College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings For 2014-15

In the wee hours Wednesday morning, we finished crunching the numbers, and loaded our official preseason team ratings for the 2014-2015 college basketball season into our database. These are the ratings that drive our preseason projections, and serve as the Bayesian priors for our predictive ratings as the season progresses.

(Translation: our preseason ratings still impact our team ratings even months into the season, because that has shown to be more predictive than not.)

Below you’ll find a preseason top 25 comparison between TeamRankings, Ken Pomeroy, the AP poll, and more. We’ve also posted the full rankings and ratings for all 351 Division I teams.


Using these ratings, we’ve run full season projections, which are live on the site now. Go check’em out! Pages include:

This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every day throughout the season.

Ratings Method & Accuracy

The basic idea is that we establish a baseline prediction for a team, given their power ratings from recent years, and assuming an average amount of roster turnover. Then we make some adjustments based on how much value each team is returning on offense and defense, as well as the strength of their recruiting classes from the past few years, and the value of any transfers they’ve added this season.

For a more complete description, check out our blog post from last year. This year featured no major changes, just a re-fitting of the model with another year of data.

Before we get to the rankings themselves, it’s worth noting that Ken Pomeroy has compared our conference win projections with his and a couple other stat-based prognosticators the last two years. In terms of average error, last year we finished second best out of four, and the year before we finished as the best of three by a whisker.

We say this not to brag, but to try to preemptively defend ourselves against the inevitable “Team X is WAY too high/low! You don’t know what you’re doing!” comments. While these are by no means perfect rankings, the projections they drive have more than held their own in comparisons with other top projection systems, and we expect them to do so again this season. We’re going to get plenty of individual teams wrong, but that’s inevitable when the challenge is to project on the order of 350 teams.

Preseason Top 25 Comparison

Let’s take a look at all the teams that made it into at least one preseason top 25 from among this group:

The table below lists all such teams, and shows the preseason rank in each system, along with an average rank (using 60th for the AP or 55th for the Coaches poll for unranked teams), and finally a column showing how far TR is from the consensus (positive numbers mean we project a team to rank better than the consensus, and negative is the reverse).

A few points stick out:

  • We rank Arizona #1, while Pomeroy has Duke, and Hanner and both polls have Kentucky
  • Our biggest pessimistic outliers are Connecticut and Harvard, both of which we rank about 20 spots lower than any other system
  • Our biggest optimistic outliers are Kansas State, Arkansas, and Maryland

Preseason Rankings Comparison
TeamTRKPDHAPCoachesAVGTR Diff
Arizona152222.41.4
Duke214432.80.8
Kentucky321111.6-1.4
Kansas445554.60.6
Louisville537896.41.4
Wisconsin663344.4-1.6
Florida776776.8-0.2
Villanova89812129.81.8
N Carolina920116610.41.4
Texas101912101012.22.2
Ohio St111413202015.64.6
Gonzaga121810131313.21.2
Iowa St132515141416.23.2
Virginia1489989.6-4.4
Wichita St151016111112.6-2.4
Michigan St161221181817.01.0
SMU173617222222.85.8
Kansas St183522322827.09.0
Oklahoma192827191922.43.4
VCU201718151617.2-2.8
San Diego St212914161719.4-1.6
Pittsburgh222329342927.45.4
Iowa233120282525.42.4
Arkansas244428333633.09.0
Maryland25323346--38.213.2
Utah284225253030.02.0
Michigan291524242323.0-6.0
Syracuse301123232422.2-7.8
Georgetown312231444234.03.0
Oklahoma St34214741--39.65.6
UCLA351335303329.2-5.8
Nebraska383336212129.8-8.2
Connecticut391619171521.2-17.8
Baylor402456--4745.45.4
Harvard493030252732.2-16.8

Full Rankings, From #1 To #351

Here’s the full list.

Keep in mind that sometimes teams can be separated by several ranking spots, but have nearly identical ratings. On the flip side of the coin, two teams can be ranked adjacent to each other, but can have a big ratings gap.

This is important at the top of the rankings this season. #1 Arizona, #2 Duke, and #3 Kentucky are separated by only half a ratings point total. But #4 Kansas is a full 1.6 ratings points behind Kentucky. So our preseason ratings essentially see a triumvirate of “best teams in the land.”

