NFL Week 8 Predictions, Rankings, and Tips: The Weekly Rundown

Here’s a rapid-fire list of weekly highlights from the vast array of NFL content we publish on TeamRankings. We’ll also share some predictions and picks for Week 8 and beyond.


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NFL Week 8 Power Rankings Update

Current NFL rankings

  • Surprise surprise, Denver is king. It doesn’t take fancy math to figure out that Denver is currently the undisputed best team in the NFL. The Broncos’ blowout of previously #3 San Francisco, coupled with a bad loss by Seattle, means that Denver is now almost three points better than any other team in the NFL in our Predictive ratings.

  • Reshuffling in the top five. In addition, statement wins by Indianapolis (27-0 over previously #9 Cincinnati) and Green Bay (38-17 over previously #16 Carolina) contributed to a major reshuffling in the pecking order of top teams. Seattle is now a distant #2 to Denver, with a pack of three teams (#3 Indy, #4 Green Bay, and #5 Baltimore) all rated about 1.5 points behind the Seahawks.
  • A bad week hurts three contenders. Trailing the current top five, and another step down in terms of ratings, is a trio of teams all hurt by worse-than-expected Week 7 results: #6 San Francisco, #7 New England (whose rating dropped about half a point after barely beating the Jets at home), and #8 San Diego.
  • The case for preseason ratings: San Diego edition. The Chargers’ last two game results provide a nice demonstration of how preseason ratings can add value to a predictive system. Entering Week 6, San Diego had the most impressive resume in the NFL in terms of game results. However, at that time we only rated them as the #4 team in the league, partly because our preseason ratings implied that the Chargers’ performance through just five games may have been impacted by good luck as well as skill. Since then, the Chargers lost to the Chiefs at home and almost lost to Oakland on the road.
  • The good but not great. Finally, there’s a cluster of six decent teams ranked #9 to #14. Four of these teams our Predictive ratings think are good, but not as good as their win-loss record currently implies (#9 Philadelphia, #10 Arizona, #11 Dallas, and #12 Detroit). The other two are #13 Cincinnati and #14 New Orleans. Arizona and Dallas both improved their ratings slightly in Week 7, while Detroit slipped a bit after nearly losing to the Saints at home.
  • The biggest loser: Cincinnati. The Bengals, unsurprisingly, took a big hit this week, dropping from #9 to #13 and losing more rating value than any other team. Cleveland was close behind, though, after losing to Jacksonville.
  • Wait, you think Cleveland is good? On the topic of Cleveland, it surprised us to read some media reports last week that heaped praise on the Browns, whom we had ranked at #21 in our Predictive ratings after Week 6. We obviously disagree, and last week’s result certainly didn’t prove anything to the contrary. Cleveland is now down to #24, and our projections currently only give the Browns a slim chance (12%) to make the playoffs. It’s still a possibility, though.

