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NFL Prediction Performance
| Season Results | 80%+ odds | 70-79% odds | 60-69% odds | 50-59% odds | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 25-3 (89.3%) |
40-16 (71.4%) |
51-29 (63.7%) |
56-47 (54.4%) |
172-95 (64.4%) |
| Last 3 Weeks | 0-0 (0.0%) |
0-1 (0.0%) |
1-0 (100.0%) |
3-2 (60.0%) |
4-3 (57.1%) |
| Super Bowl | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Divisional | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Wild Card | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Week 17 | 4-0 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 2-5 | 10-6 |
| Week 16 | 0-0 | 2-1 | 4-5 | 0-4 | 6-10 |
| Week 15 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 11-5 |
| Week 14 | 4-0 | 6-1 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 11-5 |
| Week 13 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 4-1 | 3-3 | 10-6 |
| Week 12 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 5-1 | 2-3 | 10-6 |
| Week 11 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 5-1 | 4-2 | 12-4 |
| Week 10 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 2-2 | 10-4 |
| Week 9 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 4-1 | 4-2 | 11-3 |
| Week 8 | 2-0 | 4-2 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 8-6 |
| Week 7 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 4-1 | 11-3 |
| Week 6 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 7-7 |
| Week 5 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1-4 | 4-2 | 8-6 |
| Week 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 5-1 | 9-4 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 3-0 | 4-2 | 4-0 | 13-3 |
| Week 2 | 0-0 | 1-0 | 3-1 | 5-5 | 9-6 |
| Week 1 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 3-2 | 5-3 | 10-6 |
Note: 0-0 = Right-Wrong
Week 12 NFL Picks Performance Review
11.26.08
Algorithmic NFL picks went 7-8-1 ATS overall in Week 12, and 3-5-1 at the 55%+ cover odds threshold. No particular pattern seems to emerge from last week's results. NFL predictions at 55%+ cover odds are currently six games below .500 with five weeks left in the regular season, so the season prediction performance still has time to recover.
Interestingly, the total number of of 55%+ odds to cover predictions so far this season is trailing 2007's total number by a decently large margin, a situation we intend to investigate more in the offseason. Straight up picks were 10-6, an acceptable performance vs. benchmarks, including picking New Orleans to win the Monday night game against the Packers, which most experts did not.
Week 11 NFL Picks Performance Review
11.18.08
Week 11 was a very strong week for our algorithmic NFL picks. With no less than five 60%+ cover odds games on the line, the model went 4-1 ATS, counting the underdog Cincinnati +9.5 pick as a cover in the tie game. In addition, the model correctly predicted both the New York Jets' upset of the Patriots and the Browns' upset of the Bills on Monday night.
Overall, the algorithmic NFL picks were 6-3 ATS in 55%+ cover odds games and 12-3-1 straight up, counting the Eagles/Bengals game as a tie. After a slow start this season, 55%+ odds to cover NFL picks are now 15-11 (57.7%) over the last three weeks.
Week 10 NFL Picks Performance Review
11.13.08
55%+ odds to cover NFL predictions were 5-5 ATS last week and mild opinions were 1-3 ATS. It was a tough week, as Cleveland giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter and Oakland coming up one point short derailed two of our 60%+ odds to cover picks. However, the 55-59% cover odds segment saved the day at 5-2 ATS.
Our straight up algorithmic NFL picks were 10-4 and continue to outperform the ESPN and Yahoo! Experts, save a tie with Chris Mortensen of ESPN.
Week 9 NFL Picks Performance Review
11.06.08
After a slow start in what has been a wild NFL season in terms of results, our algorithmic ATS predictions rebounded somewhat in week nine, going 4-3 in 55%+ odds to cover games. Losing the 60%+ Titans pick at -3.5 by half a point was tough to swallow, but that's how it goes.
We've found that the majority of honest and smart handicappers that we follow, including those that charge $1,000 or more for a season of picks, are also having sub-50% years so far. It's certainly been an odd year, but we've made a few tweaks to our models that we hope will improve ATS prediction performance for the rest of the season.
Our straight up NFL game predictions are 86-44 (66.2%) for the season. That mark currently bests seven out of the eight ESPN NFL experts who post picks, all three Yahoo! Sports NFL experts, and the consensus picks of both the ESPN and Yahoo! Sports user populations.