RankTeamRating
1Arizona21.3
2Duke21.1
3Kentucky20.8
4Kansas19.2
5Louisville19.2
6Wisconsin18.9
7Florida18.2
8Villanova16.7
9N Carolina16.6
10Texas16.4
11Ohio State15.9
12Gonzaga15.9
13Iowa State15.7
14Virginia14.4
15Wichita St13.9
16Michigan St13.9
17S Methodist13.8
18Kansas St13.7
19Oklahoma13.3
20VCU13.1
21San Diego St12.8
22Pittsburgh12.7
23Iowa12.5
24Arkansas12.5
25Maryland12.4
26Illinois12.4
27BYU12.3
28Utah11.7
29Michigan10.8
30Syracuse10.7
31Georgetown10.7
32Indiana10.7
33Memphis10.6
34Oklahoma St10.5
35UCLA10.5
36Colorado10.2
37N Iowa10.1
38Nebraska10.1
39Connecticut9.9
40Baylor9.9
41Creighton9.8
42NC State9.6
43Clemson9.5
44Mississippi9.3
45Alabama9.3
46Stanford9.2
47Minnesota9.2
48Florida St9.1
49Harvard8.9
50W Virginia8.8
51St Johns8.6
52Cincinnati8.4
53Purdue8.3
54Texas A&M8.1
55Marquette7.9
56St Marys7.9
57Georgia7.8
58California7.8
59Colorado St7.8
60Oregon7.5
61Lg Beach St7.4
62Tulsa7.2
63Georgia St7.2
64Geo Wshgtn7.2
65Tennessee7.1
66Xavier7.1
67Iona6.9
68Boise State6.9
69Notre Dame6.8
70LA Tech6.7
71New Mexico6.5
72Murray St6.5
73Dayton6.4
74WI-Grn Bay6.3
75LSU6.2
76Missouri6.1
77Butler6.0
78Wyoming6.0
79Penn State6.0
80Washington5.9
81Evansville5.9
82Miami (FL)5.9
83UNLV5.9
84UCSB5.9
85Providence5.8
86U Mass5.8
87Richmond5.7
88UC Irvine5.7
89Ste F Austin5.7
90N Mex State5.5
91Old Dominion5.4
92TX El Paso5.1
93Boston Col4.7
94Temple4.6
95Belmont4.6
96Arizona St4.5
97Saint Louis4.5
98Fresno St4.4
99S Carolina4.3
100Northwestern4.2
101St Bonavent4.0
102San Fransco4.0
103Seton Hall4.0
104La Salle4.0
105Portland4.0
106Buffalo3.7
107Cleveland St3.7
108Toledo3.7
109Wofford3.4
110Rhode Island3.3
111Vanderbilt3.3
112W Michigan3.2
113Siena3.0
114Denver3.0
115NC Central2.9
116S Mississippi2.9
117GA Tech2.9
118San Diego2.8
119Yale2.8
120Auburn2.8
121Coastal Car2.7
122Akron2.7
123Princeton2.7
124American2.7
125Texas Tech2.5
126Indiana St2.5
127Illinois St2.5
128Manhattan2.3
129Wash State2.2
130Wake Forest1.9
131Ohio1.8
132Miss State1.7
133Northeastrn1.7
134Columbia1.6
135North Dakota State1.6
136Santa Clara1.5
137VA Tech1.4
138Davidson1.4
139Kent State1.3
140TX Christian1.2
141St Josephs1.0
142Holy Cross1.0
143LA Lafayette0.9
144USC0.9
145Detroit0.8
146Middle Tenn0.7
147Geo Mason0.6
148W Kentucky0.5
149Duquesne0.5
150Bowling Grn0.5
151Morehead St0.5
152Bucknell0.4
153Cal Poly0.4
154Quinnipiac0.3
155Missouri St0.3
156Houston0.3
157Vermont0.2
158Central FL0.1
159Lafayette0.0
160Hampton0.0
161Charlotte-0.2
162Mercer-0.2
163Nevada-0.3
164SE Missouri-0.3
165Rutgers-0.3
166Valparaiso-0.3
167Stony Brook-0.4
168Drexel-0.4
169IPFW-0.5
170Fla Gulf Cst-0.6
171S Dakota St-0.6
172E Tenn St-0.6
173Air Force-0.7
174Wm & Mary-0.7
175E Carolina-0.7
176Charl South-0.8
177Army-0.9
178Brown-0.9
179Col Charlestn-1.0
180Loyola-Chi-1.0
181AR Lit Rock-1.1
182Drake-1.2
183E Washingtn-1.3
184Oral Roberts-1.3
185Lehigh-1.3
186Hartford-1.3
187NC-Wilmgton-1.4