NFL Week 8 Season Projections Update

Current NFL season projections

  • Broncos have more than a 1-in-4 chance to win it all. Denver’s Super Bowl champion odds are now up to 27%, up from 21% last week. Those odds are almost three times better than the second most likely team to win it all — which, by the way, is no longer Seattle.
  • Green Bay bounces Seattle, Indy close. The honor of being Denver’s runner-up in NFL champion odds now goes to Green Bay, a team that has come a long way from its season opening debacle in Seattle. The Packers currently have 10% odds to win it all, up from 7% last week, benefitting from an implosion in the NFC West in Week 7. Indianapolis is also close behind the Packers at 9% to win it all, after an impressive last few weeks plus a slide by San Diego.
  • The other contenders. Other teams with the best Super Bowl odds include Seattle (down but not out at 7%), Baltimore (up to 7%), New England (down to 6%), and Dallas (6%). Close behind are San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Arizona (all at 5%).
  • And the longshots. According to our projections, there is only about a 14% chance (roughly 1-in-7) that a team not mentioned already in the three bullet points above wins the Super Bowl this year. So if your team hasn’t been named yet, good luck. Detroit, San Diego, and Cincinnati (all between 2-4% to win it all right now) are at the top of this longshot field.
  • AFC division winner projections. Our current projected division winners are New England (72% AFC East, vs. 78% last week, with a division win against the Jets more than offset by a ratings drop plus wins by Miami and Buffalo), Baltimore (66% AFC North, up from 48% last week after another blowout win and Cincinnati getting crushed), Indianapolis (a whopping 92% AFC South, up from 76% last week, after a big win and another Houston loss), and Denver (83% AFC West, vs. 66% last week, after a big win and a San Diego loss). So we’ve now got at least decently solid favorites in every division.
  • Other AFC division winner threats. There aren’t many. Of the rest of the AFC teams, Cincinnati, Miami, Buffalo and San Diego have the best odds to win their divisions, but those odds are low right now (20% for the Bengals, roughly 10% for the rest).
  • NFC division winner projections. Our current projected division winners are Dallas (59% NFC East, up from 49% last week after a division win over the Giants), Green Bay (62% NFC North, up from 55% after a strong win), Carolina (still at 53% NFC South despite a bad loss at Green Bay, since New Orleans also lost and Atlanta got blown out) and new favorite Arizona (42% NFC West, up from 28% after bad losses by both Seattle and San Francisco). In contrast to the AFC, the NFC doesn’t feature any 70%+ division winner favorites right now.
  • Other NFC division winner threats. Philadelphia, Detroit, New Orleans, Seattle, and San Francisco are all threats, each having 30%+ odds to win their respective divisions. Week 7’s results mean that the NFC West is now completely up for grabs (as long as your team name isn’t St. Louis), but the other three divisions have all settled into two-dog races. One possible exception is free-falling Atlanta, even with it’s 2-5 record, which still has a roughly 1-in-10 chance to win the NFC South, thanks to division leader Carolina only being 3-3-1.
  • You can probably count these teams out of the playoffs. Our season simulations currently give nine teams less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs, up from eight last week. Five teams (Jacksonville, Oakland, Washington, the New York Jets, and St. Louis, even despite the big win over Seattle) have been pretty much eliminated from playoff contention; none of them has better than a 1-in-100 chance to make the postseason. Tampa Bay (who rose from the dead, ever so slightly, this week), Tennessee, and Minnesota are on life support, with 1-2% odds to make the playoffs. Finally, ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the Chicago Bears back to this dubious club — although just barely, as they still have 9.6% odds to make the playoffs.

NFL Week 8 Pick’em Pools Update

Week 8 NFL pick’em pool picks

  • Tied again. Both our game winner picks and those of the public (we use the user consensus picks from ESPN’s pick’em game) went 10-5 last week. We had Pittsburgh over Houston, which the public got wrong. But we went for the upset pick with New Orleans over Detroit and (barely) lost it, while the public had the Lions.
  • Underrated picks score a couple wins. The five most underrated game winner picks of last week — defined as teams with the biggest differences between win odds and public picking percentage, as posted in our Week 7 Pick’em Data Grid — ended up doing slightly better than expected. Jacksonville was the #1 underrated pick of Week 7, with roughly 40% win odds yet only 7% picked by the public, and the Jags delivered a big upset. Another of the top five underrated picks, Miami over Chicago, also came through, while undervalued Cincinnati, Oakland, and the NY Giants all lost.
  • Last week’s advice. Our season prize pick’em advice last week was to pick Pittsburgh over Houston, which was a nice winner from a value perspective. We didn’t make a value upset pick for weekly prize pools, but the one team we highlighted as being undervalued and not being a total longshot (Cincinnati, against Indianapolis) got slaughtered.
  • Strategy for season prize pools. For Week 8, your best strategy in NFL pick’em pools that only have season prizes is to continue to remain conservative and not go crazy picking upsets. As of right now, there’s a very strong value play on the board this week, which is to pick the Vegas-favored Saints to beat the Packers in New Orleans. If you’ve got the guts, all you need to know is that New Orleans is currently only 27% picked against 57% win odds. The value here comes from Green Bay’s four game winning streak and the Saints’ poor win-loss record, but the Saints are likely better than their 2-4 record implies, and are playing at home.
  • Strategy for weekly prize pools. Pools that only offer weekly prizes call for a different strategy, one that needs to give much more weight to how your opponents are likely to pick this week. There are a couple value upset plays in Week 8 that warrant consideration in these types of pools, but they are a bit risky. Tennessee (42% win odds, 17% picked) over Houston is probably the best of the bunch. If that one happens to come through, you’ll get a nice boost against your opponents since the Titans are such an unpopular pick.
  • Strategy for YOUR pool. Just remember, the optimal strategy for your specific pool, including how many favorites vs. upsets you should pick this week, depends on a lot of factors: the number of entries in your pool, the rules, the scoring system, the payout structure. That’s why we developed our Football Pick’em Pools product to apply our analytics to your specific pool.

