pick from a risk/reward standpoint. Both teams got crushed. Ouch!
  • End game pick’em strategy. We’re officially into what we consider the “end game” for pick’em pools: the last two weeks of the season. That means if you want to maximize your odds to win your pool, your picks from now on should be influenced by factors like your current standing. For example, if you’re sitting significantly “out of the money” right now, picking all favorites to win is probably a bad strategy. With time running out, your best chance to catch up to the leaders is to make riskier picks, and hope you get them right, while the majority of your pool’s leaders don’t.
  • This week’s pick advice. In Week 16, the public is generally siding with Vegas and our models in almost every game, so there aren’t really any pound-the-table value picks. However, almost all pool players should pick Dallas over Indy, and not be tempted to pick a Colts upset of the Cowboys. We currently have the Cowboys, who are three point favorites in Vegas, at a 60% chance of victory, while the public is picking them at a 52% clip. That’s not a ton of value, but the point is that there are much better upset picks on the board than the Colts (i.e., picks with similar risk profiles that are much less popular).
  • Strategy for weekly prize pools. Pools that only offer weekly prizes call for a different strategy, one that needs to give much more weight to how your opponents are likely to pick this week. For a relatively high risk, high reward pick, a compelling option this week is Cincinnati over Denver. Both our models and Vegas give the Bengals at least a 40% chance to win, while the public is only picking Cincinnati 12% of the time. Cincy would also be a good pick if you’ve fallen behind the leaders in a season prize pool.
  • Strategy for YOUR pool. Just remember, the optimal strategy for your specific pool, including how many favorites vs. upsets you should pick this week, depends on a lot of factors: the number of entries in your pool, the rules, the scoring system, the payout structure. That’s why we developed our Football Pick’em Pools product to apply our analytics to your specific pool.

Survivor Pools Update

Week 16 NFL survivor pool picks

  • Not many eliminations last week. There were very few Survivor eliminations this past week, as the most popular team to lose was Green Bay, which constituted only 2% of all Survivor picks. In total only 3-4% of still-surviving entries were eliminated.
  • Chiefs end up as top rated pick. By the time Sunday rolled around, the Chiefs ended up being our top-rated pick for maximizing your expected profit from Survivor pools, and KC won 31-13 over Oakland.
  • Road teams galore this week. The top six teams this week in terms of expected win percentage are all on the road, and thus this could potentially be a week ripe for eliminations. Also be aware that if your pool is still going at this point in the season, there is a strong chance there will still be people alive after Week 17, and some pools extend into the playoffs. Be sure to check your rules.
  • Don’t pick these teams in Week 16. Buffalo and Miami are currently the two most popular Survivor picks of the week, but it’s hard to justify picking either of those teams in many cases. No fewer than eight other teams this week rate as better picks to maximize the odds to win your pool, as long as it goes by traditional Survivor rules (pick one team each week, no playoffs), and you have one of those teams available.

Game Predictions & Betting Picks Update

Week 16 NFL game winner picks | Spread picks | Most likely upsets

  • The public outpicked us in Week 15. Our closing game winner picks went 12-4 last week while the public (i.e. the user consensus picks from ESPN’s pick’em game) went 13-3. We picked the Jets over the Titans, which the public got wrong, but the public picked Cincinnati over Cleveland and Arizona (a 5.5 point underdog in Vegas!) over St. Louis, both of which we got wrong.
  • Game winner picks behind the public on the season. As of now, our game winner picks are 147-76-1 on the season, which lags the ESPN user consensus by eight wins. At this point, it’s all but certain that the public will out-pick our models (and Vegas) this year in terms of forecasting game winners, which is not something that happens often.
  • Overall positive week for playable betting picks. Our playable point spread picks against Sunday lines went 3-3 last week, with all spread picks going 8-7-1. Playable totals picks against Sunday lines went 3-3, while money line value picks went 2-3. Both of those wins—which included our only two-star pick—were underdogs, though, so the 2-3 record was almost breakeven for the week.
  • Season performance update. That performance means that our playable rated NFL spread picks against Sunday lines are now 59-50 for the season, while playable over/under picks are 45-47. Our highest rated (2- and 3-star) money line picks have performed well in recent weeks, but are still -2.5 units for the season based on a flat-betting strategy; all money line picks are currently -10.5 units on the year.
  • Top confidence Week 16 picks. The top confidence game winner picks from our models are currently New England over the New York Jets (83%), Seattle over Arizona (80%), and Green Bay over Tampa Bay (79%).
  • Most likely Week 16 upsets. The most likely upset of the week according to our models is currently San Diego over San Francisco (a 1-point favorite at publication time), with a 49% chance of happening. The most likely upset of a Vegas favorite of more than three points is currently Tennessee over Jacksonville, with a 36% chance of happening.

Weekly NFL Contest Update

Enter our Week 16 NFL contest | Current leaderboards

  • rxgambler takes the gold in Week 13. User rxgambler won our newly expanded 272-entry NFL contest on FanDuel this past week, with a score of 168.78. Fine work, rxgambler, and that’s good for a TeamRankings Season Pass ($249) in addition to your FanDuel winnings.
  • 55% of entries won cash! Because of our guaranteed prize pool, 150 of the 272 of the entries in our weekly contest doubled their entry fees last week. It included us again, as our teamrankings entry ended up in 62nd place.
  • Come play with us! We want you to get in on the Week 16 action with us. We’ve expanded the contest again, and no fewer than 300 entries will win cash this week. Plus, this is your chance to beat the TR Nerds head to head! Claim your spot now in our weekly tournament.