188St Peters-1.4
189Dartmouth-1.4
190Pepperdine-1.4
191S Illinois-1.5
192E Kentucky-1.5
193WI-Milwkee-1.5
194Tulane-1.5
195Colgate-1.5
196Oakland-1.7
197Radford-1.7
198Seattle-1.8
199Cal St Nrdge-1.8
200Elon-1.8
201Weber State-1.8
202CS Fullerton-1.8
203Utah State-1.9
204TX-Arlington-1.9
205Oregon St-1.9
206UAB-1.9
207Monmouth-1.9
208Sam Hous St-1.9
209High Point-2.1
210Wright State-2.1
211DePaul-2.2
212Rob Morris-2.4
213Boston U-2.4
214N Illinois-2.5
215E Michigan-2.5
216Winthrop-2.6
217NW State-2.6
218Albany-2.7
219Fairfield-2.7
220N Arizona-2.7
221Lipscomb-2.7
222San Jose St-2.8
223South Carolina Upstate-2.8
224Fla Atlantic-2.8
225Hawaii-2.8
226Central Mich-2.8
227Delaware-2.9
228N Colorado-2.9
229N Florida-3.0
230Marshall-3.0
231St Fran (NY)-3.1
232S Florida-3.3
233Youngs St-3.3
234NC-Asheville-3.3
235Rider-3.4
236Miami (OH)-3.4
237Sac State-3.7
238Northern Kentucky-3.7
239Marist-3.7
240Fordham-3.7
241Hofstra-3.8
242Montana-4.0
243CS Bakersfld-4.1
244Idaho-4.2
245Gard-Webb-4.4
246TX Southern-4.4
247W Illinois-4.4
248Canisius-4.4
249Nebraska Omaha-4.5
250VA Military-4.5
251Loyola Mymt-4.5
252South Dakota-4.6
253Bryant-4.6
254Navy-4.7
255Incarnate Word-4.8
256Alabama St-4.9
257Bradley-4.9
258Pacific-4.9
259James Mad-4.9
260New Jersey Tech-5.0
261Southern-5.0
262North Texas-5.0
263Towson-5.1
264Portland St-5.3
265Central Conn-5.3
266Utah Val St-5.3
267LA Monroe-5.4
268Wagner-5.4
269Arkansas St-5.5
270St Fran (PA)-5.5
271TN Tech-5.7
272Ark Pine Bl-5.8
273U Penn-5.9
274TX A&M-CC-6.0
275W Carolina-6.2
276Austin Peay-6.4
277IL-Chicago-6.4
278Grand Canyon-6.5
279UC Davis-6.7
280Florida Intl-6.9
281UC Riverside-6.9
282S Alabama-7.1
283Idaho State-7.2
284Delaware St-7.2
285IUPUI-7.2
286SE Louisiana-7.3
287Loyola-MD-7.3
288Sacred Hrt-7.4
289Coppin State-7.4
290Texas State-7.4
291Mt St Marys-7.5
292Rice-7.6
293Jksnville St-7.6
294LIU-Brooklyn-7.6
295Chattanooga-7.8
296Morgan St-7.8
297Ball State-7.9
298GA Southern-7.9
299SIU Edward-8.0
300Norfolk St-8.2
301TN Martin-8.3
302Liberty-8.4
303E Illinois-8.5
304Campbell-8.5
305Howard-8.6
306NC-Grnsboro-8.6
307Savannah St-8.6
308Niagara-8.9
309North Dakota-9.0
310Jackson St-9.0
311McNeese St-9.0
312Montana St-9.1
313Troy-9.2
314TX-San Ant-9.3
315Stetson-9.3
316App State-9.4
317UMKC-9.6
318TN State-9.6
319Kennesaw St-9.7
320N Hampshire-9.7
321Alcorn State-9.9
322Binghamton-9.9
323Cornell-10.0
324Furman-10.3
325Nicholls St-10.4
326Beth-Cook-10.4
327Maryland BC-10.5
328TX-Pan Am-10.5
329Massachusetts Lowell-10.7
330Citadel-10.7
331Maine-11.1
332Chicago St-11.7
333F Dickinson-12.0
334Presbyterian-12.0
335Alab A&M-12.4
336NC A&T-12.5
337Prairie View-12.5
338New Orleans-13.3
339Lamar-13.3
340Maryland ES-13.4
341Houston Bap-13.4
342Jacksonville-13.6
343Samford-14.2
344Florida A&M-14.3
345S Car State-14.3
346S Utah-14.7
347Longwood-15.2
348Miss Val St-15.2
349Abilene Christian-17.1
350Central Ark-17.5
351Grambling St-19.7