NFL Week 8 Survivor Pools Update

Week 8 NFL survivor pool picks

  • 34% of remaining entries go down. Seattle’s upset loss at St. Louis was a bruiser in survivor pools, as the Seahawks were the pick of about 22% of survivor entries nationwide. The Browns (9% picked) and Bears (3% picked) also knocked a decent chunk of people out.
  • We went conservative with New England and survived (with some luck). The best pick for maximizing your odds to win a Survivor pool (assuming you only had one entry) ended up being New England last week. Even though the Patriots were the most popular pick of the week, the fact that the public’s picks were spread across many teams placed more value on picking a less risky team. We advised the Pats across the board as our top pick and survived, even though it came down to the last second. So we roll on to Week 9.
  • Don’t pick these teams in Week 8! After several weeks of being spread out across many teams, the public’s survivor picks are overwhelmingly concentrated on Dallas this week. We don’t think the Cowboys are a terrible pick by any means, but given their extreme popularity, at least three or four other teams are better picks as of Wednesday.

NFL Week 8 Betting Picks & Game Predictions Update

Week 8 NFL game winner picks | Spread picks | Most likely upsets

  • More bad than good for playable betting picks. Our playable over/under picks went 3-2 against Sunday lines (1-1 on 3-star picks), while playable spread picks had a down week at 3-6 (2-2 on 3-star picks). Our top rated money line value picks — a slate of six underdogs — registered a tough luck week, only hitting on Jacksonville +181, while barely missing a nice potential payout on Minnesota +220 (undone by a game winning Buffalo TD with 2 seconds left) and losing New Orleans +111 (who blew a 13-point lead with 5 minutes left and lost by one).
  • Season performance update. That performance means our playable rated NFL spread picks against Sunday lines are now 30-28 for the year, while playable over/under picks are 21-22. 2-star money line picks are -3.7 units for the season based on a flat-betting strategy, while all starred money line picks are currently -7.6 units. It’s been a bit of a tough run the last several weeks.
  • High variance for low confidence picks. The variance we’ve seen so far this season between our low-confidence spread picks and totals picks has been pretty extreme. Our low-confidence spread picks against Sunday lines have been brutal at 15-30-3 (33.3%), while our low-confidence over/under picks have been crushing it at 37-24-2 (60.7%). We expect both accuracy rates to converge toward expectations as time goes on. Too bad office pools for NFL over/under picks aren’t popular, though.
  • Game winner picks lagging the public. As mentioned in the pick’em section above, both our models and the public picked the same number of game winners correctly this week. As of now we’re 67-38-1 picking game winners, which lags the ESPN user consensus by four wins, three of which came during Week 1.
  • Fewer upsets than expected for the fifth week in a row. Out of the 11 games listed on our Most Likely Upsets page, we expected around four upsets in Week 7. Three happened, including the most likely upset in games with a spread of more than three points, according to our models: Jacksonville (a 4-point underdog) over Cleveland.
  • Don’t call them the Week 8 locks of the week. The top confidence game winner picks from our models are currently Dallas at home over Washington (80%), Denver at home over San Diego (78%), and Kansas City at home over St. Louis (74%).
  • Most likely Week 8 upsets. The most likely upset of the week according to our models is currently Baltimore over Cincinnati, with a 52% chance of happening. (As of Wednesday, the Bengals are a 1-point favorite in Vegas, but our models like Baltimore.) The most likely upset of a Vegas favorite of more than three points is currently Atlanta over Detroit, with a 42% chance of happening.

One-Day Fantasy Challenge Update

Enter our Week 8 NFL contest | Current season standings

  • platinum8008 takes the gold in Week 7. User platinum8008 won our 185-entry Week 7 NFL contest on FanDuel, besting second place finisher hailmary22 by almost 9 points with this lineup, which included five players that scored more than 20 points.
  • Almost a season record! platinum8008’s score of 169.1 came within one point of beating gebarriga‘s season high score record! So close. But it’s still good for a free Football Season Pass to TeamRankings ($249) in addition to a 100% profit on the contest entry fee.
  • 54% of entries won cash. Thanks to our guaranteed prize pool, 100 of the 185 entrants in this past week’s contest doubled their entry fee, including us (we came in 20th place). That at least makes up for our pathetic performance in Week 6, when we forgot to enter our top lineup.
  • Come play with us! We want you to get in on all the Week 8 action with us. Another 100 entries will win cash this week, and this is your chance to beat the TR Nerds head to head. Claim your spot now in our weekly tournament.